Day Trading Trading Signals - 06-15-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday morning's gap up was hard fought, having recovered 8 points overnight to attack the 2443.50 high. But the gap up was then quickly abandoned on the way to fulfilling an offsetting test of its 2433.00 bias-down signal. Greeting the afternoon's FOMC events from a consolidation in negative territory wasn't able to restart the recent upside momentum, and soon the morning's drop had resumed. New downside targets at 2427.25 were probed momentarily by almost 2 points. Selling pressure was fulfilled, the gap back down to Monday's closed was filled, and RSIs were diverging positively. The bounce it signaled then recovered up to 2437.50, which had been the pre-FOMC consolidation's resistance. That wasn't enough to prevent triggering bearish WedEX. Overnight action's new info... The late 12-point bounce did not justify a hold-long through Wednesday's close. If anything, the low's oversold condition had been neutralized so quickly, and by weak hands, that retracing it was likelier. Globex wasted little time at least attacking the afternoon low down to 2427.25. Breaking through it into and out of Europe's opens has extended lower since then, testing 2416.50. If, then... Recall that Monday's choppy, narrowing range had nevertheless reflected anxiousness. Its first breakout was likely to be false, and reverse more substantially in the opposite direction. The first opportunity for the false break's peak was touched that night at 2433.50. After extending 10 points higher, Monday's lows are now being attacked. And "unfinished business below" it had left outstanding at 2415.50 is likely to be met. Retesting oversold RSIs at Friday's 2412.50 low is also possible. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2421.50 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by failing to recover the 2426.50 bias-down target by 10:15. Phonetic dictation... Alright good morning welcome sir we're getting a little bit of a late start here nope that's not true lot of a late start here ran into a little snafu but I think it's corrected so will see you in a minute they basically we had towards the mortgage Market ran into a little snafu as well one thing to point out right away with the overnight drop the overnight drop has returned to Monday's range actually through Monday's range barely I'm in the 1650 low has pierced the overnight low buy a couple of ticks them Monday mornings objective actually was to test 1550 that was left outstanding and we've come with an appoint it's not neutralize it's still out there and oversold re-sized at Friday's low 1250 there in or inside at least another relevant level to keep in mind today or at least this morning is 2418 so what about yesterday yesterday's late bounce remember my final comments on that it wasn't compelling for a hold long because if anything the market had just taken this oversold condition and neutralized it and neutralized it so quickly and so late two important factors so quickly and so late had so much ben retraced not a arbitrary amount but 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} then some not back above a prior hi just back of a prior to Lowe's I'm so late not a timing window that attracts the strongest hands just that it wasn't compelling to hold long if anything it just by retracing so quickly and so late set it up for tracing the bounce that's an understatement because the retraced bounce for stopping optimistically short of a tracing an entirely and then hovering sideways I've got it out line more on the 3-minute try to put you can see the descending triangle and we coming to Europe's opens indecline sliding and sliding and sliding to within a point of 1550 what is this mean here is Friday's I'm sorry yesterday is this is Wednesday's bounce that's the new session low that's in the afternoon it is later than the bias environment will history of the final hour but last minute action was trended up quite a bit and the open is gapping under the afternoons Lazlo that low was a little too late a lot too late actually to qualify as my class session long to climb in Decatur I'm willing to overlook that and historically it does bear some overlooking because it's rejecting such a substantial bounce the thing is that because of the ridge inated from so late that's weak handed buyers the markets not really sticking it to strong handed buyers that's what we would be looking for a session on decline over but it is basically rejecting the week ended buyers and that's what led to the overnight slide so because of that because he's a week handed buyers that are being rejected not strong handed number Ridge inated too late it's not that big a deal to trim down overnight no matter how deeply so there's potential for the open to Just Bounce remember one other point about Monday session and actually remember one of the was that last hour and what is break would likely be false and reversed and potentially reversible substantially in the opposite direction let's at least been false as of yesterday's low it filled the Gap back to Monday's close and now has of the overnight it's tested the over to be low of Monday's range it doesn't have to reverse substantially in the opposite direction it does though need to be a false break out and that's already been accomplished so there is a opportunity here for the opened and neutralize the attractions below 1550 12:50 probably there's a pattern that they're targeting 11:50 that would be helpful do that without taking RS eyes over so we could get a bottom and just rally out of the open or out of the opening 15 minutes about to tear out of the bias timing window but if we're not already rallying out of any one of those windows out of the opening 15 minutes or 1015 by assigning window than the alternative could be substantially lower this is where we part ways with the upside remember the Dow index SPX alignment has been indicating that speculative forever is Ben's quickly leaving this Market hey big money is defensively postured so if we get under these lower priority been tested I mean really not looking at a lot of support until we get down to 2399 or any of those windows are neutralizing downside of traction gold as basically triggering a reversal down if there's a second consecutive are closed today will give that every benefit of the doubt for extending higher but meanwhile that looks like a rogue leg crude oil someone simile having left outstanding unfinished business itself but extended down if that's not recovered rejected today then it's probably extending lower over time and it's not being rejected and then finally natural gas Fort reports Dia today .

And they're swimming at much lower depths. The overnight low had reached 2416.50, still 1 point short of neutralizing Monday's 2415.50 unfinished business below. Wider and wider swings through the 10:15 bias timing window tested 2424.00-2425.00 above, and ultimately returned to the overnight low. Ultimately may be a bit misleading when four swings have already measured 5, 6, 7 and 8 points. Even returning to the overnight low has reacted up already by almost 4 points. Back above 2427.75 through a relevant timing window would suggest a bottom is being formed, or that momentum is already reversing up. Otherwise, oversold RSIs at Friday's 2412.50 low require a retest, too. But it's not likely support. Breaking more than 1 point under 2415.50 would more likely extend down to 2409.25 and 2407.00. There's room to 2399.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2430.00 2427.50 ...would target  2435.25  2433.00 Bias-down: under  2423.00 2420.75 ...would target 2417.00  2414.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's new low recovers to yesterday's low. The open's wider and wider ranging eventually included a retest of the 2416.50 overnight low. It was pierced by a single tick. Which was just enough to satisfy the pattern's structural requirement for a new low. Rallying 12 points from there to 2428.25 and higher doesn't change whether other attractions below remains outstanding. This morning's selling stopped optimistically short of fulfilling the first of it at 2415.50. Testing it this morning was already jeopardized by recovering 2421.50. Back under 2424.00 would already start signaling fresh lows are back in-play. Meanwhile, the recovery could extend up to 2433.00. The longer that takes to develop -- without breaking back under 2424.00 and 2421.50 -- would leave less time to resolve down today. And that would open the door to bouncing further before tomorrow afternoon's bearish WedEX becomes influential.

Wednesday night's decline was substantial, and it tested relevant attractions below. But nothing that required being neutralized. An attraction that required being neutralized was only attacked to within 3 ticks at the 2416.25 low. That takes care of that, for the rest of the day and a 16-point rally to attack 2433.00. But a lot of impatient buying is reflected in not fully testing the objective, while also piercing the overnight low by only 1 tick -- while leaving outstanding a retest of last Friday's oversold RSIs at 2412.50. Friday afternoon's bearish WedEX could become influential after the morning extends Thursday's recovery. Or Friday morning could already have resumed the decline, before resolving down further. Being a Friday, the morning's bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. And attacking this week's lows intraday would be likely to break lower. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2435.25 2433.00 ...would target  2440.75  2438.50 Bias-down: under  2427.50  2425.25 ...would target  2421.00  2418.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.