Day Trading Trading Signals - 06-23-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday was the "dry cleaners" day that wasn't. Opening checkpoints had indicated a lack of sponsorship, but that didn't prevent a mid-morning surge to the 2437.50 bias-up signal. That wasn't likely to extend since the prior day's buyers had not gained traction. In fact, the surge was retraced during Thursday's final hour back down to 2430.50.. Overnight action's new info... Immediately firming at the Globex open extended gradually overnight. Gradually and relentlessly, until testing 2436.00 That was yesterday afternoon's sell signal that had triggered finally as the last half-hour's position-squaring window opened. It wasn't any friendlier overnight. Reacting down from a touch of this morning's 2436.75 bias-up signal plunged back to yesterday's 2430.00 opening low, retracing the entire overnight rally. If, then... Trending Thursday beyond the range was likely to be down, not up. Thursday morning's surge was not trending, as it was contained within the no-bias range. Eventually plunging back to its origin helps to confirm it attracted no new sponsorship. Last night's rejected rally suggests the same, but won't qualify as confirmation until actually extending yesterday's late plunge. So, as with yesterday's parameters, the likelier vulnerability is down, unless Friday's open were to gap up above Thursday afternoon's 2438.50 high. The next lower significant objective below is the 2415.00. Rallying this morning, anyway, could retest yesterday's high up to 2441.75. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2431.25 would be unlikely to trigger this morning's 2428.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2425.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2433.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2436.75 bias-up signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it's Friday it's time for Friday's morning market tour and just to refresh Where We Are how it got here a little bit of a rally Monday Sunday night rally gapped up extended through all prioritize through the open basically gave us that directional queue for the day it never got never attracted any new sponsorship any reinforcements and immediately began retracing now they were Trey Smith has neutralized downside of jective but neutralizing those that are attractions in is a neutralizing those downside attractions hasn't resulted in bottom hasn't been indicated that all the ballast is dumped and and the balloon can rise again The Gap back to last Wednesday's close filled too late too late to represent strong hands and too late to retract strong handed buying pressure counter-trend pressure extended down Gap back to last Friday's close plenty of opportunity there ultimately has has not also has not indicated that strong-headed buyers have arrived even though in this case there's been plenty of time for it so someone simile and some differently from waiting too long to test or fill a gap there's been so much time here filling this is on Wednesday filling the prior last Friday's Gap so much time without attracting the sponsorship we just have a greater degree of confidence that we're going to probe under Wednesday's low notwithstanding or despite I should say with Thursday did yesterday the first hour ranging nearly the vulnerability to the downside the opening hour of the first hours three of the first hour is 515 minutes snap shots being stagnant indicating basically a dry cleaners morning although we did Serge to the bias up signal to the upper end of the mornings range pretty new to the ranges extreme and then rejecting that the vulnerability again being to the downside so now now with the vulnerability to the downside still what has happened anyway well overnight despite retracing the entirety of yesterday morning's surge can see all the way on the left here and they were tracing it all the way back pretty much down to almost down to yesterday's opening low but certainly back into the range to significant levels Relentless one-way overnight trending through Europe's opens extending hire no real the real volatility to it just pretty reliable suddenly plunges there's some signals being sent Central Bank signals tapering signals markets not handling it well but why should it it's vulnerable to the downside and in fact the origin of that seemingly Relentless one way over night rally already retraced back to and through its origin its origin being yesterday's late plunges low back to 2430 touching yesterday's Post open low again look all the way to the left of the screen that sounds familiar because that's kind of what happened I have yesterday's open this is Tuesday's there was an opportunity and that didn't work out and now not only did that attempt you say morning not work out and overnight attempt hasn't worked out to be really difficult to attract buyers this morning and this being a Friday with now no real window of liquidity the window look what it is is today and every minute represents an even greater more substantial share of the remaining time in the day this is not a day for generally taking on new positions or counter-trend positions and we couldn't find it couldn't find buyers efficient to launch a rally in the last couple days of testing this level probably needs to dig deeper and that's probably what it's going to do so the risk is to the downside the burden of proof is on buyers they were in position they had expended a lot of energy to get him position not having gain any traction yesterday gapping up today above us as high as would have indicated new sponsorship arrived not gapping up today means new sponsorship is not finding this level attractive having if we trended all the way up to you say Hi and then collapsed that would even be more Barrett's but just to retraced at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the essays drop really getting even closer testing what in Beignets late cell signal under 36 testing and retesting it touching what is this morning's bias up signal 3675 was touched while three minute are inside of Virgin negatively only 3 minutes I that plenty of time Wednesday basically 12730 giving it another shot of much better shot today Looney maybe this is the day we're produces that long-awaited new I close no requirement for to be today but with Friday and a lot of topping action in their failing good opportunity gold and silver both rallying rallying basically through yesterday's high and wow the patterns as expected did Peak before the open they didn't reverse down they didn't reverse down silver up to 16 basically 1675 now and if it's going to resume the rally today needs to break back under 1670 and where's more significantly back under 1665 still The Barrage path give up the opening Gap same thing on gold gold also rolling through yesterday's highs testing 12 59 at Pryor High Pryor High off for obligatory resistance there's gaps outstanding below so similar setup on gold has two silver which we didn't really work out yesterday that didn't succeed not in full we were tracing yesterday's gappa which leaves a lot more on the table to be fully retraced today into the weekend both of those scenarios are the likely scenario and even if they were overwhelmingly the likelier scenario which they actually are it actually is the overwhelmingly likely that is too but for the day any clothes above 295 at this point seals a bottom basicallyany questions let me know I will see you in the chart room before the open good luck today don't forget we've got a Saturday review tomorrow no Saturday review next weekend because of the holiday I'll remind you again later take care .

Return to the low holds again. The overnight test of this morning's 2436.25 bias-up signal had reacted down. More like plunged, retracing the entire overnight rally and touching yesterday's 2430.00 opening low. There was still time for another bounce to retrace the plunge's breakout back to its 2435.00 origin. That rally also broke lower, into and out of the 2433.00 open. Fresh lows tested this morning's 2428.50 bias-down signal.

That was just the opening 15 minutes of volatility. So, trending to fresh lows created an anchor, which should be retested if the opening trend were not extended immediately.

And the opening trend was not extended immediately.

That delay allowed the bias-down signal to avoid triggering. And having tested it -- regardless of already having held a test of the bias-up signal overnight -- an offsetting test of the 2436.25 bias-up signal was put into play. It is already fulfilled, up to 2437.50. Back under 2433.00 would target a retest of overnight lows, if not also to resume the decline. Resuming the decline would have been much more reliable if triggered much earlier. Sellers aren't marginalized, but they're hobbled. Soon the bias environment will begin lapsing, and fresh highs up to 2441.75 would be possible.  

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2441.50 2439.00 ...would target  2447.25  2445.00 Bias-down: under  2435.25 2433.00 ...would target  2429.75  2427.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at bias environment extreme. This morning's no-bias signal had held a test of the 2428.50 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2436.25 bias-up signal. Which was fulfilled. Its test was likely to include 2437.50. Overbought RSIs there required a retest. that inhibited selling, which barely dipped 2 points.Fresh highs during the noon hour neutralized the overbought RSIs without creating another one. Now we're in another no-bias environment. This afternoon's 2439.00 bias-up signal is being attacked to within 1 tick. If tested, it should define the bias environment's upper-end. Hovering here into its exit could start ticking higher, and then rally into the close. Otherwise, there's still room down to the 2433.00 bias-down signal, all keeping within the no-bias environment. Not dipping soon would be less likely to break lower later -- not altogether unlikely, sellers aren't marginalized, but less likely.

Chipping away further at the 2430.50 back down to last Friday's close remained vulnerable to breaking lower. But perhaps this Friday's opening probe under it developed too quickly to attract sponsorship. Amazingly, an 11-point rally up to 2439.00 attracted more sellers than did the open's 5-point dip. The afternoon bias environment exit was already slipping, and then it stumbled down to 2431.00. Despite stopping optimistically short, that still qualifies as another test last Friday's 2430.50 close. 2430.50 has been so thoroughly tested as support that at least some obligatory probe under it is likely, if not a new downleg to the 2415.00 area. Rallying prior to that would seem very suspicious. Especially a rally that doesn't start by gapping up above Friday afternoon's 2438.75 highs, since Friday's buyers gained no traction. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

I'll send the Saturday Review link in the morning, well before its 9:30 ET start time.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2440.25 2438.00 ...would target  2445.75  2443.50 Bias-down: under  2434.00 2431.75 ...would target 2428.75  2426.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.