Real Time Day Trading Signals - 06-16-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Overnight optimism ahead of Wednesday's FOMC events left a little on the table for post-open gains. But only a little, and even less for the predictable relief "rally" (more accurately, a blip-up) on the no-change news. But it wasn't very long after Yellen's Q&A that a plunge fulfilled the balance of expectations by retesting 2063.50. It was still being tested at the close. Overnight action's new info... Ranging couldn't withstand the Nikkei plunging, triggering a break under Tuesday's 2054.75 lows down to 2051.75. That's where Europe's opens were greeted, and price has firmed to 2058.00. If, then... The only variable to yesterday's template not met was to probe or attack Tuesday's lows. Delaying either would only require a probe. Isolating that to the overnight session would require recovering to gap up at Thursday's open. Meanwhile, the 2043.00 objective remains in-play. And maintaining a gap down under Tuesday's lows could make the Bearish WedEx become Actively bearish, albeit delayed. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2050.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2053.00 bias-down target through 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2060.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2059.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Can the target form a bottom? Can it even hold. The decline's premise since topping at 2110.00 has been its likelihood for unfolding rapidly, and its potential to 2043.00. It unfolded rapidly, and 2043.00 has been met. Its first test bounced to 2047.00 before reversing to fresh lows at 2040.75. The next bounce is now probing back above 2045.00. And triggering a buy signal. The first reaction up from 2043.00 had targeted 2046.75. Its next reaction up would target 2049.00, so long as 2042.00 now holds as support. Attacking fresh lows to within 1 point would be likely to break lower, and probably extend down substantially. Meanwhile, holding 2043.00 would allow a bottom to begin trying to form.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2061.00 2053.00 ...would target  2066.00  2058.00 Bias-down: under  2052.00  2044.00 ...would target 2046.75  2038.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

News greets decline's target, corrective bounce ensues. The decline's 2043.00 target was identified originally while the rally was still topping at 2110.00. Potential for bottoming at 2063.50 was all but dismissed Tuesday. Gapping down today made 2043.00 likely to be tested this morning. And it was, down to 2040.75. But that doesn't equate to being a bottom. A bottom might have formed around 2043.00. Isolating its test to one timing window, retesting it during another, and recovering to close above the morning's 2054.00 high.

Still possible. But more difficult.

Tragic news surrounding Brexit triggered expectations for delaying next week's vote. That wouldn't be bearish. Its rumors were like throwing a lit match into the thick forest of selling pressures, which had dried out when its target was met

The 2053.00-2054.00 open was being tested at the bias environment's exit. The noon hour filled the gap back up to yesterday's 2062.75 cash session close. Consolidating back down to the 2058.00 bias-up target held and the bias-up signal has been renewed.

If the recovery extends higher today, let alone tomorrow morning -- entirely possible, especially with bias-up renewed -- then it would be at the expense of forming a durable bottom. Not retesting 2043.00 today would make its future retest less and less likely to hold.

The decline's 2043.00 target had been met, and probed to its maximum room for noise down to 2040.75. It was retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the post-open slide back up to 2049.00. The balance of the session could have been spent retesting 2043.00 to form a durable bottom, or to extend down. But simply retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the opening slide had started tracking another template. Entering the afternoon's bias environment above the open would open the door to extending well into positive territory. The recovery extended to 2071.50, 29 points off the low. But it's not bullish. Extending any higher wouldn't have made it bullish. The low was not retested during another timing window, and the open's gap down was not retested from above. All of which can be done Friday, but not as reliably to hold and form a bottom. Meanwhile, extending higher Friday morning is possible, but not durably (and probably not by gapping up) due to a bearish WedEX. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2083.00 2074.00 ...would target  2089.25  2080.50 Bias-down: under  2073.75  2065.00 ...would target  2068.25  2059.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.