Real Time Day Trading Signals - 04-22-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday night's recovery attempt up to 2104.00 had been retraced to greet Thursday's open unchanged around 2096.00. The reversal extended through the open and through the afternoon to attack 2082.00. The last 60-90 minutes ranged choppily sideways ahead of post-close earnings from GOOG and MSFT. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Overnight action's new info... Plunging in reaction to earnings extended down to test 2078.00. Its reaction up extended higher relentlessly, probing the late-afternoon 2087.50 resistance up to 2089.00. Europe's opens began a reversal that extended to 2079.00, which -- like the post-close plunge -- has been retraced back up to 2087.50. If, then... The chart reminds me of the iconic cat poster "Hang in there, weekend's coming!" The drop from Wednesday afternoon's doomed high is dangling at support -- and there's a bit of a drop below. There's also a way up. Having trended down into Thursday's close, gapping up Friday above the afternoon's 2090.25 high could form a "session-long rally" setup. And a retest of last year's last relative highs at 2110.00 would not be difficult to reach. Testing 2090.25 at or just before the open would require either forming the setup, or else duplicating yesterday's decline. And that would target 2076.00 if not also 2067.00. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 Exiting the open under 2079.00 would be likely to trigger the 2081.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2083.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2093.75 would be likely to trigger the 2091.00 bias-up signal.

One test held didn't prevent later breaking the bias-down signal. The open blipped down to test the 2081.75 bias-down signal by 1 point. Its reaction up recovered to and through yesterday's late 2087.50 highs, up to the 2089.00 overnight high. But no higher. And that has all been reversed. The 2081.75 bias-down signal has been probed down to its 2075.50 bias-down TARGET. This came after signaling no-bias at 10:15. And it came after holding the bias-down signal's retest at 10:30. So, this is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced back to the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Even higher, to fulfill the offsetting test of the 2092.00 bias-up signal.

All of that can be rendered moot. Since the 10:15 high was never bettered, exiting the bias environment under the 2075.50 bias-down would not leave any "unfinished business above."And room to 2067.00 below.

Currently, oversold RSIs at the low are impeding a recovery, while a continuation pattern (Flag) has formed. Currently, there's still time to neutralize the downside by 11:30 to reinstate the upside. But currently there's no upside momentum.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2092.00 2086.00 ...would target  2098.00  2092.00 Bias-down: under 2080.75  2074.75 ...would target  2073.00  2067.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-down target held as support. We can't control the timing of headlines. Or of rumors. Or of whatever it was that triggered this morning's late break under the 2081.75 bias-down signal -- let alone the opening rally's rejection from 2089.00. The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:15 to put into play an offsetting test of this morning's 2092.00 bias-up signal. The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:30 to avoid invalidating what was signaled at 10:15. That didn't prevent its break soon after. But if that break were sponsored by strong hands, then it should have been underway already. Alternatively, strong hands would extend that break through the 2075.50 bias-down target through 11:30. 2075.50 was tested, and the test held. So, that wasn't strong hands sponsoring the morning's drop to it. The 2092.00 objective now becomes "unfinished business above." We still can't control the path there, since oversold RSIs at the low require its retest. But extending down to 2067.00 won't be done by strong hands, requiring its eventual recovery.

This morning's plunge was recovered throughout the afternoon. But it stopped short of touching Thursday afternoon's highs. Pessimistically short. And that's potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Unfinished business above left outstanding at 2092.00 can attract Monday's open and extend it into a probe of fresh highs that tests 2110.00. Meanwhile, delaying an upleg would be attracted down to Friday's oversold RSIs at 2075.00, and potentially lower to 2067.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2095.25 2089.25 ...would target  2102.25  2096.25 Bias-down: under  2086.25  2080.25 ...would target 2077.50  2071.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.