Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 06-02-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Not gapping up Wednesday had precluded the rally from trending up above the prior day's range. Greeting the open at the prior day's lows created a lot of room for rallying within its range. First, probing under the prior day's lows had to be recovered. But positive territory had been recovered well before the afternoon's Beige Book news, whose knee-jerk reaction down also resolved up. The prior day's range was maintained, and the intraday rally didn't gain traction for its efforts. Overnight action's new info... Blipping up from the 2097.00 was reversed down 7 points through midnight to attack 2091.00. Already firming into Europe's opens, now 2097.00 has been recovered. If, then... Wednesday's intraday rally was limited because Tuesday's late rally had not gained traction. Wednesday's rally was able to develop because of the room created by gapping down. Thursday would be able to rally above Wednesday's range by gapping up above it. Today's ECB event (with Mario Draghi press conference) and OPEC meeting offer plenty of catalyst for gapping either up, or down. The upside potential remains unchanged at 2016.00-2018.00, while downside potential would face tough support at Tuesday and Wednesday's lows. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2089.50 would be likely to trigger the 2090.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 10:15 above 2102.00 would be likely to trigger the 2099.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2101.75 2099.75 ...would target  2109.00  2107.00 Bias-down: under 2092.75  2090.75 ...would target 2086.25  2084.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another pre-open dip recovers post-open lower lows. Yesterday's open was greeted by an overnight slide that then extended deeper to probe under Tuesday's lows. That test held, recovering through the balance of the morning. Today's open was greeted somewhat similarly. The slide was only back down to the overnight low, which wasn't very deep. But there was post-open follow-through, as a 7-point plunge to 2086.75.

The 2090.75 bias-down signal didn't trigger, nor was it rejected, instead still being overlapped for yet another noN-bias environment. No particular bias result is required or in-play.

A buy signal has pushed price back up to its 2093.50 post-open high. Pushing through would be likely to probe above yesterday's highs. Otherwise, any fresh low could soon probe under yesterday's low, too.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2100.00  2099.00 ...would target  2108.25  2106.25 Bias-down: under  2093.25 2091.25 ...would target  2086.25 2084.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Filling the gap back to the close, feeling its resistance. The initial post-open probe under overnight lows has recovered to fill the gap back to yesterday's 2097.00 close. The 2099.00 bias-up signal wasn't touched before triggering no-bias, so extending higher will need to be delayed until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.

Overbought RSIs at the recovery high require its eventual retest. The balance of the bias environment may simply hover back down to 2095.00 awaiting that window for extending higher. A deeper reaction has room down to 2093.00 before suggesting anything more substantial underway.

Regardless, extending higher at all today would be vulnerable to extending higher aggressively. Sunday night's 2103.75 "new Globex trend extreme" requires an eventual intraday retest, and the delay may be compensated by probing well above it. Still not rallying during the final hour would start to look toppy.

Patterns often are counter-intuitive. Hovering at 2101.00 through Thursday's bias environment's exit, instead of trending up, still reflected optimism. Extending up to 2102.25 into the final half-hour reflected pessimism for being only slightly higher. But the multi-session pattern has recovered from its opening dip back up to its midweek low. And only back up to its opening dip. That's restrained optimism, which keeps alive potential for reacting favorably to Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report. A next-to-last minute dip to 2099.25 reflected more pessimism, "ineffectual pessimism" whose reaction down held above prior lows. That potential pent-up buying pressure was already spent by a last-minute surge up to 2104.00. and that neutralized the outstanding Globex trend extreme's attraction. None of which prevents a negative resolution or negative knee-jerk reaction to the news. but all of which suggests a bullish resolution from a contrary perspective. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2105.00 2103.00 ...would target  2111.50  2109.50 Bias-down: under  2097.50 2095.50 ...would target 2090.00  2088.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.