VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Strategy - 7:37 AM
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Previously : An overnight break lower to 4023 was recovered on the way to a post-open attack on 4048. Its reversal down to 4022 through the noon hour was recovered to fresh highs at 4066 and 4074 on FOMC reactions. The on-again/off-again Pivot Reversal setup suddenly collapsed when Yellen's "no blanket insurance" comment triggered a plunge to 3966.
Overnight price points : Trending up through midnight and Europe's opens attacked the bias-up target to within 2 points at 4001, then reversed down sharply to 3977. Its reaction up to 3993 is trying resume.
Catalysts : Claims, New Home Sales, SNB rate decision.
Setups/Patterns : Pivot Reversal.
Their influences : Gapping down in a multi-session uptrend, and rejecting a fresh trend high to close back under the gap down's low, tends to extend down without delay -- The "no blanket" comment's reaction may have stolen that thunder.
Premise : Even if the "no blanket" comment's reaction did steal the Pivot Reversal setup's thunder, I'll anticipate a retest of yesterday's 3966 low until proved otherwise. And the low's retest will still have to prove it is holding, or even just its retest could be by a wide margin. Extending lower would next target the 3940 area, whose break would next target 3884-3888.
Alternative : Recovering 3998-3999 through the open could suggest the Pivot Reversal is inverting to be bullish, targeting 4033 which is essentially where yesterday's FOMC events were greeted.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Stock Market Opening Thoughts - 10:37 AM
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Previously : Trending up through midnight and Europe's opens attacked the bias-up target to within 2 points at 4001, correcting 61.8% of Yellen's "no blanket insurance" comment that had triggered Wed's plunge to 3966. Its sharp reversal down to 3977 reacted up 20 points.
New price points : A pre-open dip held the 3984 bias-up signal's support and trended back up through the open to the next higher target at 4018.
Catalysts : Claims, New Home Sales, SNB/BOE rate hikes, Yellen testifying at House.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP RENEWED.
Their influences : Exceeding the bias-up target already had put into play a 61.8% retrace of Wed's last Bear Flag at 4018.
Triggers/Tactics : The overnight 61.8% retrace of Yellen's headline reaction at 4001 was duplicated post-open, which suggested that extending any higher is now correcting/retracing the earlier FOMC event's legs. The first was met at 4018, and above 4021 would target 4031-4033.
Alternative : 4018 can be the corrective bounce's extreme. Back under 3996-3999 would start to target a retest of Yellen's headline reaction low down to 3963.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4038, targeting 4051.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4021, targeting 4006.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Stock Market Mid-Day Update - 1:36 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Trending up through midnight and Europe's opens attacked the bias-up target to within 2 points at 4001, correcting 61.8% of Yellen's "no blanket insurance" comment that had triggered Wed's plunge to 3966. Its sharp reversal down to 3977 reacted up 20 points. A pre-open dip to 3983 trended back up through the open.
New price points : Targets at 4018 and then 4033 were exceeded to attack 4040 at the A.M. bias window's high. Trending back down through the noon hour to 3994.
Catalysts : Claims, New Home Sales, SNB/BOE rate hikes, Yellen testifying at House.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Overbought RSIs.
Their influences : It's still a bias-down environment, and its target is being probed... Simultaneously overextended 1-min and 3-min RSIs at the 4039 high require an eventual retest.
Triggers/Tactics : 4033's test retraced to where Wed's FOMC events were greeted, a common attraction and influence. Reacting down since then could be defensive posturing ahead of Yellen reappearing today at 3:00 PM ET where she may reinforce yesterday's deposit insurance headline. A favorable reaction is likely so long as 3996-3999 defines the P.M. bias window lows, being tested now -- especially favorable back above 4018-4021.
Alternative : Back under 3996-3999 would start to target a retest of Yellen's Wed headline reaction low down to 3963.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Day Trading Market Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Today's price points : Trending up through midnight and Europe's opens to 4001 was consolidated widely until trending back up through the open. Initial corrective targets were exceeded to attack 4040 at the A.M. bias window's high. Trending back down through the afternoon retraced it all on the way down to test and retest 3949, reacting up to 3992-3995.
Catalysts : Claims, New Home Sales, SNB/BOE rate hikes, Yellen testifying at House.
Setups/Patterns : Overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Simultaneously overextended 1-min and 3-min RSIs at the 4039 high require an eventual retest.
Premise : Trending down relentlessly from the channel's upper-end to its lower-end tends to hold. But this 2-day reversal refueled itself with intraday rallies. The wild card is Friday Factors, which can exacerbate either a bounce off the channel's lower-end into the weekend, or else its break. Positively diverging RSIs at Thu's 3949 low offer an opportunity for the former. Otherwise, probing under 3940 would start to signal the latter, deeper drop underway.
Alternative : 4033's test retraced to where Wed's FOMC events were greeted, a common attraction and influence. Reacting down since then could be defensive posturing ahead of Yellen reappearing today at 3:00 PM ET where she may reinforce yesterday's deposit insurance headline. A favorable reaction is likely so long as 3996-3999 defines the P.M. bias window lows, being tested now -- especially favorable back above 4018-4021. Back under 3996-3999 would start to target a retest of Yellen's Wed headline reaction low down to 3963. .
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3998, targeting 4012.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3963, targeting 3948.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.