Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The market took another beating on Thursday, and recovered almost entirely. Three overnight probes from under the 2925.25-2933.00 range to above it were each reversed again back under it -- deeper and deeper each time, including the post-open 34-point collapse to 2904.25. Even that was recovered almost entirely to within 1 tick of 2933.00, just in time for a final reaction down to 2920.00 through the close. The last drop's sponsorship was likely weak-handed, as has become the case with each reaction down being shallower, and recoveries becoming more frequent. Potentially chipping away at the zone's resistance. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) The Globex open briefly touched a fresh low under 2919.00 before finding its footing. By midnight, Thursday's late had been probed by 1 point to attack 2934.00. Higher highs attacked 2837.00. Europe's opens have since chilled the rally, which is being corrected now down to 2927.00 in reaction to a China trade war headline. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Not already exiting the open Friday back under the past three sessions' lows was likely instead to have rallied already overnight, and likely to extend higher post-open. It's too late for a drop to be credible for anything more than yet another temporary detour, although yet another temporary detour is unlikely. But we should always be prepared for Friday Factors to leverage small reactions into bigger moves. This leverage can cut either way, and already rallying through the open would likely extend higher intraday, perhaps aggressively. Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:00 ET, so making it through his headline minefield above at least 2933.00 should leave only upside for the balance of the session. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2935.50 would be likely to trigger the 2933.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2930.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Have sellers shot their load? REMINDER: We review last-minute tweaking and specifics in the chaRTroom 15 minutes before the open. That was especially relevant today, when the Market Tour was followed by China announcing a new round of tariffs. A pullback to 2927.00 had just recovered back up to the 2933.75 bias-up signal. Reaction to the headline quickly tested 2906.00, which was retested down to 2902.50. Testing yesterday's 2904.00-2906.00 post-open lows. My pre-open update in the chaRTroom noted that testing yesterday's lows is only noise. Recovering 2911.00 would be the first indication that momentum is reversing back up. Extending under 2903.00 through the open would have suggested otherwise. Buyers were still getting every benefit of the doubt, and the burden of proof remained on sellers. The open was choppy, and defined by 2903.00-2911.00. Only after triggering late bias-down is a rally getting underway. It is now testing the lower-end of 2925.25-2933.00. It's too late to reject both bias-down parameters and put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. But another Friday Factor may be taking precedence, that an early trending attempt defines the session. And the early attempt to trend down has failed. Rallying won't be doomed. The 2908.00 bias-down target won't become "unfinished business" when it has been tested already. Only a requirement to retest the 2917.50 bias-down signal for having probed above it during the bias-down environment.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2872.25 2872.25 ...would target 2880.50 2880.50 Bias-down: under 2862.25 2862.50 ...would target 2854.25 2854.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Waiting for the third shoe to drop. So, why do I usually have contrary signals at work simultaneously. Notice this morning's recovery attempt, which had just started testing 2925.25 as a buy signal. Rumors of Trump retaliating for this morning's China trade tariffs triggered a 53-point collapse to test 2973.00. Not coincidentally, this is also an example of why I always -- not usually, thanks to automatic brackets -- repeat: always have a stop in place. I had just finished noting that despite already having met the 2908.00 bias-down target, recovering above the 2917.50 bias-down signal during the bias-down environment would be difficult or altogether unlikely and unusual. And likely to be aggressive, of the sort that is triggered by a headline.

Also making the earlier recovery difficult was the Friday Factor that its morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. Which is when fresh lows got attacked 2863.00. Its reaction failed twice to trigger a 2877.00 buy signal, and the afternoon's late bias-down is triggering under 2862.50.

One Friday Factor that has been overcome is the one-and-done trending attempt. Essentially, Friday's first trending attempt is its last one. And the open's attempt to break lower had failed already. Probing under it later is likely to recover, but today's later probe doesn't seem interested in anything but down.

The next lower objective under 2896.00-2898.00 was 2877.00, and its next lower objective is 2854.00-2855.00. That's also now in-play as this afternoon's bias-down target. Other than room for noise below it to 2852.50, the next lower objective would be in the 2835.00 area.

2925.25-2933.00 earned back its kill-zone designation Friday morning. Probing Thursday afternoon's high by 4 points overnight had attacked 2837.00. A pullback in reaction to reports that China of readying a tariff hike had itself been retraced back toward the overnight high. And it was too late for relevant selling pressure to develop organically. A squeeze rally into the weekend needed only to get past Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole remarks. Then came the tariffs, and a 24-28 point collapse retesting Thursday's 2904.25 by 2 points. So far, only noise within the prior session's range. A squeeze rally into the weekend needed only to get past a post-open retest, or just start rallying. The retest held, but bias-down triggered. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour, but a bounce got up to 2928.00 anyway. Then came another headline warning of retaliation by fx intervention., and a 53-point collapse down to 2973.00. Trending down in a series of lower lows and lower highs fulfilled the afternoon's bias-down target by 6 ticks down to 2853.00, and exited the bias environment under the noon hour's low. Which is a Friday Factor, and is vulnerable to extending lower through the close. Which it did, probing the next lower objective at 2835.00 by 1 point, before bouncing back to 2848.00 at the cash session close, and to a 2860-handle through the futures close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2867.50 2867.75 ...would target 2880.25 2880.50 Bias-down: under 2839.00 2839.25 ...would target 2825.00 2825.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.