Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 06-07-2016

fProper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Firming out of the weekend made it clear there was no excuse to further delay not only probing fresh highs, but trending higher. The morning's 9-point surge to 2109.00 Completely retracing it in reaction to Yellen's comments was nevertheless recovered by a 13-point surge testing 2112.00. Fulfilling the morning's "unfinished business above" let the last 60-90 minutes drift back to 2107.25 into the close. Overnight action's new info... The late-afternoon pullback limit of 2107.25 had held its touch pre-close, allowing a deeper dip overnight that could avoid gaining traction. But only 1 point lower was probed before firming back toward Monday's highs. Europe's opens triggered a surge to fresh highs that extended to touch 2116.00. Its reaction down has touched 2113.00. If, then... The lower-end of the rally's next higher objective at 2116.00-2119.00 was touched. It wasn't put into play by closing above its last objective, so it is more vulnerable to rejection upon being tested intraday. Especially early, if its test reverses back under yesterday's ~2112.00 high through the open, which could put sellers in control of the morning. Otherwise, maintaining a gap up would keep alive the entirety of the 2116.00-2119.00 objective, and potentially 2125.25. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2113.00 would be likelier to trigger the 2111.50 bias-up signal at 10:15, and under 2109.00 would be less likely.

Bias-up triggers, but not in a supportive context. Post-open action has trended up. Gradually, if not painstakingly, but up. Bias-up triggered. And it has extended several points already to 2115.50. So, why is this bearish? Context.

Yesterday's rally didn't gain traction for its effort. So, resuming the rally this morning required gapping up above yesterday's 2112.25 high. But today's entire first half-hour fluctuated at or under 2112.25 before extending higher.

The late start doesn't preclude trying to extend the rally this morning. It just makes it vulnerable to reversal. Without recovery.

This doesn't detract from the very valid bias-up signal that triggered above 2111.50. A fresh post-10:15 high just printed, making the 2117.00 bias-up target likely to be met sooner rather than later. And its test could visit 2119.00, too. Counter-intuitively, a bullish template would find an excuse to dip. Leaving "unfinished business above" is a safety tether that can guide a later recovery by strong-handed sponsorship. Otherwise, already satisfying upside attractions would more likely start a topping process.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2118.75 2117.25 ...would target  2123.75  2122.25 Bias-down: under  2112.50  2110.75 ...would target 2104.50  2103.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Weak base, premature rally, targets met, noN-bias. What's the hold up? Complexity associated with last night's 2116.25 high required its intraday retest, which is done often the same day. It was met this morning as the bias environment began lapsing. Also met is this morning's 2117.00 bias-up target. Its test has room for noise up to 2119.00, and a higher objective would be in-play at 2125.25. The 1:20-1:30 bias timing window didn't confirm momentum remains intact, since its 2017.25 bias-up signal was still being tested to trigger noN-bias. So, two influences are competing against each other. Nothing will alter that this morning's rally originated from a weak foundation. Meanwhile, the post-open uptrend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Upside momentum can't afford to lapse after having neutralized upside attractions, because its first stumble could be its last.

Not bullish. The rally's next higher objective at  2110.75 was tested Monday but held through the close. That prevented putting into play the next higher objective at 2116.00-2119.00. Tuesday's close at or under 2110.75 marked the second consecutive session to hold its test. Also not bullish. Extending higher this morning wasn't likely because yesterday's rally gained no traction. Not a solid base for probing into the next higher objective's 2116.00-2119.00 range. And  2110.75 once again held through the close. Once again, no higher objective was put into play, AFTER fulfilling more upside objectives. Becoming bearish. The long, long, long-standing objective to retest last Fall's SPX 2013.50 high -- which equates currently to 2016.00 -- was neutralized. That was also the overnight "new Globex trend extreme" and it was neutralized quickly the same day. Satisfying buying pressure as fast as it forms doesn't attract new sponsorship. Reversing this sort of a setup can unfold quickly, so beware. Not already reversing down sharply Tuesday makes me suspect that a Wreversal Wednesday lies ahead. But only closing above 2119.00 would begin to neutralize the bearish factors listed above. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2116.25 2114.75 ...would target  2121.75  2120.25 Bias-down: under  2108.00  2106.50 ...would target 2103.00  2101.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.