Day Trading Trading Signals - 05-02-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday afternoon's slide had extended down overnight to greet Friday's open gapping down at 2063.00. The morning's bias environment fell to 2046.00, which the afternoon's bias environment retested. Their 2057.00 interim bounce was recovered during the last half-hour's rally back to 2063.00. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's weaker Globex open continued ranging flat-to-lower down to 2055.50, back up to 2059.00. Firming into Europe's opens attacked 2063.00, but only momentarily before reversing aggressively back down to 2057.00. It was recovered almost as aggressively, and now fresh highs are touching 2065.50. That is this morning's bias-up signal, i.e. resistance. If, then... Friday afternoon's range isn't likely to withstand a retest as support. It represented a retest of early-April's consolidation that had launched the last rally leg. And its retest was recovered to close above the consolidation. So, either Monday's open is already rallying -- gapping up and extending -- or else the decline is resuming. Overnight action hasn't been overly-optimistic, but neither has it yet indicated a sizable gap up that would be likely also to extend. Regardless, not indicating a gap down should be bullish, as this stage of the pattern is much less likely to maintain Friday's range. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.25 would be likely to trigger the 2065.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Sub-optimal gap up surfaces at fresh highs. Gapping up above prior highs -- and maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility -- was critical to preventing sellers from regaining control. Gapping up to the 2065.25 bias-up signal reacted down 4 points, and recovered in time to maintain the gap up. But it wasn't optimal. A 30-minute range between 2059.50-2064.00 had to resolve up. It was, but only to overlap 2065.25 in time to invoke the grace period. After extending to 2068.75, bias-up triggered, but late.

All of which kept alive room for another detour on the way to this morning's 2073.00 bias-up target. That pattern allows room to briefly test 2065.50 as support. It was just tested. And it resolved up.

That recovery didn't prevent a knee-jerk reaction down that attacked 2062.00. A knee-jerk reaction to what, I don't know. Back above 2066.00 would indicate it was a knee-jerk reaction anyway. Otherwise, the sub-optimal gap up will have dived deeply before the bias environment lapses.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2074.25 2068.00 ...would target 2080.25 2073.00 Bias-down: under 2067.25 2061.00 ...would target 2061.50 2055.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

So many sizable swings in a singular pattern. This morning's late bias-up signal eventually produced a fresh high after 10:30. This makes its 2073.00 target very difficult to avoid testing. Meanwhile, the swings within this morning's range were not impressive for their size so much as their frequency. So many sizable swings without breaking the range is very unusual. There is no shortage of opinion, and it is widely varied.

Perhaps if the swings weren't responding to the singular pattern's calculable inflection points. Then, the ongoing indecision could be dismissed as a market trying to establish a resolution. But gapping up from Friday's range had done that already, along with triggering bias-up.

Regardless, this afternoon's 2068.00 bias-up signal is now triggering. Firming into the noon hour's exit has surged to test 2071.25. Finally exploiting the setup doesn't improve its productivity. So extending the recovery depends on exceeding 2073.00 through a relevant window.

Monday afternoon was so predictable. It was so predictable, because Monday morning was not. Actually, Monday morning's wide swings responded to calculable inflection points. But those tests never sustained a breakout in either direction. So, Monday afternoon succeeded where the morning had failed. After struggling all morning to break free from its range, price action glided higher through the afternoon -- almost effortlessly. But did the afternoon rally gain traction for its effort? The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour's high. But the final hour's entry and the 3:10-3:20 timing window only maintained. That's enough for the burden of proof to be on sellers, but not enough to require higher highs. Higher highs would target the 2080.25 area, and probably lead to retesting two-week old highs. Being so much potential upside, any bearish scenario is likely to be aggressive. So, shallow weakness is likely to resolve up. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2084.00 2078.00 ...would target  2089.75  2083.75 Bias-down: under  2075.75  2069.75 ...would target 2070.50  2064.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.