Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 08-05-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap up above Wednesday's tractionless rally enabled the rally to probe higher without bearish consequence. As for utilizing that ability, not so much. An 8-point reaction down from 2162.00 was recovered entirely into the noon hour's 2163.50 peak, just short of the 2164.25 overnight high. Anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report inhibited trending higher. Another 8-point drop in the afternoon ended at 2158.00-2159.00. No traction was gained, but "unfinished business below" was left outstanding at 2150.50. Overnight action's new info... Thursday afternoon's 8-point drop from 2163.50 was recovered entirely by midnight, where it awaited Europe's opens. That triggered a surge to fresh high at 2165.25, which had been Thursday afternoon's bias-up signal, so resistance. Its 4-point reaction back down to the surge's origin is now being recovered. If, then... Yesterday's price action suggested the market wants to respond bullishly to this morning's Employment Situation report, regardless of the week's "unfinished business below.". Trending up relentlessly overnight doesn't change that intent, but it increases the consequences of not reacting bullishly to the news. No traction was gained yesterday, so maintaining a gap open Friday beyond either end of Thursday's 2154.00-2164.00 range would be likely to trend in that direction. If down, then unfinished business below would be in-play at 2150.50 and 2141.50. Any rally would be likely to extend to retest Sunday night's 2177.75 "new Globex trend extreme.". First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are available before an Employment Situation report.

Perfect storm extends pre-open surge. The Employment Situation report reaction had essentially spiked up 6 points to 2168.00 resistance. So long as that wasn't rejected, just standing still would mean the market had discounted a growing likelihood for a rate hike.And that comfort level would become uncomfortable, as the market would scramble to buy. Greeting the open at 2168.00 touched a pullback limit at 2166.50 before quickly recovering to fresh highs. The market is a quick learner. The quick recovery became a substantial recovery, testing the 2171.25 bias-up target and then probing it to test 2175.50.

So, now what? Does the market continue its realization that a rate hike is priced in, and continue rallying into the afternoon? Probably something like that. NEVER underestimate the influence of weekend illiquidity getting exponentially closer with each passing minute. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate before so near the weekend.

Sunday night's "new Globex trend extreme" at 2177.75 requires an intraday retest. Being in its orbit, probing above all prior intraday highs, its test is likely before any durable reaction down. Retesting Sunday night's high before entering the afternoon bias environment would be vulnerable to reversing down into the weekend. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate before so near the weekend. It's also difficult to stop once generated, if the trend's objective is already met.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2182.75 2178.00 ...would target  2188.50  2184.00 Bias-down: under  2174.50  2170.00 ...would target 2167.75  2163.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Shallow range at the highs. Sunday's 2177.75 Globex trend extreme was touched during the noon hour, along with this afternoon's 2178.00 bias-up signal. Both held. The trend extreme is likely to be tested more substantially than by piercing it only by 1 tick. Probing above it, and above the bias-up signal during a no-bias environment, would be vulnerable to reversing back down. Vulnerable to reversing back down, but that reversal must be obvious as the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30. NEVER underestimate the prevailing trend's persistence of Friday trending, especially when counter-trending isn't already taking control during the afternoon. But exiting the bias environment back under the 2174..25 area could melt down into the close. Trending is difficult to reverse on Friday afternoons. Counter-trending is difficult to stop then, too.  

Friday morning's gap up did everything needed to suggest it was headed higher. Everything, meaning nothing. Simply maintaining a gap up above all prior highs through the open tends to marginalize sellers for the morning. Actually, Friday's gap up also extended higher during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, which was helpful confirmation, but not necessary. Friday afternoon did nothing, too. But its only predictive value is in it being a new trend high close. On Fridays, that requires eventually there to produce another new trend high close. Not necessarily immediately, but eventually. So, an interim pullback is possible. An interim pullback is also likely. One reason is the multi-week range that is likely to abruptly reject probes above it. A second reason is that Friday's high satisfied the only outstanding attraction above by retesting last Sunday's Globex trend extreme. Which informs the third reason for probably not extending higher Monday -- since that highest outstanding objective was only neutralized, but held as resistance through the close. Or, not. We'll discuss the potential upside, whether momentary or extended, at this weekend's Saturday Review. Join us at 9:30 am ET, its link will be emailed overnight. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2184.75 2180.00 ...would target  2190.00  2185.50 Bias-down: under  2175.50  2171.00 ...would target 2169.25  2164.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.