Real Time Day Trading Signals - 05-08-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s open gapped down 4 points to test 2070.00. Weak, but the much greater weakness of probing 4 points under Wednesday''s 2061.25 low was isolated to overnight action. A test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal was put into play and attracted price higher. Extending higher through the noon hour to 2088.00 created room to absorb afternoon selling without damaging the chart, and 2080.50 held its touch before the close.

Overnight action''s new info...
The closing bounce tested 2085.00 trended higher overnight and eventually probed fresh highs at 2091.25. Its reaction down attacked 2085.00, twice. Each attack bounced back above 2088.00, which is being probed again now.

If, then...
Critical resistance at 2090.00-2095.25 is being tested overnight. Its range has been pivotal during the past four weeks. Two prior closes under it were resolved by gapping up above and extending to new highs. Tuesday''s close under it didn''t recover, as price action since then has been exclusively under 2090.00-2095.25. A lot of energy would be expended to probe above it, so there could be a very bearish consequence to not maintaining its recovery through a relevant timing window. Which assumes it will be probed, at all, since this morning''s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness being below it.So, more than an initially negative knee-jerk reaction could find recent lows have chipped away at support. Either way, this being a Friday, the morning''s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade...
Preliminary levels are not available before an Employment Situation report. Look for their levels to be available in the chaRTroom after the report''s reaction.

Extending the payrolls reaction doesn''t prevent a dip.

The pre-open surge to 2106.00 resistance had reacted down to 2101.50 support. Ranging narrowly into the open suddenly surged back up to 2106.00. Exceeding it targeted 2111.00, which was tested to within 1 tick.

That was all before 10:15. There has been no higher high since then. The bias environment must be productive for sellers to be marginalized.

It''s true that the bias parameters are deprecated being so far removed from their origin. It''s silly to think that price action 25-30 points lower is very influential. More so, 2111.00 is a thrice-renewed bias-up target. Just the word "thrice" is silly. Thrice. Heh-heh.

But the bias timing window nevertheless contains a common mentality among its participants. If they don''t produce a fresh high, then perhaps buyers can from a lower level.

So, probing above 2111.00 before 11:30 would help to marginalize sellers for the day. Otherwise, a dip to 2104.25 or 2101.50 can''t yet be discounted.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2119.25
2114.75
...would target 2124.75
2120.50
Bias-down: under 2108.50
2104.25
...would target 2003.001998.50
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The pullback from testing 1.1380 extended down into Friday''s open, testing 1.1225-1.280 support down to 1.1185. Sellers didn''t gain traction from gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory without also breaking under a prior low. A fresh low Monday would be bearish, but there is otherwise potential back up to 1.1315.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Friday to attack 1194.50 was reversed to range choppily around 1187.00. Its break would be confirmed under 1182.70 as targeting new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday''s blip-up above 16.50 in reaction to the Employment Situation report was reversed back down initially, but the balance of the session ranged around it without signaling a resolution either way.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the recovery from Wednesday night''s test of 153-10 up to 156-03 had become a little extended into Friday''s Employment Situation report. Its knee-jerk reaction settled around 157-00 for the balance of the day. The bounce may extend to 157-16 without reversing the trend up, and while being vulnerable to retesting 154-02.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from testing 62.45 extended a little deeper Friday morning to 58.25. Much of a bullish "pivot reversal" setup formed -- gapping up in a downtrend and closing positive with an interim intraday dip to fresh trend lows. Back above 60.15 would resume the rally to at least retest 62.45.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s shallow pullback was reversed by gapping up to fresh highs Friday, with potential for extending to 3.00, so long as 2.80 support isn''t revisited.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2116.25
2112.00
...would target 2122.50
2118.25
Bias-down: under 2108.50
2104.25
...would target 2102.75
2098.50
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP
FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.