Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 11-03-2016

. Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open had recovered overnight up to 2104.00-2105.00 after dropping 10 points under it. The overnight dip had stopped short of retesting Tuesday's 2091.00 low as required by its oversold RSIs. The open's rally attempt only reached 2106.50 before reversing down into and out of the afternoon's FOMC policy statement. The afternoon's 2088.00 bias-down target was pierced by 1 tick, taking RSIs oversold again. Its reaction attacked 2100.00, but only briefly as the close trended back down to attack the low. Overnight action's new info... Initially bouncing was resisted upon testing Tuesday night's 2095.00 support as resistance. Suddenly plunging extended down to 2084.00. The probe under prior lows was a singular leg, so not a "new Globex trend extreme" that would otherwise require intraday retest. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, helping to launch a recovery that has probed more than 6 points into positive territory attacking 2099.00. If, then... Did last night's drop to 2084.00 satisfy the decline targeting 2082.00? Similar to the room it has down to 2077.50, resistance above it begins at 2084.50. Its test last night would qualify. If retested, the objective would target the noise range's 2077.50 lower-end. In any case, isolating the probe of fresh trend lows to the overnight window -- as is currently indicated by having recovered into positive territory -- could begin a multi-session momentum reversal back up. Just in time for tomorrow's Employment Situation report. But anything more than retesting yesterday's oversold RSIs at its low must be avoided, if not negative territory altogether. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2101.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2091.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

noN-bias takes the edge away from sellers. Ranging around this morning's 2095.50 bias-down signal began reacting down into and out of the open, Bouncing to attack 2098.00 was reversed down to 2091.50, twice. But the 2095.50 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was being retested at 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is not bias-up requiring fresh highs. It is not no-bias requiring fresh lows. It is noN-bias, requiring nothing. Fresh highs above 2097.00-2098.00 (being tested now) would still be credible for extending higher, isolating the overnight dip, and eventually rallying more obviously this afternoon. Breaking under 2093.00 would still be credible for probing lower, but not necessarily so low as to reinstate the decline.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2105.00  2099.00 ...would target  2110.75  2105.00 Bias-down: under  2095.50 2089.75 ...would target  2088.75  2082.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour lows not recovering. This morning's noN-bias environment only ranged choppily, which is normal. But when the environment came within view of lapsing, the ranging persisted. And when the environment began lapsing, the range persisted. Extending the overnight recovery was becoming less and less likely. In fact, a break lower into the noon hour fell 7 points to test the setup's 1286.25 target. Isolating the probe to the noon hour could have been as bullish as the overnight dip's isolation could have been. But neither seems to be. This afternoon's 1289.75 bias-down signal triggered, and an attempt to invalidate it just failed. Trending aggressively would be unusual ahead of tomorrow morning's Employment Situation report. So, while a recovery today may not be likely, a bottom today is still possible. But bottoming at all isn't required, as that needed at least to greet Payrolls already in rally mode.

Anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report didn't paralyze price action. At least, not everyone's -- only buyers. Thursday morning failed to trigger bias-up and the afternoon triggered bias-down. Interestingly, the 2082.00 bias-down target was met, and the room for noise under it down to 2077.50 was attacked to within almost 2 points. Its reaction up to only 2084.50 suggests the target remains in-play. And if tested in reaction to payrolls, the market will have a big decision to make on whether to enter the weekend. Either ride the roller coaster back up in a short-squeeze, or hang on for dear life. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2094.50 2088.75 ...would target  2101.00  2095.50 Bias-down: under  2087.50  2082.00 ...would target 2082.50  2076.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.