Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 03-24-2015

Through the prior close...
Surging 6-7 points into and out of Monday''s open quickly fulfilled its likely objective to retest Friday''s 2106.75 high. The balance of the choppy session ranged sideways, until a last-minute 6-7 point dive from 2101.00 extended through 2095.00 into and out of the close. The morning''s 2110.25 bias-up target became "unfinished business above.

Overnight action''s new info...
Narrow ranging around 2094.00-2096.00 didn''t reject Monday''s last-minute drop. Neither did it extend it. But a probe lower after Europe''s opens did snap back up sharply from testing 2092.00, all the way up to 2101.00.

If, then...
Gapping up above yesterday afternoon''s 2106.00 high would form a "session-long rally" setup. That''s the only path for resuming the rally without being likely to reverse back down this afternoon. Gapping up is not currently indicated, but just opening back above the 2101.00 inflection point of yesterday''s late dive could still probe back above yesterday''s highs intraday. Retesting the overnight lows isn''t otherwise necessary, but they would be unlikely to hold, and more likely to back-and-fill on the way down to retest Thursday afternoon''s "lower prior highs" at 2083.50.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning''s 2102.00 bias-up signal at 10:15, and likelier at least to test the 2092.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2104.50 would be likely to trigger the 2102.00 bias-up.

Fresh lows hold the bias-down signal''s support.

The pre-open drop from 2101.00 extended down through the open to 2090.50. That''s under the 2091.75 overnight low. It''s also under the 2092.50 bias-down signal.

And it was reversed back up into positive territory. Through 10:15.

This a no-bias environment. And having held a test of the bias-down signal, and offsetting test of the 2102.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

Bouncing that high at this stage would likely probe into yesterday''s range up to 2103.75. And that''s so near yesterday''s high -- which was itself already a retest of Friday''s high -- that probing any higher would put into play fresh highs.

Like, yesterday''s unfinished business outstanding at 2010.25.

I continue viewing this range as more vulnerable to probing fresh highs than to reversing the trend down. Meanwhile, it''s pretty important that 2096.00 continue to hold as support, recovering from inappropriately-timed tests under it.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.75
2102.00
...would target 2116.25
2108.50
Bias-down: under 2101.75
2094.00
...would target 2096.50
2088.75
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gappingup above Monday''s 1.0965 highs tested 1.1040 before reversing back down into into Tuesday''s range to 1.0900. Closing above 1.0925 would be likely to retest Tuesday''s highs up to 1.1075. Under 1.0900 would suggest the upside momentum had lapsed, and under 1.0855 would reverse momentum down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Higher highs Tuesday morningup to 1194.50 continued to confirm the 1197.00 target remains in-play. And extending higher without any meaningful retracement also suggests the target''s test launch at least a corrective dip.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday''s high held a touch of Monday''s 17.00 high, which did not include any trending effort, suggesting a greater vulnerability to some sort of corrective dip of some sort.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
This leg''s minimum objective beginning at 164-26 was met Tuesday morning. Back under 164-00 would target 163-16 and probably also 162-00. Meanwhile, there is room above for noise up to 165-08. Closing above 165-14 would trigger a new upleg.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight up to 48.55 further suggested Monday''s bullish setup targeting 49.55 is valid. Its reaction down Tuesday held "lower prior highs" down to the 47.20 area. Further upside probably won''t tolerate dipping any deeper first.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight to test 2.77 resistance before Tuesday''s open was extended several pennies higher. The ongoing range can''t tolerate a fresh low at this point, which would be likelier to become a new downleg. And not yet extending Tuesday''s bounce Wednesday to close back above 2.84 would greet Thursday''s EIA report from a position of weakness -- or, at least, not from a position of strength.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2098.50
2091.00
...would target 2103.50
2096.00
Bias-down: under 2087.00
2079.50
...would target 2080.50
2073.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.