Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday afternoon's headline collapse to 3319.50 was consolidated through midnight but never probed lower. Gapping up to 3353.50 rallied to higher and higher highs that gradually neutralized all unfinished business and attractions -- Monday night's 3379.00 high, Tuesday's 3368.00 gap up, Tuesday afternoon's 3381.00 bias-up target, the 3373.50 origin of Tuesday afternoon's headline collapse. The last breakout's timing during the Proxy Window was all but doomed to failure, and did reverse down through the close under Wednesday's high at 3368.00, still qualifying as a new high close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's late reaction down has deteriorated overnight. Only a little, but only deteriorated. Flat-to-lower ranging tested 3363.00 ahead of Europe's opens, which only inspired a brief bounce while the range has remained intact. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Two reasons to be aware there is no unfinished business above. First and obviously, this warns that all prior buying pressure is satisfied. Second and counter-intuitively, this also motivates the ongoing trend to create replacements -- new Globex trend extreme, gap open above all prior highs, breakout from a multi-session range, overbought RSIs, trigger bias-up. None of these is developing since yesterday's close, which is unusual for this rally. The void must be filled with something, and the only other self-preservation tactic is to retrace back down to levels that can attract stronger-handed sponsorship. That might not be an option for this particular stage of the rally, with no likely support remaining at Tuesday's low. Perhaps the overnight hesitation is just anxious defensive posturing ahead of this morning's Jobless Claims. But a blip-up wouldn't be surprising for even the most bearish scenario (I discuss the too-late-to-break setup in this morning's Market Tour). The question is whether a bounce can be high enough for long enough to trigger bias-up, and to close higher, two other voids that sellers could fill. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3366.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3363.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3374.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3379.00 bias-up signal.

Trying to avoid its downside target. The overnight attack on and test of the 3363.00 bias-down signal may have been only defensive posturing ahead of this morning's Jobless Claims report. Its knee-jerk reaction popped up to 3373.00 and back down for the open to attack 3363.00 again. Its post-open reaction bounced even higher to test the 3379.00 bias-up signal. Which held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 3363.00 bias-down signal is in-play. The first reaction down bounced from 3372.00 back up to the 3379.00 bias-up signal. Its resistance should define the window's upper-end. Probing it could retest yesterday's late 3382.00 high. Whether a delay or detour, its minimum required resolution is to retest overnight lows. Nothing requires probing any lower, but probing any lower would have only one lower line of support before starting to signal a much deeper downleg underway.

  THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3385.25 3379.75 ...would target 3393.50 3388.00 Bias-down: under 3373.75 3368.25 ...would target 3365.75 3360.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE  

Last gasps? Holding a test of this morning's bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of its bias-down signal. But buyers weren't finished, spending the morning and the noon hour repeatedly testing both this morning's and afternoon's bias-up signals. No-bias has triggered again. This afternoon's failed test of its 3379.75 bias-up signal doesn't require an offsetting test of its 3368.25 bias-down signal. But it does require either bias signal to define that end of the range if tested. This morning's 3363.00 bias-down signal remains in-play nevertheless, regardless of when it is tested. A reaction down is now probing the morning bias environment range's lower-end down to 3370.00. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is barely threatened, so a trend reversal isn't near to being signaled. But breaking lower through the bias environment exit should at least start to reveal whether the rally can continue absorbing pullbacks. Recovering fresh session highs would suggest the rally remains intact.

Sellers didn't rush to exploit Wednesday having neutralized all remaining unfinished business, and their effort didn't succeed. Thursday's 3365.00 open was within the relatively narrow overnight range, and quickly recovered to attack Wednesday's highs. The noon hour exit blipped-up to 3382.00 within 1 tick of Wednesday's late blip-up, and reversed down even more sharply to 3357.50. The final hour ranged flat-to-higher up to 3372.50, still within Wednesday's range. Sellers may have gained traction for their effort. Exiting the bias environment under the noon hour low was still overlapping the bias environment low at the final hour entry. Trending down through Friday's open, or at least not trending up, would be likely to trend down through the morning. Thursday morning and noon hour consolidating at Wednesday's 3379.00 pivotal high has chipped away at its resistance. Resolving down suggests that was distribution, but its recovery would be credible for launching a new upleg. The rally is postured at its recovery highs. A new high close on a Friday would create new unfinished business, which the rally still desperately needs. Not exploiting its proximity, and closing lower, would further suggest a downleg is forming. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3377.00 signal would target 3388.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3360.25 signal would target 3351.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3382.50 3377.00 ...would target 3394.25 3388.75 Bias-down: under 3365.75 3360.25 ...would target 3357.00 3351.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.