Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's 2571.00-2576.00 opening range resolved down to test the 2566.75-2268.50 area that Monday's drop had optimistically avoided. Perhaps to compensate for the delay, it was probed momentarily down to 2564.50. Recovering to overlap 2570.00 at 10:15 and 10:30 was too shallow to confirm that sellers were done. Rallying further to 2578.00 was too late to avoid triggering its bias-down. Dipping through the noon hour held 2570.00 as support, but recovered only to attack the morning's 2578.00 highs. However slight, that pessimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but not intraday. Overnight action's new info... The Globex open only trended down, soon attacking 2566.75-2268.50 to within 1 tick. The range was pierced as support by a 4-point range up to 2572.50 through midnight. Then the reaction down resumed through Europe's opens, and through yesterday's low, touching 2562.00 before bouncing again. That bounce is ongoing, first consolidating just under the 2566.00 bias-down target, and now probing it to attack 2568.00. If, then... Yesterday's test of 2566.75-2268.50 didn't recover 2570.00 through its relevant timing window, and that has undermined buying ever since. The afternoon's ineffectual pessimism now joins Monday afternoon's mild upside traction, as yet to be fulfilled by even an obligatory probe of a higher high. Neither setup is influential enough to require fulfilling its contrarian signal. And in my work, multiple unfulfilled setups don't join forces like super heroes or compound to reinforce their own contextual signals. Rather, NOT fulfilling multiple setups can resolve substantially in the opposite direction. Which is why the templates for this pattern don't include ranging. Either last week's highs will be attacked and perhaps retested before a bigger decline begins, or else overwhelming sponsorship for a bigger decline has already arrived. Now 2563.75 is being retested, for which there is no bullish reason. It's overnight test can still be rejected by exiting the open above a relevant level. That had been 2570.00 for the 2566.75-2268.50 area, but the deeper test now requires recovering 2574.00. Greeting the open with one-way relentless overnight trending often finds its sponsorship has been expended, making a reversal easier. This setup is similar to the two I referenced above -- and if the open doesn't exploit it, then its resolution can be as bearish as it could have been bullish. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2563.75 would be unlikely to recover the 2566.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2569.75 would be unlikely to exceed the 2566.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2568.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2571.50 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome welcome back it is Wednesday it's time for Wednesdays morning market tour this Market is not slowing down and it's volatility even if it's in a Range that's fine because it is ranging widely ultimately even if it's in a Range the range is either distributive as what is coming to look like a head and shoulders with more symmetry than there was on Thursday after Thursday's low The Head and Shoulders looking like this no complex had we talked about that this weekend and this is really all we had as of Friday just not the Symmetry between the left and right shoulders but now after yesterday getting a little bit more in there and not today actually starting to chip away at support that's not to say that it will ultimately become a head and shoulders the range Maybe still distributive and even in the context of being distributive doesn't prevent there being a break higher to retest the high or fill this Gap in either case something Above Down training resistance of This indoor internal resistance of this sideways range before rejecting and reversing that we are still looking at this as distribution we are still looking for some sort of a fullback and we are still monitoring for the potential that there isn't because we're coming into the seasonally bullish holiday still one week out next Thursday Thanksgiving when us markets are closed for the day and the following day is a half day and so many people take it off which means they make it into a four-day weekend but being a family-oriented holiday often there's traveling the day before so it becomes essentially a five day weekend as far as the markets concerned volume is at its lowest competing with July 4th holiday very low volume then so basically today's Wednesday whatever is going to happen in the market that is reflective of opinion that is that is able to be done with the liquidity that strong hands big money needs to maneuveris going to be done by Tuesday afternoonwould have put in the base would have stretch that rubber band so far and indicated that it was snapping back already that last week's highs would have been targeted didn't get it done and so I ran into trouble in trying to get it done from a shaky base yesterday may be compensated for the delay a little by actually getting that 6675 650 area tested and probed and fat as far as recovery 2573 irrelevant window it was still being overlapped at relevant Windows the relevant windows and it needed to be recovering already to indicate that this rubber band had been stretched and was already snapping back to the degree with the velocity that would have put into play a retest of last week's eyes and hear it again the problem and now the problem manifest buy once again retesting and 67-66 75 650 is irrelevant pretty much at this point it's an interesting reference point but now that 6375 is being requested for which there is no bullets reason at all it can still be isolated to the overnight testing an intra-day is might be a little surprising if there's any kind of bounce it all off of it if it is tested intraday but it can be isolated exit the open not just back about 2570 anymore 2570 a test of 6675 6850 would have recovered could have recovered through a relevant window to indicate momentum Staffing back up this is a much more elongated stretch and so it's bounce its snap could be done at 2570 or 25 71 72 I haven't tested 6375 in order to indicate that this stretch is done and I'd only snapping back up at snapping back up so substantially has to put into play last week size 2574 has to be recovered through a relevant timing window that stuff almost impossible maybe not for a market for which nothing seems impossible at times there are levels of recovery 2570 through the open and that will rob sellers of a lot of traction a lot of momentum and at least create the potential for another pattern to form that does get us back to some level remember yesterday was pessimistic and effectually pessimistic by stopping short of even probing the morning size the mornings High not even an obligatory Pro buyer before this that's interesting it's interesting to the overnight drop then does keep the door open to a recovery same thing Monday that's not that's not the strongest set up environment exit above the noon hour so I was by the sake of a handful of ticks extension that's not the strongest confirmation the final hours entry would have been stronger but we do have these two contextual signals that suggest reaction down instead of extending hire a reaction down is just temporary we do have those two contextual signals and they haven't been fulfilled that they don't come just because they're not being fulfilled rather win a set up that is otherwise bullish or bearish and bullish a setup that is otherwise bullish that has done everything I can to produce that only needs to be fulfilled and isn't tends not to be fulfilled because of substantially overwhelmingcontrary force or counter-trend Force so we're going to come otherwiseRock impound there potentially bullish context we can pound that some overwhelming contrarian or counter-trend force is arriving often when that happens it happens it has to happen surprisingly that's why these setups even have time to form and often that happens because of a China input China is widely followed but still surprising and last night in fact that's been the cause of last night's drop pretty much first of all just noise but then bad dad coming from China we also have a potentially bullish setup in that overnight trending has been relentlessly one way Relentless One Way overnight trending often runs out of its sponsorship when we get to the open its sponsorship is more Global than domestic relative to the US and so it's really looking typically for an exit to its position as opposed to defending against a counter trip or cat or a recovery in this case could become one more of those setups a third one of those if it's not open 93079 38th Eastern if there's not already evidence evidence that sellers aren't maintaining control or I'm sorry that sellers aren't losing control if there's not already evidence of sellers losing control halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility then they're not losing control and instead reinforcements have arrived and remember how there's just no reason whatsoever to once again be revisiting 6375 that would be where that takes effect where 6375 Revisited and not somehow rejected then there's really no clear rejection of that at this stage if it's tested it today really big burden to reject that as well intraday to 6375 Touchton today pretty much says retest of the eyes Gap fill whatever above not influential the bigger decline that's trying to get in there before the season we bullish Thanksgiving holiday effects is getting in then the question is where we going and we'll talk about that if the brake is on 2553 is an attraction under 25 50 says 2543 the next attraction under 43 or under under 4150 the next attraction really finds an air pocket almost which we talked about I'll talk about again if it becomes relevant good Thanksgiving literally the last minute was back here but at least through the closes and now trying overnight to get out to finally fulfill the bottoming getting a little aggressive the battery to leave unfinished business below with the Gap if it succeeds at extending higher but this is the pattern the Euro also overnight so this big distributive pattern is Big I'm going chipping away 1760unlikely to have been fulfilled by just this one leg lower and it's cancerhaving an island nevertheless confirm by a second consecutive are closed today it's Target would be one 1970 keep in mind what I'm describing an es the potential for reversing the overnight drop could just as well work its way and often does into these other markets that are otherwise trending overnight Looney not have been yesterday although very wide-ranging so clearly this pattern wants to resolve one way or the other and it has unfinished business above if not a break out there trying to confirm pound little bit higher yesterday so not really rejecting yesterday's chipping away at the 130 190 inflection in The Odyssey which was testing the last couple days the inflection 7630 35 lower here overnight gold to fill this Gap outstanding Gap is not to within a certain degree or any degree of some reasons to be suspicious about the recovery but only Monday afternoon and so being tested here in that doesn't have any excuse any excuse not to trigger that recovery silver as well came back up to 1705 it's actual 1711 but it's a longer way off from indicating which continue to Consolidated instead of extending Down Deeper Than Friday's break under it any deeper than 150 to attack that had held previously he is recovering today closing is done what happens if we do area or just above the looks like an island it's not an island because it's in the context of it would not require so watch out for closing under 150 322 today having tested this rain today undermine the overnight bounce and all but ensure the next leg is down in a big way more thoroughly as of yesterday crude oil again to avoiddescription of what's going on herepretty consequential open good luck today .

Air pocket is retraced. Bouncing off the 2562.00 overnight low attacked 2570.00. Its reaction down retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the bounce, a constructive pullback -- if it could hold. But greeting the open at this morning's 2566.00 bias-down target immediately slipped. An air pocket under 2563.75 triggered a sell signal 2 ticks lower, and plunged 8 points to 2555.50. 2557.50 was the air pocket's minimum objective, and it was only overlapped, not broken. Ranging there launched a rally that retraced the post-open drop. All of it. Gapping down through the 2566.75-2568.50 area has recovered back through its upper-end to 2569.25. Entering the noon hour above 2570.00 would be constructive to isolating sellers to the morning. Exiting the noon hour above 2574.00 would help to confirm. But back under 2566.00 would target at least a pullback to 2560.00, and potentially an even deeper decline. The challenge here couldn't be more relevant. Trapping this morning's drop would suggest it is a capitulative end to the pullback from last week's highs (see the bigger picture chart below). There is a brief opportunity to bottom after fulfilling and reacting to downside targets and supports. NOT isolating sellers by today's close -- instead, letting them gain traction for the open's effort, and not letting the recovery gain traction for its effort -- would further suggest a deeper decline is underway.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2574.75 2573.25 ...would target  2581.00  2579.50 Bias-down: under  2566.75  2565.25 ...would target  2561.50  2560.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's recovery on pause. Not only was the 10-11 point post-open drop under 2566.00 retraced, but it was exceeded to touch 2571.50. That's the morning's bias-down signal, which was required to define the window's upper-end, and did. Its 2566.00 bias-down target could have held, too, but it was tested as support into the noon hour. 2566.00 is being retested now into the afternoon bias environment. This afternoon's 2565.25 bias-down signal was barely attacked, and not triggered. It's difficult to take too seriously any recovery attempt that hasn't yet exceeded 2574.00 through a relevant timing window. Resuming the rally this afternoon would have no difficulty exceeding 2574.00. Breaking lower during the bias environment or coming out of it would be difficult to reverse up -- let alone, to reverse up sufficiently -- into the close. Possible, but difficult.

There has been no bullish reason to revisit 2563.75 since its last test produced a fresh high. Breaking lower can still be avoided if the test is isolated. Wednesday morning's test was isolated to the opening 15 minutes of volatility. At least, the air pocket below 2563.75 was contained within that window and to its 2557.50 objective. The 10:15 and 10:30 windows were testing 2563.75 as resistance. Sellers weren't rejected any more or any less than when Tuesday's initial dip held its 2566.75-2568.50 objective and only only bounced to test 2570.00 instead of recovering it. Bounces are still possible, but they've been originating from a position of weakness, dooming them to failure. A higher low at 2560.00 Thursday -- instead of first rejecting a fresh low -- could launch more than a bounce. But any initial selling must still be recovered above a relevant level through a relevant window to form a position of strength. Alternatively, gapping and trending higher through 2574.00-2577.00 would also be bullish, leaving a retest of this week's lows outstanding until next week. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2570.00  2568.50 ...would target  2575.00  2573.75 Bias-down: under  2560.50 2559.25 ...would target 2554.75  2553.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.