Real Time Day Trading Signals - 08-19-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday afternoon's rally gained no traction for its effort, such as it was.bullish. Closing action retested the morning's 2184.25 peak, recovering from the noon hour's 2178.00 oversold low. This was after the session avoided backing-and-filling when its prior session had not gained traction either. No unfinished business was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Flat-to-slightly lower ranging touched 2181.25 before bouncing to within 2-3 ticks of Thursdays close. That coincided with Europe's opens, which triggered a steep, deep plunge attacking 2175.00. Its reaction up to 2179.50 has been retraced almost entirely back to the plunge's low. If, then... This afternoon's Bullish WedEX influence should start becoming evident after the noon hour. That's going to be difficult if that same window is not yet allowed to rally, which it won't be. Yesterday afternoon's rally didn't gain traction for its effort, so not gapping up makes rallying unlikely until the final 60-90 minutes. And the open is certainly not indicated to gap up... Meanwhile, gapping down under yesterday afternoon's low after having trended up into the close is going to form a "session-long decline" setup. This instance is based on very small measurements, and its size does matter, so I'm not letting it override indications by other setups. I would suggest giving sellers every benefit of the doubt for the morning if the open trends down. I'll give sellers every benefit of the doubt this afternoon if the morning trends down. And Monday could be very ugly if the session trends down. Avoiding bias-down is critical to resuming the rally at all. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2174.25 would be likely to trigger the 2177.00 bias-down signal at 10P:15. Exiting the open above 2179.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2177.00 bias-down signal.

Sellers already neutralized AND rejected. Opening just under yesterday afternoon's 2180.25 low could have recovered it to avoid forming a "session-long decline" setup. Not that the setup was very credible, rejecting only a shallow bounce. But avoiding it would have sent a bullish statement. Anyway, it wasn't rejected. Post-open action immediately resumed last night's plunge. But... Extending to fresh lows came within 3 ticks of the 2172.00 bias-down target. That's close enough to neutralize it from becoming "unfinished business below," an otherwise irrelevant observation this morning. But... Bias-down was invalidated. Despite triggering it at 10:15, and not invoking a grace period, recovering it through 10:30 has invalidated it. It's too late to put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal -- this is not a synthetic "no-bias," which needed to trigger by 10:15. But... It's bullish. Follow-through has tested fresh post-open highs up to 2181.50. Potentially very bullish. Today's other influences -- such as the bullish WedEX -- could be that much more productive. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment back under its 2177.00 bias-down signal would be bearish.

I pointed out during this morning's pre-open Tour that several setups were contradicting each other. Yet, rather than paralyze price action, this would increase volatility. The market doesn't try to disappoint the most participants at any given time. It tries ultimately to satisfy everyone. This is how it keeps their loyalty.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2184.25 2182.00 ...would target  2189.25  2187.00 Bias-down: under  2177.25  2175.00 ...would target 2172.00  2169.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

So far, so bullish. This morning's recovery up to 2181.25 resistance ranged narrowly sideways into the noon hour. And halfway through it. The noon hour's second half slid to 2176.00. Noon hour action is not yet subject to the WedEX influence. Bias environment is. And since entering the bias environment, price has improved to test 2179.50. That's in-line with a bullish WedEX. But it's only a bounce, and extending to fresh highs above 2181.25 would be helpful confirmation. Back under 2176.75 would start to signal a new downleg underway, which would not be appropriate for a bullish WedEX.

Entering the afternoon's bias environment at 2176.50 and trending up to fresh session highs at 2183.00 is entirely consistent with a bullish WedEX. While there's no assurance Monday's open won't gap down, post-open action is now substantially more likely to trend up, too, and more aggressively than Friday afternoon. Apart from that, no unfinished business was left outstanding. The open's gap wasn't under prior lows, requiring a retest. And the gap back up to Thursday's close wasn't filled entirely, but the lower-end of its structure was tested. The prior week's range was broken only temporarily on Monday. Calm before the storm? Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us at 9:30 am ET for Saturday Review in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2187.50 2185.00 ...would target  2192.25  2190.00 Bias-down: under 2178.25  2176.00 ...would target 2174.25  2171.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.