Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 02-25-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Having ignored the open's window for recovering immediately, Wednesday's gap down extended deeper to its next support at 1890.00. Multiple tests held through the morning's bias environment, and its exit surged to fresh post-open highs. That fulfilled a bullish setup likely to end the day much higher -- and the cash session touched 1929.25. Buyers gained traction. Overnight action's new info... Extending higher into and out of the close soon touched 1938.50. Reversing down into and out of Europe's opens almost touched 1920.00 before recovering back to and through yesterday's highs, now testing 1936.00. If, then... Rewarding yesterday's buyers for having gained traction would probe higher this morning, or at least recover a knee-jerk reaction down from surprising news. The minimum upside objective is to retest overbought RSIs at Monday afternoon's 1943.75 high, probably up to 1946.00, and potentially to 1952.00-1953.00. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1936.75 would be likely also to exceed the 1934.25 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1931.25 would be likely to trigger the 1927.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Rewarding yesterday's buyers isn't being prioritized. The open's 6-point surge up to 1936.50 was brief and quickly retraced. Retraced and reversed down to and through the 1927.25 bias-up signal on the way to 1922.00. A bounce recovered 1927.25 in time to invoke the grace period, but it was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. Not no-bias, which would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And not bias-up. Up still still seems likelier than down. The bigger picture still suggests probing Monday's 1943.75 high, despite having reacted down this morning from touching its range. Continually recovering to probe above yesterday's 1929.25 high suggests this morning's bias environment intends to reward yesterday afternoon's buyers. And a clean rejection of both bias-up parameters was itself rejected. Having said that, 1927.25 should hold as support. Probing it by several ticks would suggest something much more bearish is beginning to overwhelm the bullish influences.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1937.25 1934.25 ...would target  1942.50  1939.75 Bias-down: under  1926.25  1923.50 ...would target 1920.75  1917.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED ABOVE BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Finally probing the open's highs. The morning's bias environment exit was probing a couple of prior relative highs, but not yet recovering the open's surge. That would have been a more bullish setup. The afternoon's 1934.25 bias-up signal was attacked to within 1 tick during the 3 minutes either way of the 1:20 timing window. That would have been more bullish, too. 1934.25 was being pierced at 1:30 to essentially invalidate the no-bias environment. A little more decisively would have been a lot more bullish. None of which has prevented extending anyway back through the overnight high to touch the 1939.75 bias-up target. If not for the market's ongoing bullish context, we might not be participating in this afternoon's move.

I always take special notice of similar price action that develops during consecutive timing windows. That's two-thirds of a pattern, so I want to be prepared for it to repeat. Prepared, and positioned. Sessions are timing windows, too. So it's interesting that Thursday's pattern duplicated Wednesday's recovery in some key ways. Both mornings were under pressure, recovered by surging above prior relative highs, which was rewarded by rallying into the close.

That's accumulation. Not basing, which would launch a durable upleg. But accumulation that earns the reward of extending higher. The two setups differed, too. Wednesday's recovery developed upon exiting the morning's bias environment, while Thursday's surge didn't develop until entering the afternoon's bias environment. Thursday morning's dip held above prior lows and fluctuated around unchanged, while Wednesday's had ventured out onto the precipice. Another difference is that Thursday afternoon's rally fulfilled its minimum upside attraction at 1946.00, and extended to within 1-2 points of its potential to 1952.00-1953.00. Wednesday afternoon's rally was constrained only by available time, and even then extended through the close. So, extending higher early Friday is likely, that being the likely resolution to the two-day pattern of intraday recoveries. Maintaining early gains is not at all assured, being so near the next higher objective. Reacting down early from testing 1952.00-1953.00 (or even probing above it) could trend down hard into the close. Not reacting down would more likely trend up into the afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1954.50 1951.75 ...would target  1960.75  1958.00 Bias-down: under  1944.75  1942.00 ...would target 1939.75 1937.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.