Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap up to 2200.00 was 3 points under the overnight "new Globex trend extreme." That spread widened despite triggering bias-up, as the balance of the morning slid back down to Monday afternoon's 2192.00 lows. But the balance of the session trended back up to and through the opening range until the final minutes fulfilled the morning's 2202.50 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... Choppy but narrow ranging eventually pierced a fresh high at 2203.50, then reacted down to 2197.75. The 5-point slide is now trying to bounce back into the range. If, then... Probing overnight above Monday night's 2203.00 high doesn't qualify as retesting it intraday, so its attraction remains outstanding. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday. Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon's recovery gained traction, and the session confirmed Monday's breakout. None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving's seasonal bullishness arrives. Wednesday's econ calendar has plenty of catalysts, from the morning's high-profile and/or reliably influential reports, through the afternoon's FOMC Minutes. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2201.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Fresh post-open lows recover to narrowly avoid bias-down. The pre-open slide ultimately extended to greet the open at 2193.25. Bouncing up to 2197.00 was resolved down to 2192.00. That was yesterday morning's low, itself holding a test of Monday afternoon's lows. That was the opening 15 minutes of volatility -- down 8 points from the close and testing support. Any lower would have fallen over the edge, perhaps less in terms of price than in marginalizing buyers for the balance of the morning. But bouncing high enough for long enough invoked the grace period, and the 2195.25 bias-down signal avoided triggering. Exiting the grace period above the pre-10:15 2197.00 high was helpful confirmation. Crude Oil's reaction to its EIA report also helped extend up to 2199.25. An offsetting test of the 2204.25 bias-up signal is in-play. The signal has already been productive. So, 2204.25 will become "unfinished business above" if left outstanding. Having at least attacked support, flat-to-higher ranging is likely for the next three hours while awaiting the FOMC Minutes.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2203.50 2201.25 ...would target  2207.75 2205.50 Bias-down: under  2196.25  2194.00 ...would target 2192.00  2189.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rate hike clues about to be released. We've been discussing for almost two months how the market has adapted to the potential for a rate hike. Knee-jerk reactions not withstanding, price action following good and bad econ reports has suggested getting it behind us would be bullish. Of course the actual FOMC decision would trigger a dip. But the ultimate resolution would likelier be a strong rally as that bad news becomes history.

So, this afternoon's FOMC Minutes might trigger a knee-jerk reaction down if they reflect a willingness to raise rates. But that's largely anticipated, so a dip would likely be temporary.

A deeper drop could follow Minutes that suggest less hawkishness. And similar to a rate hike's knee-jerk reaction up, dovish language in the Minutes would likely first trigger a knee-jerk reaction up.

Some higher high remains likely at some point to satisfy this morning's 2204.25 objective. Exiting the bias environment under 2104.00 would delay that upside objective for another day. Don't forget that after the FOMC Minutes reactions, the only influence is volume quickly evaporating ahead of the holiday. Try to avoid getting caught in an illiquid market, or expecting sponsorship to break beyond a range.

HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY... The chaRTroom will be open with Globex through 1:00pm ET, which re-opens Thursday at 6:00pm. Attacking the afternoon's 2101.25 bias-up signal to within 1 tick had a chilling effect. Even the FOMC Minutes didn't shake price action loose from a 2-3 point range since the noon hour's exit. Hovering at session highs could have just as easily drifted to the session's lower-end. Sponsorship for a breakout is difficult to attract when everyone's running out the door. But halfway through the position-squaring window, price did start firming. It barely pierced 2202.25 and closed positive 1 point vs. Tuesday's cash session close. An offsetting test of Wednesday morning's 2204.25 bias-up signal had been put into play by holding a test of the bias-down signal. An intraday retest of Monday night's 2203.00 "new Globex trend extreme" is still required, regardless of having pierced it by 2 ticks Tuesday's night. The other "unfinished business above" is the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing above 2192.00. By the way, 2192.00 has been tested thoroughly as support. If tested again -- whether before or after testing 2220.00 above -- it's likely to be probed by a downleg instead of holding again. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2206.25 2204.25 ...would target  2211.50  2209.50 Bias-down: under  2200.75  2198.75 ...would target 2193.50  2191.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.