Real Time Day Trading Signals - 05-20-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Enough chipping away at 2035.00 support had essentially required probing fresh lows down to 2025.00-2027.00 Thursday. Gapping down was retraced to 2039.50 before resolving down to fresh lows at 2022.00. Firming into the noon hour extended choppily higher to test 2036.00 during the afternoon bias environment. That's where the cash session closed, despite the last hour briefly touching 2038.50. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's futures close had firmed back up to 2038.50. Globex action resumed the rally up to 2046.50 ahead of Europe's opens. Ranging back down to 2042.00 has tried once to break lower, and is now trying again. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's rally gained no traction for its efforts -- although it would have, had its last surge been 1 minute earlier. So, extending higher this morning relies on maintaining a gap up above prior highs. That's essentially 2045.50, which is serving as resistance overnight. Otherwise, trending down this morning would be more likely than to simply back-and-fill and to wait for the afternoon's bullish WedEX influence. How the open resolves a test of 2045.50 may determine whether we see 2033.00 and 2025.00-2027.00 again this week, or just 2056.00 and higher. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2040.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2043.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2045.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2048.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Big post-open rally. The intraday range of yesterday's probe of fresh lows was relatively narrow. That didn't necessarily contradict my ongoing assumption that we've entered a period of heightened volatility. An inside day would have been suspicious, but at least Thursday was being productive with a new low.

Well, volatility has returned -- with a vengeance. Gapping up to the 2043.00 bias-up signal soon extended to its 2048.50 bias-up target, and not much later has also touched 2054.00.

This is a renewed bias-up environment. Its 2055.00-2056.00 renewed bias-up target doesn't require being met.

RSIs diverged negatively at the high, and now a reaction down is testing 2050.50 down to 2049.00. Any lower could shift the balance of the morning to defense, with room down to its 2043.00 bias-up signal. Back above 2052.25 would more likely extend to 2055.00-2056.00. Exiting the bias environment under this morning's 2043.00 bias-up signal would invert this afternoon's bullish WedEX influence to bearish. Otherwise, even the most bullish WedEX would be fulfilled by only ranging flat-to-higher into the weekend (and delaying an aggressive rally until Monday morning).

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2059.25 2056.00 ...would target  2064.00  2061.00 Bias-down: under  2047.75  2044.75 ...would target 2042.75  2039.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Upside potential met, and corrected, in time for bullish bias. Yesterday afternoon's rally had not gained traction for its efforts. Extending it this morning required gapping up above a relevant prior high at 2046.50.

Eventually, the 2055.00-2056.00 renewed bias-up target was met (all but 1 tick of it).

None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX, which begins its influence at the 1:20 bias timing window. Inverting it now is very unlikely, essentially requiring that a new accumulative pattern be triggered, its target met, and its signal retraced. Barely enough time remains for dipping to 2048.00 or 2046.00 before a bullish bias takes over. Being vulnerable to a dip doesn't require it. And back above 2054.25 would suggest it's not coming.

WedEX signals tend to be more reserved on Friday afternoons. But, is this a little too reserved? The bias environment was entered at its 2053.25 high, and then dipped to 2047.50. Its reaction up to 2052.50 was reversed to a lower low at 2045.00. Lower lows and lower highs is what we call a downtrend. Downtrends aren't commonly associated with "bullish" signals. Bouncing to 2050.00 into the close did retrace 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to 2053.25, which is a proxy for it. The pullback held positive territory, above the open, leaving no unfinished business below. It's not optimal, but it's also not complete, and a valid recovery must extend higher without delay Monday. Gapping down would be disqualified. Otherwise, extending higher Monday without delay would keep alive the aggressive half of the bullish WedEX. We'll discuss that and other influences during this weekend's Saturday Review. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2057.00 2054.00 ...would target  2064.00  2061.00 Bias-down: under  2046.00  2043.00 ...would target 2040.50  2037.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.