Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Two separate China trade/tariff headlines guided Tuesday's sentiment. Monday's late breakout had initially extended higher to attack 3297.00 into the overnight Globex session. But it was soon retraced, and eventually reversed sharply on China trade deal concerns. The 21-point overnight drop was retraced to within 2 points at 3295.00. So close. A China tariff headline triggered a 17-1/2 point plunge to attack 3277.00, and the balance of the session ranged very choppily. The cash session close was down only 5 points from 3288.50, and futures narrowed its deficit to 1 tick. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex began by dipping back toward the afternoon's low at 3277.75. Globex continued by bouncing back toward its open to 3286.25. Repeat. Another dip back toward the low, and then a bounce back up to 3286.25, all contained within yesterday afternoon's range. A shallower dip at Europe's opens was recovered to attack unchanged at 3288.50, still within the earlier overnight range, and now reacting down on GS earnings miss. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Only attacking yesterday's low without actually touching it, its simultaneously oversold RSIs remain "unfinished business" requiring an eventual retest. Unfinished business above remains outstanding from yesterday at 3296.75 and at 3298.00. Meanwhile, yesterday's structure formed a bearish Pivot Reversal, lacking an optimal element to only suggest the air is getting pretty thin up here. And now having only fluctuated overnight within yesterday afternoon's range, attempting a breakout within 60-90 minutes of the open would likely retrace back into the range post-open, at least initially. The inert indecisive setup would be appropriate considering today's high-profile competing sentiments: signing the China trade deal, and the House vote on referring its impeachment. Perhaps the ongoing earnings onslaught can be a tie breaker that prevents paralysis by anxiousness. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3284.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3281.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3277.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3290.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 3293.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

While recovering from a pre-open dive. Dropping 9-1/2 points before the open didn't make a bearish resolution any likelier this morning. Pre-open strategy gave a benefit of the doubt to an early probe above the 3284.25 preliminary indication as a buy signal. But a post-open test of yesterday's low would have been likely to hold and recover, anyway. A last-minute touch of the 3281.00 bias-down signal suddenly surged back up to and through overnight highs to 3291.00. And that has resolved up to within 3 ticks of 3298.00, resolving its "unfinished business" that yesterday's China trade headline diverted. An intraday retest of the 3297.00 new Globex trend extreme is also neutralized. Meanwhile, the post-open surge gained no traction for its effort. The 3293.00 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. The bias-up signal need not define the window's upper-end like a no-bias environment. The rally can continue like a bias-up environment, but the bias-up target doesn't require being met.

3298.00 is still being attacked. It might be probed, and even left behind by higher highs. We're giving a buy signal ever benefit of the doubt. We're also remaining cognizant of yesterday's Pivot Reversal that suggests the air is thin up here. Yesterday's knee-jerk reaction down helps to neutralize that potentially bearish influence, as its sponsorship is by definition weak-handed. But its recovery hasn't yet withstood a close.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3297.25 3298.00 ...would target 3302.50 3303.25 Bias-down: under 3290.00 3290.75 ...would target 3283.50 3284.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

For a second time today. On this 7th consecutive session of higher intraday highs, a 2nd intraday bias parameter has triggered noN-bias. This morning's bias-up signal was being tested, and this afternoon it was bias-down. Each was still being overlapped in time to invoke the grace period, and still being tested when their grace periods lapsed. The bias parameters are still influential to price action as support and resistance, but not predictive if held or broken. No bias objective is in-play, or limiting. Often, the noN-bias environment will either fluctuate around its bias signal, or else trend away from it substantially.

Notice that this is developing around yesterday's close -- Monday AND Tuesday's closes, actually. Closing in negative territory after gapping down and probing fresh highs would form another Pivot Reversal session, which would continue to suggest the air is thin up here. Stated another way, yesterday's Pivot Reversal already suggests the air is thin up here, making today more vulnerable to closing negative.

Exiting the bias environment back above the 3290.75 bias-down signal would help to marginalize sellers. Back above yesterday's 3295.00 high would be more likely to rally through tomorrow morning.

Wednesday's pre-open dip to 3279.00 was reversed through the morning to a new high at 3299.00. It was the 7th consecutive session to probe above its prior session's high. Wednesday also threatened to be the 2nd consecutive Pivot Reversal session. But reversing the new trend high back down to 3281.50 not only held the open's 3281.75 low -- more so, the 3291.00 close recovered 3283.25 and 3288.00 to recover positive territory. New trend high reversed back into negative territory, again. Late reaction to new trend high avoids reversing momentum down, again. The last half hour's recovery did extend almost 13 points to 3294.25. That much late trending suggests its sponsorship was weak-handed pessimists getting squeezed out of their shorts. The new high close doesn't quite offset Tuesday's warning that the air is thin up here. The late surge came too late to gain traction for its effort. But gapping up Thursday would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Oversold RSIs at 3281.50 require an eventual retest. Wednesday morning's rally neutralized "unfinished business" above and no other higher attraction was created. Anxiousness surrounding the China trade deal's signing and the House's impeachment referral were neutralized, too. The market is free to focus on earnings releases. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3296.00 3296.75 ...would target 3302.25 3303.00 Bias-down: under 3284.50 3285.25 ...would target 3277.00 3277.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.