Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 07-28-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday afternoon's recovery from the FOMC reaction rallied nearly 15 points to attack 2167.00. That's after initially plunging from 2160.00 to 2152.00.The selling may seem repudiated, but Wednesday's close dipped back down to 2160.00. Post-close action attacked 2158.00. Overnight action's new info... Oh, look. Another test of 2168.00-2169.00 has reacted down. Almost all of Wednesday's late dip was eventually retraced before Europe's opens. Surging soon after that probed fresh highs up to 2186.50. But, once again, that area has reacted down instead of extending higher. This time 2160.00 is being probed by almost 1 point. If, then... The relief rally to FOMC was among its briefest, and had elapsed entirely by yesterday's close. Left to its own devices, the rally is up to its old tricks. While proximity to the highs keeps alive potential up to 2171.25 up to 2175.50, Opening flat-to-down this morning would be likelier to attract selling than buying. Similarly, rejecting the overnight dip before the open would be more bullish for having trapped another downleg. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2158.00 would be likely to at least test this morning's 2153.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2161.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2167.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2169.25 would be likely to trigger the 2167.75 bias-up signal

Post-open chop is back in the quicksand. The 2159.00 open surged to touch 2161.50. Reacting back under 2159.00 signaled momentum reversing down. The reaction quickly extended to within 3 ticks of the 2153.25 bias-down signal. And bounced. Back above 2158.00 signaled momentum reversing up. A retest of 2161.50 up to 2162.75  Its 2161.50 pullback limit was violated, and back under 2159.50 signaled momentum reversing down, again. The initial 2154.00 low is being pierced. There's no assurance of the 2153.25 bias-down signal holding if broken after the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. But probing under it before then should not be durable. Back above 2156.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. But it had better be very productive very quickly if valid.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2166.75 2161.00 ...would target  2171.75  2166.25 Bias-down: under  2159.75  2154.25 ...would target  2153.75  2148.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still stuck at the lows. Dropping during the opening 15 minutes had probed well under 2158.00-2159.00. That area's quicksand is irrelevant if its probe is isolated to a relevant timing window. And it was -- reacting up sharply from 2154.00 to attack 2163.00. But it was tested again, entering the bias environment back under 2158.00. And there has been nothing quick about it. Attacking this morning's 2153.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick did produce a bounce back up to 2158.00-2159.00. But that reacted down. Now that reaction down is has recovered to probe above 2158.00-2159.00, which starts to suggest the quicksand is being left behind. It's too late to trigger bias-up, so exiting the bias environment in rally mode is the next bullish scenario.

Did Thursday recover from 2153.50 to 2167.50 in anticipation of favorable earnings surprises after the close from AMZN and GOOG? Or, was the recovery inhibited by the earnings timing? Probing 5 points above the morning's high still stopped 1 point short of the 2168.50 overnight high. Pessimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Greeting Friday's open at or above 2168.00-2169.00 wouldn't be a first. There are 4-5 prior instances in the past week. Extending above it would be a second. Sunday night did it. But still being in proximity of fresh highs at 2175.50 still makes its test the likelier resolution. Thursday's rally didn't gain traction, so extending higher Friday morning probably depends on gapping up. Assuming fresh highs are even probed (for a change), we'll be looking at the close for a new trend high, or not. It has special meaning on Fridays. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2174.50 2169.00 ...would target  2181.00  2175.50 Bias-down: under  2166.25  2160.75 ...would target 2161.00  2155.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.