Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 04-05-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday morning's 2349.75 bias-down signal triggered cleanly. It never produced a fresh low, but neither was it invalidated. Efforts to invalidate it didn't fail for lack of proximity. The 10:30, 11:30 and noon bars each probed their relevant bounce limits. But each probe was also being overlapped at the relevant time. Overlapping disqualifies the attempt. So, the 2344.75 bias-down target is left outstanding as "unfinished business below," while Tuesday's close surged to fresh session highs at 2358.50. Overnight action's new info... Initially extending higher after Tuesday's close immediately attacked 2360.00. That quickly peaked, and soon retraced back down to attack yesterday's final hour lows at 2352.50. Consolidating there into and out of Europe's opens eventually bounced up to 2357.25. The bounce was retraced entirely, and is now recovered to a fresh high at 2357.50. If, then... Rejecting the relatively shallow overnight pullback and resuming yesterday's rally this morning will be difficult if delayed. Especially while there is now a new attraction below at 2344.75 in-play. Although neutralizing the attraction below would allow another recovery attempt to begin, the dip might also retest 2342.25. That lower attraction was neutralized already Monday, and unnecessary redundancy usually chips away at the retest instead of reinforcing it. This may seem self-evident. but extending higher this morning -- at least this afternoon without first dipping deeper -- may be the only way to avoid resuming the decline to deeper targets. The deeper targets begin with 2321.00, while the reward for rallying is 2369.00 and then new highs. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2353.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2350.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2353.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2358.50 bias-up signal. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it is Wednesday time for Wednesday's Morning Market or and not a lot going on with overnight that is which is not predictive but it does fit into a template based on where yes his mother left us yesterday's market of course gave us a biased and Signal Queen by Samsung Wonder 4975 that wasn't touched recovered until at the moment when it was too late and at 10:30 and that is to invalidate it and then going on to 11:30 higher standard it wasn't touched until the moment that it was too late what did create a little opportunity here by probing the open side that would have been validated it at 11:30 we have enough invalidated by is down another opportunity at noon to exceed it tried still couldn't get it done that was last opportunity doing that yesterday morning's by its down signal and so it's by stay on target at 4475 becomes unfinished business 4475 in the overnight low it's so unfinished business and that's fine and that's not fair and it's just that 4475 awfully close to 4225 that was already on that was already there is just no reason typically no reason to retest neutralizing already neutralized objective alessi intent is to break through it so the power is I know this sounds obvious the path higher is higher has higher is not the neutralized unfinished business below first but to extend hire without delay and that's were last night's actually comes into play because post close yesterday actually last minute action had gotten back up to 56 which was basically already tested that was the new towers High afternoon tested it and then turned it up into the Futures close and even hired of the Futures open it immediately back down anything yesterday's final so so far as the sun's coming up on the state's things up friction maybe even required already being around mode and extending through the open I would Target 2369 and even get through to 2369 probably at this late stage I could have held as resistance last week now if we tested probably create alright heads up consensus this morning a heads up as to where the analyst looking for employment situation report and then the market responds to it the market responds to the to the news it's so that's about an hour it is coming in to support or at least a yeah I don't know well on this I don't have any template tracking other than the template that says every single opportunity to reverse down is not only being ignored but holding its support to there is at this point this is the big yesterday's search to close it a new high at least in the prior to set up there was this can really go away cuz it wasn't actually broke but there is in this unlike the other cell signal setups that at least had some attraction about that standing there wasn't any such a trash man standing to be as a cab over to serve as a catalyst for yesterday's search and yet yesterday search and close in the new hi I've got to step back from them alright any questions please let me know and subscriber request a trade let's see if Monday pretty big gap up and search bike up at the open weave of course got a existing downtrend that is dangerously close to dangerously close to the next phase what's going on here after Mondays and Tuesdays and should prove to be just a smaller version of Spike up the proof will be in closing negative today that's very important to keep in open

Pre-open setup launches post-open surge. I had noted in the pre-open Market Tour that it might seem self-evident, but the path up is up. Sometimes, the path higher requires first resolving unfinished business below. Not today. As much as yesterday prevented invalidating its attraction below, price extended higher. A dip probably wouldn't have been absorbed. In fact, rallying into and out of the pre-open ADP report probed above both Tuesday AND Monday's highs. Greeting the open at 2363.00 was likely to extend higher without delay, if extending higher at all. Quickly rallying through the 2364.00 bias-up target extended relentlessly to the 2369.00 renewed bias-up target. And then through it to the doubly-renewed 2374.25 target, which was just probed by 3 ticks. Reacting down from 2374.25 would require a retest of the highs, as both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are simultaneously overbought. Exiting the bias environment above 2369.00 would suggest that the pullback from 2400.00 has ended, putting into play new highs. Hesitation, consolidation, or backing-and-filling ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Minutes release would be justified. It also wouldn't be surprising for any pause to be shallower than deep, if at all.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2375.25 2372.00 ...would target 2380.25  2377.00 Bias-down: under  2367.50 2364.25 ...would target  2361.50  2358.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FOMC reaction offers a correction. This morning's doubly-renewed bias-up target at 2374.25 was touched, pierced by 3 ticks at this morning's high. Its reaction down wasn't shallow after all, triggering a pattern that targeted 2365.00. Touching the target has reacted back up, recovering all but 1 tick of this morning's rally. That's a lot of optimism ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Minutes. It's also pessimistically short of actually touching the high. And now a pessimistic knee-jerk reaction to the news has attacked 2369.00 as support, which was this morning's renewed bias-up target. A little deeper pullback has room down to 2367.75 before starting to signal momentum actually reversing down. Meanwhile, the high requires a retest, probably up to 2377.00. Just closing above 2369.00 would all but ensure the next major objective in-play to probe new highs. Closing under 2369.00 would make the rally fragile, again.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tuesday night's test of the Adobe Connect meeting platform went very well. This is our top pick for replacing the current room software. CLICK HERE for a 3-minute video I made of tips to use it. Its login link is below... Wednesday afternoon's reaction down from the morning's rally to 2375.00 was deeper than necessary. It managed to trigger a sell signal and then touch its 2365.00 target. Having satisfied sellers, a complete recovery was likely, if not a fresh high. But the complete recovery still stopped 1 tick short of the high. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding. Reaction to the FOMC Minutes was only briefly pessimistic. Initially. Then eventually very bearish as the reaction down cascaded sharply lower. Plunge is more apt. Sellers gained traction through the final hour entry and proxy window both probing their prior timing window lows. Tuesday morning's 2346.50 low was probed.

There is still some potential for recovery. the probe under Tuesday morning's low held a test of its "unfinished business below" at 2344.75. And Wednesday's late structure allows gapping up to and through 2357.50 to reverse momentum up, even if only for the near-term.

But the drop's traction does suggest probing lower anyway. And testing 2369.00 intraday without closing above it makes its reaction vulnerable to probing last week's lows down to 2311.00. That would be another fresh low off of another lower high -- make or break between recovering to new highs, or rolling over the edge. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the ADOBE CONNECT chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2354.50 2351.00 ...would target  2360.75 2357.50 Bias-down: under  2348.00 2344.75 ...would target 2342.50  2339.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.