Day Trading Trading Signals - 09-23-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap up to 2167.50 still had room to test "higher prior lows" at 2172.50, which it did, and which it held. Its eventual reaction down attacked 2164.00 during the afternoon's bias-up environment. That bias-up influence enabled a complete recovery to retest 2172.50. But it didn't prevent another dip closing essentially unchanged from the opening print. That's a lot of intraday volatility, in a moderate range, to net no movement from the open. "Unfinished business above" was left outstanding at the afternoon's 2175.50 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... Can other bias-up influences rescue another drop? Narrow ranging around Thursday's 2167.50 open/close extended into Europe's opens. A blip-up to 2169.50 was reversed down more substantially to probe under Thursday's lows to 2163.25. Its recovery attempt is testing the initial overnight range's lower-end. If, then... Thursday afternoon's probe of fresh session lows developed during a bias-up environment. That context had all but assured it wouldn't extend, and in fact, its recovery probed back above its origin. Momentarily, which was long enough to validate the context. Having lapsed, the bias-up environment no longer offers context. But Thursday afternoon's bias-up target remains outstanding, and should ultimately prevent extending down. Leveraging this attraction above would help to recover the overnight probe under yesterday's lows -- whether before the open, or after gapping down. Since yesterday's ranging gained no traction for the overnight rally's effort, probing fresh highs today without gapping up would be very vulnerable to reversing back down sharply  Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning's bias tends to extend through the noon hour. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2163.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2161.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2159.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Gap down sticking to yesterday's lows. The last-minute attack on 2167.50 was already retraced to open back at yesterday afternoon's 2164.25 low. That soon gave way to attack this morning's 2161.25 bias-down signal to within 2-3 ticks. But it wasn't touched. Not touching  the bias-down signal means it can't actually  hold and be rejected. No offsetting test of the bias-up signal is required. No-bias did signal, so this is likely the morning range's lower-end. But there's no assurance it isn't also its upper-end. Back above 2164.75 would start to suggest a bounce is underway. No requirement to test the 2172.50 bias-up signal, except that it lies on the path to fulfilling yesterday's unfinished business above at 2175.50. End exiting the bias environment under its 2161.25 bias-down signal would more likely trend down.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2176.75 2169.25 ...would target  2183.00  2175.50 Bias-down: under  2168.75  2161.25 ...would target 2162.50  2155.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias environment lows have given way. Being at the bottom of this morning's range was a given as the bias environment was entered. Bouncing toward or to its upper-end was not a given, although there was room. Plenty of room, but zero assurance. And the bias environment only ranged narrowly at its lows. Now the lows have given way. Not that sellers are much more forceful. Dipping to 2159.75 just managed to touch this afternoon's 2161.25 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 1:30 to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-down, not no-bias, but noN-bias. No target or objective is in-play. Back above 2163.50 would start to signal a rally underway anyway. But where there is no likelihood for trending down, there is potential to gravitate down.

This weekend's Saturday Review has been cancelled, so Friday's post-market Wrap was extended to discuss the bigger picture and stock requests. Its recording is not the usual Saturday format, but the usual weekday format.. The week ended with one piece of "unfinished business above" at 2175.50. That's 3 points above Thursday's high. Being in the context of unfinished business above, Friday's slide is assumed to be a temporary detour. But that's the assumption anyway, since shallow trending or ranging on Fridays can be the week's least predictive price action. That's not to say nothing relevant was accomplished Friday. Its low filled the gap back down to Wednesday's close, and held it. Already trending up Sunday night to some degree, and gapping up Monday, is somewhat likelier at this stage -- assuming no dramatic weekend developments that would require being absorbed. Otherwise, any lower intraday Friday would have targeted at least 2149.00. That could still hold if tested Sunday night, but the delay makes any selling likelier to test "lower prior highs" down to 2143.50. And there's room below it to 2138.00 before suggesting that 2175.50 won't be tested soon.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order: GDXJ, ERII, POT, JJG, AERO, KSHB, CMG

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2171.75 2164.25 ...would target  2177.50  2170.25 Bias-down: under  2162.25  2155.00 ...would target 2156.50  2149.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET  EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.