Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 01-29-2015
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) Through the prior close... Overnight action''s new info... If, then... First Trade... Can''t keep a downtrend up. The overnight bounce to within 1 tick of this morning''s 2003.25 bias-up signal''s resistance had reacted down to 1992.00. The pre-open bounce to 1999.00 had retraced the dip by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. That''s big resistance, too. Only the open''s noise pierced it, and only momentarily. Its test launched another downleg to 1985.50. Reacting up to 1997.75 resistance kept the 1990.75 bias-down signal overlapped through 10:15, invoking the grace period. It held at 10:30, triggering "late no-bias." So, this morning''s 1990.75 bias-down signal should define the morning range''s lower-end. The bias-down signal can be probed, along with new lows. In fact, since yesterday afternoon''s sellers gained traction for their efforts, this morning''s bias environment SHOULD probe new lows. And new lows ARE being probed. The 1984.00 bias-down target was never put into play, but it has been probed to within 1 point of its room for noise at to 1981.00. Recovering to 1990.75 would help to form a bullish "Pivot Reversal" session -- gapping up in a downtrend, and closing above the open''s highs, after recovering from an interim dip to new trend lows -- but only if that recovery were to extend back above the open''s highs, and also above the 2003.00 overnight highs for good measure. But after "tagging up" with a retest of the 1990.75 bias-down signal, the decline could still resume, in a very big way. And tagging up at all would be unlikely if the bias environment were exited under the open''s 1985.50 low. 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap. Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) If Thursday''s Pivot Reversal doesn''t extend the recovery immediately... then it''s a failed setup. A failed setup, after fully forming, typically becomes as bearish as it had potential to be bullish.. Pattern points... (Setups and technicals) That''s half the equation to a recovery -- fulfilling and trapping sellers. The other half of the equation is to reverse the trend back up, and we had to give buyers leeway for that. The afternoon''s rally was still overlapping the relevant level when it was time to override the no-bias signal, but we trusted it and it extended 18 more points anyway. Extending high enough could have overridden the late start, the relevant level was once again being overlapped when exceeding it would have been decisive. Finally, the recovery did extend a lot, as was expected if the recovery happened at all. But it stopped a little short of touching its minimum objective. At least the minimum objective wasn''t tested and rejected. And at least the morning''s high was exceeded, which formed a bullish Pivot Reversal setup. But Friday''s open must still prove that Thursday''s upward momentum has gained traction, and not just refueled sellers. If sellers are refueled, then they''ll be happy to soon learn that support has been chipped away. What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)Pre-Open Stock Market Plan - 7:56 AM
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Wednesday afternoon''s portion of the intraday slide measured 40 points from high to low. The 1996.25 cash session close was considered a hold-short, and the futures close extended down to 1991.25. Despite the final hour''s entry being within the bias environment''s range, sellers still gained traction because the 3:10-3:20 window trended down to fresh lows that confirmed the bias environment''s bearish exit.
Initially bouncing through midnight to 1997.25 suddenly plunged to 1988.00. That was recovered by a fresh high at 1999.00. Its reaction down attacked 1991.25, but 1997.25-1999.00 attracted price right back up again. Now 1999.00 is being tested as support by a reaction down from 2003.00. That''s just within 1 tick of the resistance of this morning''s 2003.25 bias-up signal.
One yesterday''s last critical observations was not to trust the bounce coming out of the bias environment. It had slowed the drop''s pace and was 10 points higher, but it had not recovered a prior high. The same can be said in principle about the overnight bounce. Sellers gained traction yesterday, so fresh lows are in store unless the open were to gap up above a prior high. And this overnight bounce is nowhere near a prior high. Gapping up might still be bullish if an intraday probe of fresh lows were recovered to close back above the open.
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.00 would be likely to trigger the 2003.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1997.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. And exiting the open under 1986.75 would be likely to trigger the 1990.75 bias-down.
Stock Market Opening Thoughts - 11:13 AM
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Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 12:02 PM
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2000.00
...would target 2014.75
2008.00
Bias-down: under 1984.50
1987.75
...would target 1987.75
1981.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Daily Spot - 3:29 PM
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Thursday''s narrowly ranging session created no signal. Bottoming still gets a benefit of the doubt, but there is currently no signal either way.
Gapping down Thursday to 1271.00 and extended down to 1255.00, losing $33 intraday, makes the topping pattern unlikely to probe a fresh high before the downleg begins. This IS the downleg. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm at least 1229.00 is in-play, if not also the 1190.00 area.
Gapping down Thursday and extending sharply lower may fulfill the outstanding requirement to probe new lows, before neutralizing the recent high''s ineffectual pessimism. Closing back above 17.28 would put the high''s retest back into play.
Wednesday''s surge was corrected Thursday, but not rejected, and not confirmed. Gapping down left outstanding a retest of Wednesday''s 151-14 close. A fresh high remains possible, presumably visiting 151-28, before a reversal down would be credible. Closing under 149-14 would signal a reversal down underway already anyway.
Thursday''s probe of fresh lows didn''t extend down. Wednesday''s close was still being tested at Thursday''s close, so Wednesday''s breakout was not confirmed. Again. That''s not a buy signal, and the sequence can repeat indefinitely, but it does undermine the decline''s momentum.
Thursday''s EIA report was greeted from the least strong position possible, while still having some strength. That didn''t prevent reacting down to a new low.. There is no immediate buy signal, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm a breakout..
Session Wrap - 4:38 PM
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Thursday''s recovery was a thing of beauty when it came to both fulfilling and trapping sellers. Wednesday''s sellers got control of Thursday morning''s bias environment, during which they held tests of lower targets. But their timing had already suggested they were weak-handed sellers that wouldn''t gain traction.
This being a Friday, the morning''s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. Trending is difficult to begin, and more difficult to stop.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:42 PM
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