Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 03-17-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday night's rally had already neutralized the attraction back to overbought RSIs at its 2387.50 intraday high. Lacking that upside attraction, opening at the 2384.00 bias-up signal was hindered from rallying. Its offsetting test of the 2376.00 bias-down signal was soon pierced under 2374.00. The afternoon pierced it, too. Both tests reacted up to test 2380.00. No unfinished business was left outstanding.. Overnight action's new info... That second reaction up to 2380.00 had developed through the futures close. A narrow 3-point range centered around 2378.50 broke lower 3 points in time to greet Europe's opens testing 2376.00. That has now been recovered back up to 2380.00. If, then... Trading out Thursday range-bound has created pent-up pressure that is likely to be released by gapping open Friday. Greeting the open without yet probing either end of that range would still be vulnerable to trending quickly post-open. If sponsorship still hasn't revealed itself through the open, then expiration will become highly unpredictable. At least, the morning. The afternoon still has a bullish WedEX influence pending, although that could be exercised by recovering from an intraday dip testing 2370.00 where Wednesday's FOMC news was greeted. Gapping up or quickly surging must still contend with resistance back to Thursday's 2384.00 open. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2381.75 would be likely to at least test the 2384.75 bias-up signal, but not necessarily by 10:15. Exiting the open under 2381.75 after touching it would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2373.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it is Friday it's time for Friday's Morning Market or not a lot going on overnight which is a little surprising versus the setup that we were left with yesterday afternoon just a sneak preview by the way for tomorrow Saturday review possibly this isn't disgusting the first raid bug closed but we do have potential for a pretty important signal today I'll discuss that momentarily yesterday's drop through the open originated from the bias up signal over there was a gap up and what could have been left outstanding Wednesdays over but are a size would have attracted price up instead there was already that downward momentum to contend with and 23/84 bars of signal being the open tried I just couldn't recover created some congestion that is highly likely to be retested at some point but not yesterday or at least it wasn't as price dip down quickly to the 2376 down signal the offsetting test tested it retested it chipping away that's holding somewhat accumulative traction below is a basically a usual complete replacement back to add fomc reaction that would have been the 23 7750 area and it's still outstanding it fires don't get it together here at the open we're probably headed there before they are probably headed there at some point and I would say that some point is this morning because there's a bullish FedEx that is pending to influence the afternoon so yesterday afternoon which twice held test of relevant support Allure Pryor High and here as well as I said earlier the offsetting tested by Stan signal but just couldn't get it going the outside the entrance to 2380 repeated here through the close to the Future 7878 2523 overnight 7625 to any relevant level then it might be an afternoon in the context of a bullish FedEx that would mean the afternoon to have essentially doomed to failure and likely to be recovered in tirely how cover those parameters as we get into the open door get to the Border alright so big in the middle the range regardless I just can't see taking any position in this range but really strict about 2380 would be compelling to get for the retest of the congestion congestion up to 2384 and then tomorrow recovery back to last Wednesday There's No expiration so extreme today the void closing avoid testing so that there is no extreme so that any follow-through Monday morning could be absorbed in Reverse in the Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning actually because active of that retest definitely that's influential just need to close under it we've got some higher highs overnight that are inhibiting that gold which Wednesday afternoon and already tested the 12:25 area or attacked it in reaction that forms see that Extended stays open to 12 basically 1233 1232 50th and Gabba easy clothes back under 12:25 to indicate that lower prayer house or not going to be tested today Health complete a bottom doesn't have to though that's the predictable set up silver kind of a similar setup if 1750 equates to the twelve Thirty to fifty for not closing above it and by the way now closing above it wood Target 1790 one bond without testing it's pulled back limit for this corrected bounce that had targeted 14820 so we can't discount the potential for that extending to the 150 area before resuming the decline crude oil farming hear it made it to an extra day without the Gap back to Tuesday's close the island at Tuesday's close or to find by Tuesday because without that vacuums back down so it does have some greater potential to extend higher now last Friday's open point on 9550 and the natural gas switch closed back under 295 I also Jordan initially favorable knee jerk reaction up on the or any questions please post them in the chart room and I will be back before the of course if we see anything and no later than 9:15 to update as to what price action is done we do have by the way at 10 a.m. two or three actually 3 they're all high profile two of them and consumers have a track record of influencing price action, which I'll describe in real-time.

No-bias means no morning rally. Pre-open probes above the 2380.75 overnight high came so late that their sponsorship was likely weak-handed. Maintaining either probe to produce a gap up, and then extending it, could have been credible. That didn't happen. The actual inflection point triggered under 2378.00.

Rallying this morning was likely to rally almost immediately, preferably gapping up. The alternative is likely down, but not necessarily aggressively. So, the late failed surge already had warned us that buyers would be marginalized this morning.

Separately, three oft the first hour's five 15-minute checkpoints have overlapped unchanged. This suggests a dry cleaners morning.

And now no-bias has signaled. Neither bias signal was touched, so no offsetting test of the other bias parameter is required. There's room to dip so long as the 2375.25 bias-down signal defines the timing window's lower-end. Could that dip include a visit to the 2370.50 area? Yes, while also requiring its recovery. Neither is a requirement, perhaps only as a temporary knee-jerk reaction to a headline before the bullish WedEX's influence this afternoon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2383.50 2380.00 ...would target  2389.25  2385.75 Bias-down: under  2377.50  2374.00 ...would target  2372.50  2369.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still ranging, with the expiration influence. Neither bias signal was touched in triggering no-bias this morning, and again this afternoon. Room down to this morning's 2375.25 bias-down signal was utilized, eventually down to 2373.75 as the bias environment began lapsing. But trending up into and out of the noon hour has touched 2380.00.

2380.00 is this afternoon's bias-up signal. It was touched well after having potential to trigger. So, like this morning's bias-down signal, it should define one extreme of this timing window.

Unlike this morning's extreme which reacted in the opposite direction, this afternoon's bias environment should break. That would be the likely influence of the bullish WedEX.

Breaking above 2380.00 after the bias environment begins lapsing would be free to extend higher into the close. Simply absorbing any downdraft would fulfill the WedEX, and still be capable of extending higher aggressively Monday morning.

PLEASE NOTE: If you're encountering difficulty viewing the blog posts, then you're probably not logged into the blog. Please alert me if you encounter any difficulty and need assistance. Friday afternoon's 9-tick probe above its 2380.00 bias-up signal was required to retest 2380.00 as support, if not also 2379.00. Both were fulfilled going into the final hour. But the bullish WedEX did not reassert itself. The reaction down extended, back to the morning's 2375.25 bias-down signal. And through it momentarily, touching a fresh low under 2373.00. The bullish WedEX had been fairly influential. Reversing the afternoon's uptrend didn't begin until the final hour, so the influence can't be dismissed entirely. A more aggressive bullish influence Monday morning remains likely. Nevertheless, no hold-long was considered, since Monday's open isn't prohibited from gapping down. WedEX influences post-open action only, so rallying would be more reliable at or after the open, instead of before it. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

This weekend's Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET. I'll send links early in the morning.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2383.50 2380.00 ...would target  2390.25  2386.75 Bias-down: under  2377.25  2373.75 ...would target 2371.50  2368.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.