Day Trading Trading Signals - 07-19-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's post-close Turkey plunger had been rejected at Sunday night's open. Fresh highs overnight up to 2163.25 were retraced to greet Monday's open back at Friday's 2154.25 cash session close. A quick dip to 2153.00 was recovered enough only to attack Sunday night's highs. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2163.75.. Overnight action's new info... Very narrow ranging around Monday's 2160.00 close finally resolved, down. The first leg attacked 2155.00 before bouncing 3 points coming into Europe's opens. The next leg attacked 2151.00 coming out of Europe's opens. Now a bounce is testing 2155.00 as resistance, back at Friday's close and Monday's open. If, then... The only nearby attraction is yesterday's "unfinished business above" at 2163.75 and then last week's.2168.00 "new Globex trend extreme which requires intraday retest. Its orbit includes "lower prior highs" in the 2148.00 handle. The rubber band need not test 2148.00 before being stretched enough for snapping back up this morning, unless already snapping back up through the open. That would risk triggering a downleg under 2146.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2154.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Open's dip creates another upside objective. Tuesday's open was essentially 2154.50, which was also Friday's close and Monday's open. Seems to be a relevant area. Surging up to 2158.00 didn't lessen its attraction, as a reaction down touched 2153.25.

Another bounce attacked 2158.00 in time to avoid triggering the 2154.00 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of the 2163.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

Despite the upside attraction, a rally isn't gaining traction. That might be because the 2153.25 low wasn't fully formed, so recovering will be difficult until at least touching 2153.00. Fresh highs above 2158.00 would be credible for leaving behind the 2153.25 lows. Otherwise, backing-and-filling this morning remains likely, regardless of the new objective created above.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2163.50 2157.50 ...would target  2169.75  2163.75 Bias-down: under  2158.00  2152.00 ...would target 2152.75  2146.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Can't get off the morning lows. The open's dip to 2153.25 could have avoided being probed had its reaction produced a break to fresh highs. Fresh highs were probed, but too shallowly and too briefly to reflect strong-handed sponsorship. A reaction down pierced 2153.25. Not that a bottom has finally formed. Still ranging choppily at session lows, that could extend down to 2152.00 or to the 2148.00 area. Today's session wasn't likely to produce serious selling, and it hasn't. Post-action ranging has been relatively choppy. Although a rally effort isn't required, exiting each timing window without yet recovering suggests just makes lower likelier.

Tuesday's horrible narrow choppy range did leave two influences. Both are functions of its ongoing intraday testing of support, neither recovering from it nor breaking lower. Holding the morning's 2154.00 bias-down signal created unfinished business above at its 2163.00 bias-up signal. That joins the prior morning's yet unmet 2163.75 bias-up target, and last week's 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme. Meanwhile, the testing of 2154.00 may have chipped away at its support. This will be relevant if Wednesday doesn't rally early. Breaking lower would target the 2148.00 area and potentially also 2146.00. The past four sessions have formed a multi-session range. A valid break in either direction should begin by gapping beyond the range. Leaving the range post-open would be likelier reverse back into the range. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2166.75 2160.75 ...would target  2171.75  2165.75 Bias-down: under  2158.50  2152.50 ...would target 2153.50  2147.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.