Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 12-14-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap up to Monday's 2259.00 high was not rejected, all but dictating the balance of the session's direction. Which was up. A lot. The 2270.00 objective to retesting Sunday night's high was exceeded, only once, and by 3 points going into the afternoon bias environment. It reacted down to 2265.50 coming out of the afternoon bias environment, and a bounce back up to 2270.00 held its retest as price ranged sideways through the last 60-90 minutes. Overnight action's new info... A narrower version of the sideways ranging of yesterday's last timing window has persisted overnight. Lows have touched 2265.00, while the range's upper-end has been defined by 2268.25 -- which is being retested now. If, then... Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs during the formation of yesterday afternoon's 2273.00 high suggests it will be retested. Only 1-minute RSI was actually overbought during its highest bar, but closing within proximity of it has reinforced its attraction. Trending ahead of an FOMC statement would be unusual, so the overnight paralysis represents some degree of normality. But rallying relentlessly for seven days ahead of the event makes today far from normal, today already being the most opportunistic day of trade setups. Currently, no "unfinished business above" remains outstanding, and no defensive posturing ahead of this afternoon's events suggests more upside into and/or out of them. Some negative reaction should be part of the mix at some point, and probably also some fresh high. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.75 would be unlikely to trigger this morning's 2270.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2272.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight dip extends, briefly. Breaking under the overnight range's lower-end probed under yesterday's late 2265.50 lows down to 2262.75. Its post-open reaction touched 2267.75 before reversing back down, targeting a probe under the pre-open low. It was probed by 1 point down to 2261.75. The reversal's timing touched the 2264.00 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. And after another retest of the low, 2264.00 was tested again. Tested again, but still being tested when the grace period lapsed at 10:30.

This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-down targeting 2258.00. Not a no-bias targeting a test of the 2270.75 bias-up signal. it is noN-bias, without any bias requirement this morning.

Fresh lows would still be likely to test 2258.00. Extending higher would still be likely to test 2270.75. Any resolution at all is hampered by strong-handed sponsorship generally sidelined just before a high-profile event like this afternoon's FOMC.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2271.75  2266.75 ...would target  2276.50 2271.75 Bias-down: under  2264.00 2259.25 ...would target  2257.75  2252.75 Signal status:LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FOMC statement just moments away. This morning's noN-bias environment eventually dipped to 2260.25, still short of its potential to 2258.00. That's more paralysis than pessimism ahead of the FOMC policy statement coming in 15 minutes. Bouncing into and out of the noon hour triggered a late bias-up above 2266.75. The signal is still being overlapped, having produced only a 1 tick fresh high above the open's 2267.75 peak. Regardless of the statement's particulars, reaction to it should be volatile, with a likelihood of probing fresh highs and also swinging into negative territory, both. Neither directly is likelier to precede the other, or not to be followed again by the other. And Yellen's conference should start the process again.

Wednesday's deep post-FOMC drop from 2272.50 probed at least twice under Monday's 2247.00 low. The tests held through the close -- or, at least, Wednesday's close was not below them. That keeps price in the interim high's orbit, and keeps the door open to retesting it. It doesn't have to be retested. There already was no "unfinished business above" coming into Wednesday's session. Higher attractions were created intraday, but already neutralized. The last one was the 2271.75 bias-up target, which was pierced by 3 ticks at the high. Two other reasons for retesting Wednesday's 2272.50 high are (1) it stopped pessimistically short of touching Tuesday's 2273.00 high, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective, and (2) the high formed a Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern which often reverses more substantially from a false break. Wednesday's high is already far above, and that's just as of Wednesday's close. Bouncing off of oversold RSIs at 2243.00 recovered to 2260.00 but fell back to 2245.00 before the close. A fresh low overnight would neutralize the attraction to retest 2243.00 -- already recovering it into Thursday's open would be a good start at retesting Wednesday's high. Otherwise, that multi-session pullback targeting 2215.00 and 2205.00 is underway. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2261.75 2256.75 ...would target  2268.75  2264.00 Bias-down: under  2251.50  2246.75 ...would target 2245.75  2240.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.