Real Time Day Trading Signals - 04-21-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap up didn't even touch Wednesday afternoon's high. But bias-up was triggered and the gap was maintained. The 2345.50 bias-up target's attraction restarted the rally as the bias environment began lapsing. That started a rally into the afternoon bias environment's 2358.25 high. The rally's next higher objective at 2355.00 was neither confirmed nor rejected through a relevant timing window. The close eventually drifted back down to 2352.00, whose break through the close would have rejected the test of 2355.00. Overnight action's new info... Hovering narrowly at 2352.00 support had begun firming to greet Europe's opens at 2356.00. But that was only retraced to attack 2352.00. Now a bounce is attacking 2356.00. If, then... NOT closing above 2355.00 did NOT put into play 2360.00-2361.00. But that does NOT preclude it being tested. The setup DOES make it difficult to exceed 2360.00-2361.00 if tested, and difficult to reverse if exceeded. Fresh overnight lows would have to be substantial to reverse momentum down into the open, and to avoid testing 2360.00-2361.00. Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX's afternoon influence is looming, and it's possible that yesterday's rally was exaggerated by expiration jockeying. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2357.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2352.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2349.75 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it's Friday it's time for Friday's Market or its expiration that's interesting it is expiration after a tremendous rally yesterday what was the session long Miley behavior well I said she Long Valley Behavior that didn't trigger above the prior afternoon Hyatt triggered at the open it triggered at the noon at the bar beside it into the noon-hour above the noon hour so interesting interesting that I timing Windows strike even the expert on his own time in Windows can learn something from his own timing windows and maybe that is a new set up and I'll be testing for it which is interesting because it brings out some other instances of similar to Clines it started late set up here anyway produced a lady looking likely to follow through just applying some such a long valley principal or characteristics to this following session because it's Echelon the rally will tend to extend into the next morning not necessarily durably which is interesting as well because overnight is it react it wasn't rejecting what yesterday's clothes didn't reject them that was testing 23 5555 if exceeded would next Target 6061 and that was calculable couple days ago actually that last Thursday as we were bouncing had that taken off that was the next objective 6061 it happens now go to be coming siding with this down sign it down trending resistance from the highs interesting show 2355 if it is closer to put that in the play already 6061 instead it's not in play it also wasn't rejected 2355 was still being tested through relevant timing Windows now the clothes could have dipped under 52 and by proxy had explained it so 55 did hold 52 Hill so little is much pressure is could have been expended without rejecting 55 was expended and by the way the test at 35 and windows so that extending hired to test 66210 it's not actually in play on play but if it is tested it's tested from an unstable base basically that window needed to extend higher it didn't at least it did expend all available energy all selling pressure that is without reversing down so there's that justification to snap back up that set up the snap back up and it isn't being rejected overnight to let something weird happens pretty open and this drinking time prior to the open today actually took a rub down under 45 that holds under 45 idealizing pressure to expand Justin get to support and then be expected to extend them which isn't so unless that happens 6061 likely to be tested the question is whether it succeeded 360 60 1 Word a hold an early test this morning like 55 held its late test the likelihood is that we react down from there and trim down from there especially since there is a baritz wed x number the Barons FedEx Signal like I said it has nothing to do with Thursday Thursday can change it by getting up high enough it didn't otherwise the bearish wed x signal tells us that price action into and out of the weekend Friday afternoon or Monday morning he is likely to trim down we'll see if we have 61 going to be a little suspicious of that bearishness coming but if 6061 is tested this morning and it's already reacting down into the new down especially but we acting out into negative territory there's whole lot of ground done had I can be covered in the afternoon as well by the way I don't mean to discount or at least dismiss the potential for extending R23 6061 is take it out the next time jective is the last Touch of this down training resistance the last touch was that f1c minutes couple Wednesdays ago fomc minutes reaction there happens to be over but are inside at that first time at standing got a big influence but Wednesday we were to get into a door but it would be big attraction so there's room to 75 and higher 6061 is taking out on a timely basis alright go ahead and post them before they open today we do have a Saturday review tomorrow morning don't forget set up here it set up this is day 3 that would have been like had a close to higher than the second as high as opposed to dip and back down into its range that did happen to neutralize the gap bad to back to Wednesday's close so downside attraction is neutralized that doesn't prevent extending down anyway in fact we have extended down any way back down to 107 25 which is the bicycle that was triggered sort of but not confirmed so we're not looking for one around here the ones that if we do know other than closing to 107 25 or 8 we diminish the upside momentum still need to close under-16 8506 92 reverse it down with the euro is that if there were up for today it would likely fail and likely fail so much as to close negative Lily is really followed through on it cell signal and it's a traction back down to the Lowe's lower level or ventral little close is outstanding I don't have a set up and won't have it set up maybe we'll have something in here I mean you can just sort of C resistance for me but that shirt is really still being Consolidated and in The Odyssey still attracted to really needs to fill this Gap as I said at the time even though we knew there was a overdue corrective bounce coming to at least 75 50 that that's no way to to form a bottom but leaving a big gap at staying like that so it's quickly on the way to being traced silver gave way it already closed Tuesday under the 1830s pull back on it it's been a couple days covering their yesterday's break under it at least held 1790 support member that was a big objective on the way up still holding it overnight so at this point clothes back about 18 18 closing back about 1818 would be considered again has a Buy Signal as credible for ancestry test in the hive will probably be launching the rally higher highs or lows gold meanwhile I'm really really took the edge off from sellers win Wednesday's drop fill the gap and held it and by hovering there yesterday suggest that there's some backing and filling to the upside probably fill in the Gap that to the 1294 area before any kind of down so I can be that credible huge huge close up here needs to be filled it's not required before some downside downside Target cell signal Target and now we're just waiting the target met quickly help quickly this just go to signal in here that requires extending that any deeper the quick reaction down for meeting at 5355 Target or at least quickly holding it not a lot of back in feeling here does suggest that it can be rested even in the most Bears scenario but no active natural gas once again holding 313 cell signal so keeping a lot of potential for about to 327 before the job is completed if there's a question and don't forget about tomorrow

Modest opening grind undermines trending. Fluctuating around 2355.00 pre-open continued to underscore the level's relevance. But its attraction didn't last into the open, which was greeted back down at 2352.00. Multiple tests of the 2349.75 bias-down signal held as support. But its reactions were brief and shallow. 2349.75 was still being overlapped both at 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. No offsetting test of the bias-up signal is required, nor is the bias-down target in-play. Fresh lows could test 2345.00, so long as a bounce doesn't recover 2352.00. None of which affects the bearish WedEX whose influence begins this afternoon. No higher objectives are in-play -- the flat open didn't create a gap, and holding 2355.00 left nothing higher in-play. Still, rejecting 2355.00 would have been more bearish, so bouts of buying pressure might not be done.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2356.25 2352.75 ...would target  2360.75 2357.50 Bias-down: under  2349.25  2346.00 ...would target  2344.25  2340.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bearish WedEX isn't hibernating. This morning's break tested all but 1 tick of its 2345.00-2346.00 objective. Reacting up to 2350.75 was reversed down immediately at noon. Immediately, and substantially, back into the 2345.00-2346.00 range. Flat-to-higher ranging resolved down coming out of the noon hour. Substantially, plunging to touch this afternoon's 2340.75 bias-down target. Holding the bias-down target doesn't renew this afternoon's 2346.00 bias-down signal. But this is nevertheless a bias-down environment. And the afternoon's bearish WedEX is apparently exercising its influence. Yesterday's 2341.00 opening print is obligatory support. Its break would next target filling the gap back down to Wednesday's 2334.00 closes, and essentially 2327.25 below it. Recovering 2350.50 would be earliest to suspect a bullish resolution underway.

Was Friday's bearish WedEX influential? The session contained a couple of productive downlegs. But the signal applies to the afternoon, and the afternoon's downleg was largely retraced. The morning had already trended down from 2352.00 to 2345.00. Bouncing reversed down suddenly at noon to attack the morning's low. The noon hour's exit broke sharply lower to touch the afternoon's 2340.75 bias-down target. Pretty productive. Bouncing to 2349.50 was triggered by news that tax reform is coming next week. That's an artificial catalyst. And anyway, the bounce didn't recover the noon hour's high, so the intraday trend remained down. We're assuming WedEX was mildly influential, which means that it should be very influential on Monday. Friday's drop retraced all of Thursday's post-open gains. And since Friday's low was at the obligatory support of Thursday's 2341.00 gap open, the afternoon's bounce is extra vulnerable to being retraced. Its break could open the floodgates. Meanwhile, the burden of proof is on the recovery to reassert itself. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

REMINDER: This weekend's Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET -- I'll email its link to you early in the morning. See you there!

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2354.00 2350.50 ...would target  2359.50  2356.00 Bias-down: under  2344.50  2341.00 ...would target 2338.50  2335.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.