Real Time Day Trading Signals - 01-10-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday gapped down to the 2268.25 target of Friday's late sell signal. That also tested "lower prior highs" from Wednesday and Thursday. And ultimately after touching 2263.50, the morning's 2265.50 bias-down signal held. But the reaction stopped short of filling the gap back up to Friday's 2271.25 close. Such pessimism persisted through the session, without producing a break lower. The morning's 2275.50 objective was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Monday's late dip to fresh afternoon lows at 2264.00-2265.00 barely delayed extended much lower. First dipping to 2262.00 was consolidated, and then extended to 2259.50 soon after midnight. But a steep rally greeted Europe's opens at 2266.00. A quick reaction down attacked 2262.00 and soon recovered entirely. If, then... Of two or three bullish templates at this stage, overnight action is tracking one -- isolation. Probing a fresh low overnight can be isolated by maintaining an open back above Monday's lows. The minimum reward for this setup would be to probe above Friday's 2277.00 high. Now that fresh lows have been probed overnight, also rejecting a fresh post-open low could reverse momentum up intraday. Regardless, not exploiting either bullish setup this morning would reinforce Monday's break. And that would essentially point down into Wednesday morning, or longer, to 2247.00 or 2235.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2263.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2268.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2271.50 bias-up signal.

Overnight low's retest is retraced. The first tick was essentially flat but that was followed immediately by a spike down to 2261.50. Its consolidation through the first 15 minutes -- and through the first half-hour -- held yesterday's 2263.50 lows as resistance. The isolation setup failed. So did any attempt to reject the open's probe under yesterday's lows. That's bearish. Another spike down during the first half-hour of 4-1/2 points touched the 2259.50 overnight low. Recovering it almost entirely in time to invoke the grace period barely recovered the 2263.00 bias-down signal in time to avoid triggering bias-down. That's bullish. Now a surge has touched fresh post-open highs at 2266.00. Which would certainly seem bullish. One problem, though, and it's the same problem that plagued yesterday's recovery attempts -- too late. Like yesterday's blip-up just AFTER entering the final hour, and a small surge just AFTER the proxy window had closed. This surge originated just AFTER 10:30, when a fresh post-open high would have been optimal. That's mixed signals. Probing under the 2263.00 area as the bias environment begins lapsing would reject the late signal. It would also be credible for resuming yesterday's opening break that today's open tried to resume. Nothing can reinstate this morning's potentially bullish scenarios, but exiting the bias environment above 2268.00 would undermine the bearish scenario.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2278.50 2273.00 ...would target  2283.50  2278.25 Bias-down: under  2272.00  2266.75 ...would target 2266.50  2261.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning rally fulfills its objective. Noon hour probing higher. This morning's 2263.00 bias-down signal did not trigger. Its grace period triggered late no-bias. It was by only a 2-tick margin, and not a new post-open high. So, it wasn't optimal, but it was no-bias, and it put into play an offsetting test of the 2271.50 bias-up signal. It was met before noon.

So, what about the bearish open? Despite being productive, dropping 5 points to touch the overnight low, it didn't extend down, and didn't prevent rallying. It also didn't leave unfinished business below. But it wasn't rejected. We'll come back to that.

2271.50 was still being tested at noon. So was the peak of yesterday morning's bounce. And the gap back up to Friday's close was filled, also holding at noon. Entering the noon hour any higher would have been bullish. An attraction above at 2275.50 is helping to attract price higher -- it's not in-play, but it's the next higher objective if the noon hour isn't exited back under the last relative low. The last relative low is 2269.50, and its break would start to signal a reversal down. Its objective would be to retest this morning's low. Its structural weakness already suggests the rally from it won't last. New highs won't negate the structural weakness.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2272.75 2267.25 ...would target  2278.50  2273.25 Bias-down: under  2266.50  2261.25 ...would target 2262.00  2256.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Tuesday afternoon's drop from 2274.00 tested Monday's lows down to 2263.25. That was essentially the upper-end of Tuesday morning's opening range. That opening range had prevented isolating the overnight probe under Monday's lows. And that was bearish. Clearly, not bearish in extending further down, but bearish in forcing a rally to retrace. Only retracing? And, only retracing to the opening range's upper-end? That's hardly a consequence. Probing under 2263.25 is still likely. Retesting the open's 2259.50 low is likely, too. Probing under 2257.50 would be likely to resume Tuesday's opening decline (which was trying to resume Monday's gap down) and target at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25. Bouncing first could peak at 2272.00, or else probe new highs -- if not also produce a new high close that neutralizes all upside attractions. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.