Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 04-07-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's initial rally attempt was likely to fail, at least to probe back under Wednesday's plunge lows. Attacking 2344.75 to within 1 tick sufficed, and allowed rallying into the afternoon bias environment. The 2364.50 bias-up target was attacked to within 3 points, and then reacted down 9 points. The afternoon ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report wasn't really paralyzed by anxiousness. That would have been bullish. Instead, repeatedly retracing higher highs back down to 2350.50 made fresh lows likely. A bounce into the 3:10-3:20 proxy window met its 2354.00 objective, but only fluctuated there into the close. Overnight action's new info... Fluctuating at 2354.00 became fluctuating around it, probing up to 2356.50. Then came the missile strikes in Syria, triggering a 19-point plunge to 2236.75. That's fresh lows for the week. The knee-jerk reaction up to 2349.50 eventually stabilized there. Surging after Europe's opens has extended to attack 2356.00, retracing every last tick of the missile-triggered plunge. If, then... Now we know why that last sell signal appeared yesterday afternoon. It's now being reported that "chatter" had begun already about the impending air strike. The reaction's plunge re-retested last week's lows. Isolating it to the overnight is still capable of launching a substantial rally -- targeting yesterday's 2364.50 unfinished business, Wednesday's 2375.00 overbought RSIs, and higher. Of course, the re-retest isn't an optimal bottom. Dismissing the redundancy to being only a headline reaction doesn't often dismiss the market's urge to play it out. "Good" news out overnight about Greece, and the Employment Situation report comes pre-open, two catalysts that could change the conversation to allow a recovery, at least opening above 2350.50 and preferably already above 2357.50. Otherwise, not rallying through the open and not holding yesterday afternoon's 2349.50 low would target 2321.00 and 2321.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.]

Post-open volatility holds unchanged, like the overnight action. The overnight plunge had been retraced entirely to its ~2356.00 origin well before the open. The Employment Situation report's reaction had a similar resolution. It was greeted at 2352.50, blipped-down to 2345.50, and then greeted the open back at 2352.50. As if to reward the dual recoveries' sponsorship, the open quickly surged up to the 2357.50 bias-up signal. But the reward was actually a trap. Its resistance held as was expected. And its reaction slid sharply to 2347.00. Ultimately, both bias signals held their tests. No-bias triggered, but no offsetting test of the other bias signal is in-play, because both have been tested. The balance of the bias environment has become very unreliable, especially being equidistant between its signals. Meanwhile, holding a test of the bias-down signal does go a long way to neutralizing sellers. Only to ensure recovering a morning break, and not far enough to ensure the same this afternoon. Vulnerability to a new downleg targeting 2311.00 can be overcome only by recovering 2357.50 through a relevant window.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2360.75 2357.50 ...would target  2367.00  2363.75 Bias-down: under  2352.25  2349.00 ...would target 2347.25  2344.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Will recovery back up to prior highs prove only a Pyrrhic victory? Greeting this afternoon's bias environment at 2356.00 triggered no-bias. Cleanly. Spiking up to 2360.75 at 1:30 doesn't change that. The 2357.50 bias-up signal was probed too late to invalidate the no-bias. In fact, the spike was retraced almost immediately by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, testing 2357.50 as support. And still testing 2357.50 as support. Trending above it would be "no-bias trending," doomed to failure, back down to the 2357.50 bias-up signal, if not also the 2355.25 1:20 print, and possibly lower. Potentially much lower. Remember how not recovering 2357.50 through a relevant timing window keeps the afternoon vulnerable to capitulating into the weekend? Well, probing above 2357.50 inappropriately increases that vulnerability. Which all sounds pretty ominous. Because it can be... if triggered. A probe under last week's 2317.75 test of would be in-play. Meanwhile, don't discount the power of failing to trigger the trend's bias signal Friday morning. The burden of proof here is definitely on sellers.

SPECIAL NOTE: IF YOU HAVEN'T YET, PLEASE TEST THE ADOBE CHARTROOM SOFTWARE FRIDAY NIGHT. Last-minute assistance won't be available before the Saturday Review. I'll have it available Friday night here. Thank you!

That was an impressive recovery overnight from Thursday night's missile attack. Too bad. If the recovery couldn't exceed its origin's prior resistance (i.e. 2357.50), then it would have been better served by leaving something on the table to attract strong-handed intraday buyers. The same applies to the afternoon's surge. If not recovering 2357.50 in time to trigger its bias-up, then probing it later only reflected weak-handed sponsorship. As a corollary, the same applies to the balance of the afternoon bias environment, which wasted even more buying pressure just to hover above 2357.50. Breaking down 6 points under it to 2351.50 into the close reflected weak hands getting flat before the weekend. That late drop came too late, itself, to be predictive. So long as the pattern remains under 2357.50 through relevant timing windows, the pattern remains vulnerable to capitulation. Strong-handed sellers may have launched such a drop already Friday, if not for the overnight plunge attracting weak-handed sellers ripe to be squeezed. We should know one way, or the other, at Monday's open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2360.25  2357.00 ...would target  2365.25  2362.25 Bias-down: under  2353.25  2350.25 ...would target 2348.00  2344.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.