Real Time Day Trading Signals - 07-01-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Lacking a single-minded relentless overnight rally didn't deter Thursday's intraday action from once again rallying sharply to fresh recovery highs. The open's gap up to 2068.00 first reacted down 7 points to fill the gap back to Wednesday's 2062.00 cash session close. Then the balance of the day resumed the rally. The last 60-90 minutes consolidated pessimistically short of touching last Thursday's 2089.75 "higher prior lows.". Overnight action's new info... Uncharacteristically narrow ranging developed mostly between 2085.00-2088.00. Dipping through Europe's opens down to 2081.50 was recovered back into the earlier range, and now the range's upper-end is being probed by fresh highs attacking 2090.00. If, then... Is it only a correction, or a recovery back to week's highs? "The latter, madam, if you can keep it." The maximum corrective rally had room up to last Thursday's 2089.75 higher prior lows, or else last Thursday's 2119.50 post-close highs would become targeted up to 2125.25. Stopping pessimistically short of the resistance yesterday afternoon is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Even the most bullish resolution doesn't preclude a temporary detour back down, like to 2071.00, whether from only attacking 2089.75 or after probing above it intraday. A more serious reversal down should have greeted today's open already in decline, which doesn't seem likely now. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2092.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Single-minded relentless rallying has come full circle. A post-open overt rally effort was all but assured when the overnight dip had recovered back up to yesterday's 2088.75 highs. This was all the more likely when their shallow pre-open probe hovered narrowly around 2090.00 -- that restrained optimism, or pessimism, was bullish from a contrarian perspective.

And that bullishness was soon realized.

The open surged to consolidate above the 2092.50 bias-up signal at 2094.00. Resolving up has extended to the 2098.25 bias-up target. The bias-up signal wasn't renewed, but fresh highs are being probed anyway to attack 2101.00.

Last Thursday's 2089.75 lower prior highs have been probed through a relevant timing window -- entering the bias environment. The recovery's reward is to probe Thursday's 2019.50 prior high. Creating this upside objective has entrenched the rally, which allows it to safely refuel by dipping. No other refueling opportunity this week has been exploited. Today's "Friday Factors" introduce vulnerabilities, but don't require a different resolution to the recent pattern. And those vulnerabilities didn't prevent already probing through last Thursday's mid-day congestion around 2098.25. One of those Friday Factors is the tendency for afternoon ranging or backing-and-filling. Early trending can be exacerbated by afternoon orders being shifted forward. I doubt there's much appetite left for getting long up here, but there still may have been a lot of short-covering. Regardless, we'll soon see whether yet another relentless rally can still be so single-minded.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2107.25 2099.25 ...would target  2113.00  2105.25 Bias-down: under  2098.00 2090.25 ...would target 2092.25  2084.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Opening surge being retraced. This morning's surge from its 2089.00 open to attack 2100.00 has retraced steadily into the noon hour's exit at 2092.00. This action helps to confirm that the opening strength was fueled by weaker handed buyers fearing another runaway session. Dipping through the noon hour need not recover, let alone resume the rally. Not today. Which leaves potential for a late-afternoon slide. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 still in positive territory could at least undermine fresh lows, but not necessarily inspire a rally. Nothing about this morning's rally makes an afternoon slide any less likely. It was never the likeliest scenario. Nevertheless, still not extending higher by 2:30 would be vulnerable.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY! We started the Market Wrap before Friday's close, and expanded it to cover the bigger picture since there is no Saturday Review this weekend. Thursday's last hour had hovered pessimistically short of 2089.75 "higher prior lows" from the pre-Brexit Thursday highs. Friday did the opposite by immediately surging higher to attack 2101.00. Timing windows recovered 2089.75 for long enough to further reward the rally with new highs. That means probing above the prior Thursday's post-close 2119.50 high, presumably to 2125.25. A corrective dip isn't required, but would have potential to 2076.00 or to 2071.00 without yet suggesting that Monday's 1981.50 lows might be retested first. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here (which includes the bigger picture review).

Globex will re-open normally Sunday evening at 6:00 ET and trade through 1:00 PM on the 4th, then re-open at 6:00 ET Monday evening.