Real Time Day Trading Signals - 12-14-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's open gapped down to 2017.50, but ranged choppily and widely between 2011.00-2015.00 through the morning. Ultimately breaking lower into the noon hour to 2004.00 did react up to 2015.00 until the bias environment lapsing came within view. But that only reacted down yet again to 1998.50. Even that was extended down further to 1996.25 post-close. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open stopped 3 ticks short of touching Friday's 1996.25 post-close low. That was reversed immediately, and relentlessly, testing 2017,50 and 2019.50 into and out of Europe's opens. A quick 10-point drop was recovered back above Friday afternoon's 2015.00 high, but only momentarily. Soon it, too, was resolving down as Crude Oil broke under Friday's lows. Now fresh lows have been probed down to 1991.25. If, then... Was the initial overnight action a roadmap for the open, or a last gasp before a very weak session? The two paths higher had developed somewhat overnight. The first path would momentarily probe slightly lower lows before reacting up sharply from realizing no new selling sponsorship was being attracted. The second path up would gap up above Friday afternoon's 2015.00 high. The overnight rally apparently had expended too much energy too soon to maintain that bullish positioning. By the same token, the overnight rally created a lot of room to absorb another round of selling. And the open's dip was rather shallow, to begin with. The paths higher can still be followed, by repeating the overnight action. But not already rallying out of the open would isolate the recovery and leave the intraday vulnerable to extending down sharply. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1988.00 would be likely also to not recover the 1990.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1998.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1995.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Still testing both bias signals as the grace period begins. Actually, that scenario has since been resolved. This is a late bias-down environment. But even that signal is suspicious. The 2009.50 bias-up signal was tested at the open. Holding its test through 10:15 would have put into play and offsetting test of the 1995.50 bias-down signal. Except, the 1995.50 bias-down signal was being overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

1995.50's test was courtesy of a 13-point plunge. That was nothing. A 20-1/2 point surge probed fresh highs at 2014.00. It overlapped the 2009.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke its grace period, too.

Not unprecedented. Just too very rare to test both bias signals around 10:15.

The biggest move yet was the return to fresh lows at 1992.00, triggering late bias-down. Even that was made suspect by immediately bouncing to 2001.25. It has now reacted down back under the 1995.50 bias-down signal. This is another opportunity to prove sellers have no sponsorship under Friday's lows. Exiting the bias environment in positive territory would be least such indication. By the same token, exiting the bias environment in negative territory could be the catalyst that attracts much more durable selling pressures.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2011.50 2002.50 ...would target  2017.00  2008.00 Bias-down: under  1995.75  1986.75 ...would target 1990.25  1981.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Lowest calculable objective met, held, already well rewarded. Ultimately, this morning resolved down. Great effort was expended pre-open and post-open to avoid triggering sell signal or to recover from them. But the ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs triggered late bias-down. The 1990.25 bias-down target was met, as was the lowest calculable objective of 1983.50. In fact, the latter held and reacted up sharply, currently testing 2001.25. Yet, the series of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Trend reversals must recover not just one but two prior extremes. And this one is still only touching its second at 2001.25. It's the noon hour, which inherently makes the bounce suspicious. And it is struggling at the natural resistance of retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to the open's highs. Triggering the 2002.50 bias-up signal in an hour would launch an entirely credible recovery attempt. Resuming the decline could find sellers very well refueled.

Monday's open could have recovered Friday afternoon's last relative high at 2015.25 and reversed momentum up. That was 13 points above Friday's close, but it was probed several time, by 4 points at one point. Closing above 2015.25 would have at least signaled the decline ended, so that a bottom could form. A late break higher came within 3 points when it mattered. It was touched 3 minutes after that. Despite preventing the morning's slide from extending, buyers gained no traction for their effort. Monday's buyers. Gapping up Tuesday above a prior high like 2022.50 would signal new sponsorship had arrived, targeting 2040.00. But gapping down under Monday afternoon's 1997.00 low would form a "session-long decline, targeting nothing good. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyvvtb

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TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2026.25 2017.25 ...would target  2031.25  2022.50 Bias-down: under  2011.75  2003.00 ...would target 2006.75  1997.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.