Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 08-21-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday morning's opening drop probed under prior lows at 2419.50. Under all prior lows, including the prior Thursday night's 2430.50 overnight low. And stayed there, until the bias environment began lapsing.This created an anchor that helped doom to failure a rally into the noon hour's 2439.50 high. The WedEX's bearish influence helped, too. Regardless, the afternoon slid back down into the morning's range to test 2424.00 into the close. The morning's anchor was probed, but not broken. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open gapped up a couple of points and extended several more to 2431.50. Dipping back under 2428.25 signaled momentum reversing down, and soon it was all retraced to probe under 2424.00 again. And again, and again. The last probe slid into and out of Europe's opens, attacking Friday morning's 2419.50 low to within 1 tick. Its reaction got steep and touched last night's 2428.25 sell signal. That has been consolidating back down to Friday's 2424.50 cash session close as support. If, then... Retracing all of Friday morning's anchor during Friday's session could have held to establish a durable bottom. The delay reflects optimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Stopping optimistically short of touching Friday's low overnight, and already surging, also prevents a durable bottom from forming. But it does help to refuel sellers. Regardless of whether the opening print is a gap up from Friday's close, the bearish WedEX influence should help to push price lower through the morning. The WedEX's lapsing influence doesn't prevent the afternoon from trending down, too. Only having ranged overnight doesn't prevent post-open action from trending down sharply. And only recovering 2434.00 through a relevant window would start to suggest further downside can be delayed. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2434.00 would be likely to  trigger the 2430.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2423.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2421.25 bias-down signal Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Monday it's time for Monday's morning market tour awfully you've had an opportunity if you didn't attend the Saturday review to actually watch the Saturday review recording the first oh and 20-25 minutes is often enough to get the gist of what the markets are trying to say what its challenges are and what its intent is then also what the different strategies are for Sunday night Monday last night was interesting because remember and it is the big focal point is that the big focal point of the I'm going to climb this time trying to actually reverse the trend down that Friday morning actually broke under all prior lives not just continued trending down but broke under the prior Thursday's Lowe's which is been the lows for the brake lower for the first leg down spent that way which by the way that's not that big a deal that can cut either way that can be absorbed and reverse backup or extend down or but timing is what I told us will if the open were greeted already in Decline selling off and not waiting until the last 60 90 minutes before the open to start doing so or resume doing so but just bottom line is the overnight dip stopping short of launching new Lowe's the reaction up that's back into positive territory none of that in fact all the way back up to the cell signal at 24 2825 that I identified initially overnight none of that is necessarily bullish it's the Post open Action that will be bullish or bearish and various wed x Wednesday expression influence that was confirmed on Friday afternoon suggests that whatever the open gapping up flat down Post open Action through the morning will trim down and the overnight slope however shall we might consider that doesn't prevent a steeper slope in the morning so what might change our mind on that and that is a couple things well at 10:15 of course the bias up signal 2430 if it triggers even then 2430 is bias up signal won't prevent or won't be sufficient on its own it'll be helpful but it won't be sufficient on its own to prevent turning down temporarily for the morning that's unusual but it happens really through the open it be open if pre-open action word to extend if pre-open action were to get the open and then the opening 15 minutes through 2434 2434 then we would start to suspect sellers aren't going to take control this morning or be assured of this morning that wouldn't prevent them being assertive in the afternoon and by the way being assertive in the morning wouldn't prevent them still being assertive in the afternoon but if the open can recover 2434 or if it 1015 the bias up signal 2430 where the trigger those would suggest or start to suggest this morning and bear is wed x might not be an issue alright let's look at other markets any questions that post it to the trim or that same day so its not that its I can't be retested it's just not an attraction there are higher Prairie lose up around 1300 if close about 1300 we can really 1301 and we can start to our 1302 and we can start to suspect that perhaps this leg is extending but otherwise it's at risk of topping Long Pond doing well with or at least firm with vs under pressure crude oil which had extended down up at cell signal 4825 came back to test its cell signal clothing back about 4875 would suggest the downside is done or at least in the near-term that's some big are corrective bounces underway like a probe of prioritize about 50-50 10 otherwise signaling down and there's.

Still fighting the drop. Attacking Friday's 2419.50 low overnight to within 1 tick was retraced to Sunday night's 2418.25 sell signal. Stopping short of touching the low, and then retracing all of a downleg. Perhaps that optimism can be dismissed due to US markets not yet having opened. But even that has found buyers stepping up, despite soon being taken out. The open was greeted unchanged from Friday's 2424.50 cash session close. The opening 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated 2 points either way around it. That was just long enough to reflect optimism without also forming an anchor.

Resolving down probed a fresh low under 2416.00. The 2421.25 bias-down signal triggered, and its 2414.25 bias-down target is in-play. None of which has prevented a 4-1/2 point bounce up to 2420.50. More of the same ineffectual optimism that has been refueling the decline?

The open's congestion could attract price back up for a retest before resuming the decline. Exiting the bias environment back above its 2421.25 bias-down signal could retest Friday morning's 2439.50 high. But resuming the decline would next target 2411.75 and then potentially under 2400.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2430.00 2429.00 ...would target  2435.50  2434.50 Bias-down: under  2421.00  2420.00 ...would target 2415.25 2414.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour prints fresh post-open highs. WedEX's bearish influence was essentially limited to probing a new trend low, and to the morning's range being exclusively negative territory. But the bias environment itself was a rally that attacked the open's 2428.25 high. Regardless, its influence is done. Potential for being attracted back up to the opening range was fulfilled by a 10-point bounce off the 2415.75 low. The 2414.25 bias-down target became "unfinished business below." Bouncing higher into the noon hour tested this afternoon's 2429.00 bias-up signal by 2 ticks. But the noon hour exit had dipped to 2525.25. This afternoon's no-bias environment need not resolve either way today, and it will be vulnerable to resolving either way. Back above 2429.00 would have potential for retesting Friday morning's 2439.50 high. Otherwise, probing back under Friday's 2424.50 cash session close and resuming the decline could extend into Wednesday morning.

Monday's opening probe under Friday's low and the overnight low down to 2415.75 was relatively brief. And it was largely retraced up to 2429.50. But it was not rejected, since no relevant level was recovered through any relevant timing window. A late-afternoon attempt to resume the decline under 2422.75 was retraced by a later-afternoon bounce testing 2428.25. Both levels held, preventing any hold-long or hold-short consideration. So, the decline could continue without further delay. Or it could be retraced a little further to retest Friday morning's 2439.50 high. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2431.00 2430.00 ...would target 2437.25  2436.50 Bias-down: under 2424.75  2423.50 ...would target 2417.75  2416.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.