Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's open was in recovery mode from having probed Sunday night lows overnight, failing to reach the 2095.00 objective that had been put into play Wednesday afternoon. Two attacks on 2114.50 were held and reversed up sharply, to and through the relevant 2134.00 level, testing 2144.50 as the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. A sell signal at 2140.50 was probed twice, never deeper than its first 3 minutes, not until after the cash session close.greeted by three main influences. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high, but buyers otherwise gained no traction. Overnight action's new info... The pattern of substantial swings into expiration is still playing out. Thursday's late sell signal under 2140.50 extended down without delay to its 2134.75 and 2132.25 objectives, which retraced the afternoon's 1:20 print AND its bias-down signal. Then volatility disappeared, as price ranged narrowly back up to 2136.00. Europe's opens broke the mood, triggering a couple of downlegs that have now tested support at this morning's 2127.00 bias-down target. If, then... Not gapping up limits the potential for a morning rally, since yesterday's buyers gained no traction. Maintaining a gap down under 2134.00 helps to reject the single close above it yesterday, which threatened the ongoing distribution pattern. The close must also reject any intraday probe above 2134.00, with the aid of only a slightly bearish WedEX. That, and the overnight decline's momentum, which seems to be snapping back down after yesterday's rally had stretched the rubber band. But regardless of opening level, the most reliable directional indicator will be how the first 15 minutes of volatility resolves its gap down. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2127.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2121.25. Exiting the open under 2130.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2132.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight drop extended through the open. Testing the 2127.00 bias-down target overnight had produced a bounce that recovered the last downleg from 2136.00. Its test and retest greeted the open at 2131.00, on the way down to retest 2127.00. Breaking under 2127.00 through 10:15 has renewed the bias-down signal, next targeting 2121.25. Meanwhile, the open gapped down under 2134.00 to help reject yesterday's close above it. Closing under 2134.00 would help confirm this remains a distributive environment, likely to resolve bearishly. Extending down to 2123.25 while 1-minute RSI diverged positively is producing a bounce. It's now testing 2132.50, and could still test 2134.00. But back under 2128.50 would signal the drop had resumed. This being expiration -- quadruple witch, no less -- sudden reversals are more possible, if not likelier. Exiting the bias environment back above its 2132.75 bias-down signal (being attacked now to within 1 tick) would suggest a bottom for the day is in. The afternoon otherwise remains likely to trend down.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2140.75  2133.00 ...would target  2146.50  2139.00 Bias-down: under  2131.75 2124.25 ...would target  2125.75  2118.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Retesting this morning's low. The gap down at 2131.00 and slide to 2123.25 was retraced entirely during the morning's bias environment. The 2132.75 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick where its resistance produced a reaction back down to 2125.50. The noon hour bounced again, to within 3 ticks of 2132.75. Resistance pushed back again. This afternoon's 2124.25 bias-down signal didn't trigger, but it is being tested anyway down to 2123.00. Being a no-bias environment, its 2124.25 bias-down signal should define the range's lower-end. And, so far, it is. No bar probing a fresh low under 2124.25 isn't also overlapping 2124.25. And its test has reacted up to 2127.25. The bias environment will come within view of lapsing at 2:15-2:20. Breaking under 2124.25 would then be entirely credible for resuming the drop. The leg underway Wednesday afternoon would be confirmed under 2121.25, still targeting 2095.00. The alternative to breaking lower today isn't necessarily to rally, but at least firming back toward today's high.

Friday afternoon's dip to its 2124.25 bias-down signal was probed down to 2123.00. RSIs were borderline oversold,. That held a test of the morning's low, as much as it chipped away at its support. Its reaction up momentarily probed fresh session highs and touched 2134.00. Which held as resistance, after having gapped down under it. So, the distributive signal remains intact, distributive action persists, resistance held when it had an opportunity to recover, and any unfinished business is below. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

I'll send a link overnight to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2143.50 2136.00 ...would target  2148.75  2141.50 Bias-down: under  2131.50  2124.25 ...would target 2125.50  2118.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.