Real Time Day Trading Signals - 10-27-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open had gapped down 10 points to test its 2127.75 bias-down target. Fluctuating around it ultimately held to avoid renewing the bias-down. That base launched a surge to 2140.00 -- and that was just the morning. Retracing the morning's surge by 13 points touched 2127.25 and still had time for an attack on 2136.00. Overbought RSIs requiring an eventual retest were left outstanding at the high. Overnight action's new info... Drifting lower choppily, and eventually aggressively, only attacked Wednesday afternoon's low down to 2128.50. Firming into Europe's opens then became extremely volatile, surging 8 points to 2139.00, dropping 9 points, and now attacking 2139.00 again. If, then... Is that pessimism? Overbought RSIs at yesterday's 2140.00 high requires at least a retest, and now two surges have stopped short of touching it. The first surge's complete retracement has been recovered almost entirely. From a contrarian perspective, hesitating to break higher and not exploiting reversal opportunities is potentially bullish. Eventually, probing fresh highs becomes almost obligatory. Not rejecting the probe would likely extend significantly higher to older unfinished business above at 2148.00 and potentially higher. Otherwise, not extending early fresh highs would remain vulnerable to triggering a domino effect that leads to probing under 2118.00 and lower. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2135.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2138.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2140.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Increasingly larger pre-open legs overshadowed by post-open plunge. The last overnight upleg had retraced the prior 9-point rally, and extended 5 points higher to attack 2144.00. The 2142.00 open slid sharply back down to 2135.00. And that was just the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Not immediately, but soon the drop had resumed and extended down to 2126.75, 17 points under the pre-open high. All well within the first hour. The 2143.00 bias-up target was tested pre-open, by (barely) more than 15 minutes, so we can't assume its test was rejected. Otherwise, having also rejected a test of the 2138.00 bias-up signal, offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters would be in-play, including the 2122.50 bias-down target. Instead no-bias triggered. The 2129.75 bias-down signal's test is already fulfilled.

In fact, the bias-down signal was probed after 10:15. Maintaining its break through 10:30 would have invalidated the no-bias signal. But it was overlapped in time to maintain the no-bias signal. Probing under it would be "no-bias trending" that requires recovery.

Until the no-bias environment begins lapsing, a bounce to 2132.50 and 2135.75 is possible. But not required. Back under 2127.75 first would target 2124.50 and possibly the 2122.50 bias-down target. Regardless of an interim bounce, delaying a break lower for long enough would be free to trend down even deeper.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2141.75 2135.75 ...would target  2147.25  2141.50 Bias-down: under  2134.00  2128.25 ...would target 2128.50  2122.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning slide bounces, to a degree. The first hour's slide to 2126.75 held the 2129.75 bias-down target when it mattered, and avoided renewing the bias-down signal. The balance of the morning's no-bias environment was supported appropriately by 2129.75. The 2132.50 bounce target was fulfilled just as the bias environment began lapsing. Bounce potential to 2135.75 was fulfilled during the noon hour. Its resistance held.2135.75 is also this afternoon's bias-up signal. It did not trigger, and this is another no-bias environment. But there is no requirement during the afternoon for this setup to produce an offsetting test of the other bias signal. This pattern off the lows tends to produce another surge, similar to the noon hour's entry. Actually trending up to fresh highs -- or down, for that matter -- is difficult with two high-profile post-close earnings items coming from AMZN and GOOGL.Resolving up would help very much to reduce the ongoing vulnerability of a fresh session low triggering a much greater downleg.

The late-afternoon retest of this morning's oversold RSIs at 2126.75 was itself accompanied by oversold RSIs. Any bounce was again doomed to failure, and fresh lows were likely to test this morning's 2122.50 bias-down target. Ending the cash session above the morning's lows at 2127.75 quickly broke lower to touch 2122.50 into the futures close. AMZN's earnings miss may have been the catalyst for the post-close break. That didn't help alleviate any anxiousness ahead of GGOGL's earnings, each having greeted earnings from positions of weakness. Individual company earnings rarely affect the broader market's price trend, so the knee-jerk reaction is vulnerable to reversing back up Friday. Otherwise, lower lows could extend into the afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2137.25 2131.25 ...would target  2143.25  2137.50 Bias-down: under  2131.00  2125.25 ...would target 2124.50  2118.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.