Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 04-21-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... An overnight rally to 2098.00 had pulled back just enough to avoid gapping up at Wednesday's open. That created an objective at 2088.25, which was attacked to within 5 ticks before OPEC's headlines triggered a surge to fresh highs above 2100.00. We knew to expect the rally's failure since it was no-bias trending, and since Tuesday's buyers had not gained traction. Waiting until 2105.25 only exacerbated the failure, which almost 10 points into the close. Overnight action's new info... A slightly lower low at 2095.00 was recovered 2104.00 into midnight. That steady recovery has been replaced by a choppy decline back to yesterday's 2096.50 cash session close. Its reaction up is now testing 2100.00. The ECB monetary decision and Draghi's always-volatile press conference still lie ahead. If, then... The retest of last year's last relative high at 2110.00 is very close. More than touching it is likely before reacting down durably, but only attacking it could react down substantially. Yesterday's no-bias trending is the work of overly-optimistic weak hands, which appears more often before turning points. If yesterday's late plunge was a warning shot, then exiting today's open any lower could target yesterday morning's "unfinished business below" at 2088.25 and lower. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2103.50 would be likely to trigger the 2101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2088.25 would be likely to trigger the 2093.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Post-open slide flushes out sellers. Greeting the open at yesterday's 2096.25 cash session close was able only to touch 2098.50 resistance. Its reaction down triggered sell signals that extended to 2089.25. Another tick would have neutralized the attraction to yesterday's "unfinished business below" at 2088.25. Meanwhile, the 2093.00 bias-down signal triggered late bias-down. Officially. But that was for the sake of a singe tick, one minute too late. So, don't dismiss recovery potential -- it may be a noN-bias, so trending sponsorship can be strong-handed. In fact, a 4-point bounce off of 2089.50 was retraced right back down to 2089.25, which launched another bounce. This one has extended to 2097.50. So, unless the bias environment were exited back under the 2093.00 bias-down signal, flat-to-higher ranging is likely.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2103.50 2097.50 ...would target  2109.00  2103.00 Bias-down: under  2095.75  2089.75 ...would target 2088.75 2082.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing lower and lower lows. This morning's 2093.00 bias-down signal officially triggered late. Recovering it at 10:30 would have invalidated it, but that was missed by 1 tick. And by 1 minute. A bounce tested 2097.50. But the decline resumed, and this afternoon's 2089.75 bias-down signal triggered late. Unlike this morning, fresh lows were confirming it at 10:30. Yesterday's "unfinished business below" at 2088.25 has been met. This morning's 2087.50 bias-down target has been met. And now this afternoon's 2082.75 bias-down target is in-play.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2097.00 2091.00 ...would target  2102.25 2096.25 Bias-down: under 2087.75  2081.75 ...would target  2081.50  2075.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The 3:10-3:20 window certainly didn't trend down to fresh lows. The 2082.25 low was attacked, but not probed. The session's last 60-90 minutes only ranged choppily sideways ahead of post-close earnings from GOOG and MSFT. The cash session's last minute spiked up to 2088.75 and then back down to the afternoon's 2082.25 low. Breaking lower after the futures close plunged to 2078.75. Regardless of the post-close plunge, sellers gained no traction Thursday, and no unfinished business below as left outstanding. Unlike the prior two sessions, Friday's open need not gap up to launch a rally. So, gapping down anyway would be doubly-bearish. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.