Real Time Day Trading Signals - 11-19-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's 2056.00 open was greeted back where Tuesday afternoon's German soccer match threat had triggered a decline down to 2041.50. The balance of the morning trended up to probe Tuesday's 2063.50 high. Reaction to the afternoon's FOMC Minutes doubled the morning's gain, testing 2082.50 where the prior week's consolidation had peaked.  Buyers gained traction although they were largely rewarded by the close. Overnight action's new info... A shallow pullback to 2078.00 soon resolved up to fresh highs at 2085.00. That has extended to test 2089.00. If, then... Wednesday's WedEX was testing a prior high, instead of exceeding it or rejecting it. Thursday's open can serve by proxy, and maintaining a gap up would be bullish for Friday afternoon. In the interim, the rally gained traction Wednesday afternoon, and a gap up is indicated, so not rejecting it could extending higher before noon. Otherwise, the rally since Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon does allow room for inverting down without reversing the uptrend. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2089.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2085.75 would be likely to trigger the 2082.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2079.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Hovering in positive territory isn't necessarily strength. The pre-open slide from 2089.25 probed negative territory after the open. But only slightly, and only briefly, basically testing 2077.50 support. Its reaction up tested the 2082.75 bias-up signal, probing it by 1 point. Twice. But the hesitant selling and the repeated bouncing matter less than price action at a relevant timing window. At 10:15 the bias-up signal had held its test. This is a no-bias environment. And since a fresh low printed after 10:15, invalidating the no-bias signal requires exiting the bias environment above the pre-10:15 2083.75 high. Meanwhile, an offsetting test of the 2072.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Although not required, I would expect that to visit 2068.00, too.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2085.00 2081.75 ...would target  2090.75  2087.50 Bias-down: under  2076.25  2073.00 ...would target  2071.25  2068.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Thursday was the session that Wednesday tried to be. Gapping up and extending higher intraday helped to reject the one-day close under last week's low. There is no unfinished business below, so any strength above 1.0785 would be likely to extend intraday. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Not confirming Tuesday's breakout on Wednesday allowed Thursday's overnight and intraday rallies to probe above 1082.50 resistance. Closing higher Friday would all but confirm a bottom has formed. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday night's rally was retraced into Thursday's open, but then repeated intraday, to suggest that a bottom is forming. No new low is required. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping up through 154-10 resistance and extending higher to attack 155-00 is a breakout that still must be confirmed Friday by a second consecutive higher close. Otherwise, it will have served only to trap longs and then launch a new downleg. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Momentarily probing under Wednesday's low Thursday held the 40.00 area as had its previous attacks and tests. Its support is being chipped away and becoming vulnerable to breaking lower, so a recovery cannot afford to wait past Friday. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday's EIA report wasn't being greeted from a position of strength, but neither was it positioned as weak as could have been the case. Nevertheless, the session trended back down under 2.31. It's not a sell signal or a breakout, so any initial strength Friday would still be credible for extending higher.

WedEX triggered a passive bearish signal between Wednesday's highs having tested the 2082.50 prior highs, and Thursday's open hovering lower.Probes of fresh highs intraday are possible, much like Wednesday's night's rally to 2089.25. Probes of fresh highs are also likely to fail, again much like Wednesday's night's rally. And come Friday afternoon, actual downtrending would be likely. Counter-intuitively, Any potential for the signal to invert up would depend greatly on gapping open sharply, whether up or down. The flatter the open, the less potential to invert the passive bearish WedEX. Thursday left outstanding unfinished business below at the morning's 2072.00 bias-down signal. The session's pattern wasn't accumulative and never succeeded at breaking higher, despite repeated tries. Friday's open could make up for lost time, if the overnight action hasn't yet. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjhscj

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2087.50 2084.50 ...would target  2095.00  2092.00 Bias-down: under  2076.00 2073.00 ...would target  2071.00  2068.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, EXCEEDED BIAS-UP TARGET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.