Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 12-01-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Testing Wednesday morning's 2213.25 bias-up target pre-open and to within 1 tick post-open held up long enough to form an anchor. But price resolved down, anyway, rejecting the 2207.75 bias-up signal. That put into play a test of 2199.75, which the afternoon bias environment fulfilled it. RSIs diverged positively on its retest to help launch a bounce. But it had gotten late, and counter-trend sponsorship didn't stop another drop to fresh lows at 2197.50.  It was the third consecutive session ending in decline. Overnight action's new info... A relatively shallow bounce attacked 2202.00 before reversing to fresh lows at 2194.25. Reacting up to attack 2199.00 before Europe's opens has only maintained that range throughout. Now its lower-end is being attacked again as US traders start arriving into the arena. If, then... Wednesday was the third consecutive session ending on the brink of rolling over. Thursday may be the first session not to fight back. Neither of the two setups for rejecting the late dip is possible if the open were to gap down, as is indicated currently. And not rejecting Wednesday's late break will likely trend down Thursday morning. Wednesday morning's anchor still suggests this reaction down will be recovered. But simply attacking last week's 2192.00 support at this stage should ultimately probe it down to 2187.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2196.25 would be likely to trigger the 2197.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2201.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Choppy open still gains downside traction. The pre-open bounce up to 2203.00 held its late resistance from yesterday afternoon. Post-open action immediately slid to test the 2197.50 bias-down signal, then bounced again. Another drop came to within 1 tick of the 2194.25 overnight low, then bounced again. One more bounce managed to invoke the grace period, which resolved down. Ultimately, this is a bias-down environment. Testing the 2192.00 bias-down target is likely also to visit 2187.50. At this stage, nothing yet requires anything deeper, let alone durable. Indeed, the bias-down signal missed opportunities to be optimal -- triggering late, then not already breaking to fresh lows through the 10:30 grace period. Even now, RSIs are avoiding oversold territory despite finally retesting the overnight low.. Trending down is being fought by limiting dips to only short spurts, which tends to resolve in a sudden, steep and substantial push down. That leg may be starting now as 2192.00 is being attacked to within 2 ticks.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2203.25 2202.25 ...would target  2208.50  2207.75 Bias-down: under  2193.75  2193.00 ...would target 2188.50  2187.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Test of last week's lows could end here, but need not. This morning's 2192.00 bias-down target was met to within 3 ticks, which excluded it from becoming "unfinished business below." But no bounce ever gained traction to reverse momentum back up. And, anyway, retesting 2192.00 was always likely to also visit 2187.50 before any meaningful bounce. So, trending down throughout the noon hour has extended to touch 2187.50. That's also this afternoon's bias-down target, and it held through 1:20, so the bias-down signal was not renewed. This is still a bias-down environment, and extending down anyway would next target "lower prior highs" at 2181.00.

 Still, the only bullish scenario from here would recover this afternoon's 2193.00 bias-down signal when the bias environment starts lapsing at 2:30. Recovering 2194.75 during the bias environment would get a benefit of the doubt for already reversing momentum up, albeit not in an optimal way.

A terrifying characteristic was finally included, which this pattern's template suggested should be part of the drop before it can end. And nothing has made this dip any less likely to recover. Recall that yesterday's late drop extended down only after the position-squaring window had isolated a fresh low under 2199.75. Now this morning's bias environment has also isolated its probe under the open's 2194.50 low.

None of which prevents dips to lower lows. But their origins suggest that this stage of the dips is not strong-handed enough to prevent retesting yesterday's highs. And probably also probe higher to fulfill the 2220.00 objective created by last week's recovery above 2192.00.

Meeting the 2187.50 target put an end to the day's decline. The afternoon bias environment only ranged sideways back up to 2192.00. A probe of fresh lows down to 2186.00 was isolated to the final hour. That's similar to Wednesday's proxy window dip, and to Thursday morning's bias environment probe. None of which reverses momentum up, but does suggest the decline's sponsorship is weak-handed and temporary. Extending down any deeper would next target "lower prior highs" at 2181.00. There is no pre-qualified setup for reversing momentum up Friday, but any recovery should begin by gapping up. And not by a little. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2197.75 2197.00 ...would target  2203.75  2203.00 Bias-down: under  2188.25  2187.50 ...would target 2181.75  2181.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.