Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 04-06-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's session is the tale of two markets. There's the pre-open rally that greeted the open above Monday and Tuesday's ~2357.00 highs at 2363.50. The setup quickly produced an expected strong rally, which fulfilled the rare doubly-renewed bias-up target up to 2375.00. And then a 10-point dip that was recovered to within 1 tick of the morning's high. Then came the session's other market, a reaction to FOMC Minutes that plunged to 30 points. The low barely pierced unfinished business from Tuesday morning at 2344.75. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's cash session close had equated to 2348.25, which the Globex open's bounce quickly attacked. And then rejected, as the decline extended down to 2338.00. The low was well before midnight, and the balance of the session has been climbing gradually, now probing 2348.25 up to 2350.00 resistance. If, then... Despite already probing lower overnight, opening unchanged probably won't prevent another downdraft. Barely probing positive territory probably won't, either. Regardless, a post-open dip could end the downleg -- and start an upleg targeting new highs for the week -- if it avoids retesting 2344.75 deeper than 2-3 points. The objective was neutralized overnight, but retesting it intraday wouldn't be redundant. The downside risk is in breaking it, which would essentially target 2311.00. Any trending today is likely to be earlier rather than later, as anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report often paralyzes the prior afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2353.00 would be likely to trigger the 2351.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2349.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2348.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2344.75 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning it is Thursday instead of Thursday's Morning Market or that it is shaping up already shaved up to be awesome week great training opportunities also some pretty productive action we are surely not out of the woods here as far as I knew down like be getting but that is I don't want to stay far from being proved but it's not prove yesterday as I say today in the first grade blog post yesterday was a tale of two markets it started pretty optimistic Lee with the overnight rally that greeted the open above not only Tuesday but Mondays as the 2357 highs of course Monday mornings additional I was hired but the Roman has all recovered even that original hi just couldn't have taken it out much more cleanly than that and so we knew to expect a early and strong rally and that paid off very well i ee renewed by a sub Target its only 4:25 was pierced by 3 tix at the High good been just a shadow pull back but it was a little bit deeper and it hit ejective the objective 2365 6465 being the likely objective before recovering to within a tick of the high neither is over but are inside at the mornings High by the sake of a single tick a head of a news item that doesn't change that officially it's required to be retested but the official requirement to retest yesterday morning side doesn't change whether you have his decline can extend anyway as far as at the Glen goes let's just call it a point because that's really what it was plunge got started gradually and then snow balled all the way down to 4425 4475 was unfinished business below from Tuesday morning can really get out of the out of the orbit it seems of objective and still be attracted back to them so you came back to that and that just wasn't actually yesterday's Cash Mission close equates to 4825 but that's just not likely to stop and it didn't stop and overnighted has Pro blower did Pro blower hid Pro blower and this is where the risk comes in because we did have another piece of Unfinished Business below that was tested Tuesday at 4225 that was the prior Tuesday's Novi is trending above its biceps I can I buy something for 225 required be tested it was were tested there is no bullets reason to revisit 4225 sort of there's no bullets reason to revisit 4225 intraday during the relevant time in Wood Dale eggs at that time window under 4225 just no bullets reason for that it's already been done if it's done again it's because probably very probably because the market is rolling over that's where we would know and at this point the earliest we would know that what is in a bigger picture since I'm not going to do the bigger picture right now we just went out in a bigger picture since we've got lower high flow if that's a lower high yesterday that produces a fresh blow this is first well 2311 would be targeted but that would risk even more substantial damage to the downside so that's the downside of 23 44 175 2340 2:25 to 3:40 if that wants to be tested Post open a better be tested and rejected pretty aggressively to leave the door open to railing and by the way just so you know the big plunge from yesterday doesn't of course make it any easier to resume the rally but it doesn't make it much less likely make the degree that it is less likely to be recovered is because it's less often that something of that share momentum and productivity is actually recovered or recovered quickly that is but that doesn't make it impossible I should say to recover quickly in fact it's going to recover it all recovered quickly because this is telling us that the market is in a very pliable State of Mind the collective Market that'll have to be exploited pretty quickly as overnight is trying to be very elastic but this bounce into the open that doesn't make the open door this morning and he likelier to extend the light Clearpath higher he remember yesterday morning when I say the likeliest pass up is a meeting that there was no it's below that needed to be neutralized before that we knew to expect the strong morning Riley this morning the likeliest Up Is Down take care of some unfinished business unless we can get 5750 West Point news coming actually in Decatur 4475 maybe even 4225 get that done quickly react to it that's going to be the best slingshot and it's actually expect a 351 2351 Monday's Long Pond casinos back up to what it been the Rally's Target 1 5202 but that has not reversed that cop still gotta close up on 5202 to suggest that this is not a topping pattern which it otherwise is crude oil the Gap up we're talking about 24 hours ago and although it was an able sewing pressure it did leave at standing now Gap up the essays open that I want to be filled From Below I was a little fall through after yesterday's clothes but we're getting the open at least trying to resume the rally and then natural gas report today from a position of strength two consecutive closes that's not a break out and confirmation Brit is above all prize that's a negative reaction isn't possible but there's room down to 318 before even suggesting momentum is over some damn all right by the way if you haven't tried Friday afternoon and Saturday morning full time it looks like on Monday everything and make sure that you just not only are compatible with it but also that you're familiar with logging into it. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.]

Post-open low could qualify as a bottom. The overnight rally had extended pre-open to within 1 tick of 2353.00. Post-open action fulfilled expectations by reacting down from the pre-open rally. Twice. A 5-point dip through the open was recovered entirely to 2353.00, then reversed to a fresh low within 1 tick of the 2344.75 bias-down signal. Then recovered entirely again. Twice. First to a 2354.00 during a televised news conference. And now -- after invoking the 2351.00 bias-up signal's grace period -- to 2355.50. The 2357.50 bias-up target is in-play. The post-open probe under yesterday's intraday low makes a bottom credible, as was described at yesterday's close. Actually touching 2344.75 post-open was narrowly avoided, but it was as close as possible, and the overnight probe was much deeper. Nevertheless, extending and/or maintaining this afternoon would be more predictive. Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Report will make that difficult.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2362.25 2358.75 ...would target  2367.75  2364.50 Bias-down: under  2355.00  2351.75 ...would target 2349.75  2346.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up target met, holding. This morning's 2351.00 bias-up signal triggered late, but cleanly, probing the 2354.00 pre-10:15 high through 10:30. Its 2357.50 bias-up target was pierced by 1 tick as the bias environment began lapsing. That's step-one, both for a rally and for a new downleg. Recovering to 2357.50 rewards buyers that absorbed the post-open dip attacking 2344.75. Extending the recovery would suggest it is attracting new sponsorship. Meanwhile, the reward has satisfied near-term buying pressure, making price vulnerable to falling. Thursday afternoons are often paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday morning's Employment Situation report. Yesterday morning rallied bravely ahead of the afternoon's FOMC Minutes, and suffered the consequences. Memories may be the recovery's biggest challenge here, but the market will rally if it wants.

Thursday afternoon wasn't really paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. But its trending attempts got nowhere. The noon hour exit rallied through the morning's 2354.00 high up to 2361.25. That was reversed down under 2350.00, where the balance of the session consolidated back up to 2354.00. A wide range, but no net. The afternoon's 2364.50 bias-up target became "unfinished business above." It might stay that way for awhile. There was no bullish reason for Thursday afternoon's probe of fresh highs to be retraced back under 2350.50. The door is open to retesting Thursday morning's low down to 2344.75 or lower. Lower could be difficult to recover, but easier to roll over the ledge to much lower targets. Recovering above 2357.50 and extending higher without delay would avoid that ledge. Rallying sufficiently at Friday's open Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Try the new ADOBE platform while monitoring overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2361.00 2357.50 ...would target  2367.00  2363.75 Bias-down: under  2352.00  2348.75 ...would target 2346.75  2343.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.