Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 06-12-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Having failed yet another probe above a prior high, Thursday afternoon's decline gained traction, and the evening's Globex open gapped down on Britain's election results. Nothing that Friday's open couldn't overcome by extending above its prior high. It didn't. But gapping up TO its prior high extended higher anyway, to new highs touching 2443.50 resistance. This only angered the traction gods, and the reaction down accelerated as the morning's bias environment began lapsing. Friday Factors leveraged the reversal into a collapse that touched 2412.50 through the afternoon bias environment lapsing. Bouncing 17 points closed back above the past week's lows. Overnight action's new info... No further recovery has been attempted since Friday's close. Price has instead retraced almost 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Friday's final hour rally. The gradual slope has allowed 3-minute RSI to avoid reaching oversold at the current lows testing 2420.00, leaving only 1-minute to diverge positively. An inverted Head & Shoulders has formed. If, then... Friday's low recovered from touching what had been the rally's prior upside target at 2412.50 (had been 2415.00 basis Jun) and its room for noise at 2422.00. The close also recovered back above the prior range's lows, essentially 2422.00 and 2425.00. This would have been almost an automatic buy signal if not for the weekend lapse. But it still mitigates the traction sellers gained again during Friday afternoon's decline. Meanwhile, single-minded relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to reversing direction immediately at the open, if at all. So, not yet rallying out of the open would likely be attracted lower to retest Friday's low before the next opportunity to bottom. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2420.25 would be likely to trigger the 2422.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Monday Monday second week of June sorta and waiting for another shoe to drop waiting for another shoe to drop that over the weekend time heals all wounds it also makes victories fade so even though Fridays Bounce from its collapse managed to recover back above the weeks prior to lose the lower end of the rain somewhat of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern here if you can see that it's not because an inverted Head and Shoulders Head and Shoulders actually has to develop in a trend inverted would mean in the context of a downtrend which this was not so still somewhat similar calculations can be taken from it different meanings though but anyway back above the lower end of that range it's actually it's pivotal low both tested 2415 would have been the Rally's original Target basis June and so just a little bit lower like 2412 50 recovered if the low-power test with a little all recovered through the clothes all recovered through the clothes which intro week would have been almost an automatic by no but again over the weekend or as so much time of equidity elapses that Victory fades in fact it's just been one way is off immediately following open opening levels further stream through a Roman time failing that lowers again the only thing that the void Thursday night 424 that was tested overnight that did reverse down intraday but it's always nicer or at least cleaner because it's more common to test those or to have turns sentiment turns intraday so that mitigates the probe under what would otherwise be a cell signal 153 29 if 150 329 breaks anyway its objective is pretty clearly defined a 15222 meanwhile though so long as 153 29 holds the support another bounce back to the highs is possible not really a good by signal on that not really good by signal for the risk-reward it's not a matter of defining the risk or where the risk kick back and that's clothes back on 153 29 it's at there's not really a good inflection point in here to get us back up but if I had to pick one would be about 150 for 50 or a half 16 pics this is less than that but I want to see some clearance of it crude oil a little firmer overnight right above the inflection point this break lower Wednesday wasn't confirmed Thursday Thursday Pro blower it did leave at sending a gap under Thursday's low that has yet to be retested intraday so someone suspicious to already be overnight but there's no requirement for gas.

Pre-open bounce resolves to fresh lows. Bias-down triggered under 2422.25. Whether or not still being overlapped within moments of the 3-minute timing window around 10:15, the signal wasn't invalidated at 10:30. The 2415.50 bias-down target is in-play. Even with filling the gap back to Friday's 2428.00 close to within 1 tick, post-open action has developed exclusively in negative territory. Before triggering bias-down, post-open action had probed the overnight low down to 2416.75.

Gap filled above, probe overnight lows, trigger bias-down, exclusively negative territory. None of which has prevented bouncing back up to 2425.25.

Just a detour? But the bias-down signal has one more chance to be invalidated. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30-noon back above this morning's 2431.00 bias-up signal would invalidate the bias-down target. Otherwise, back under 2421.75 would resume the decline. The 2415.50 bias-down target's test would likely include neutralizing oversold RSIs at Friday's 2412.50 low.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2429.75 2427.25 ...would target  2435.50  2433.00 Bias-down: under  2422.50  2420.00 ...would target 2417.00  2414.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still fluctuating in negative territory. This morning's bias-down bounce extended to 2426.00 before peaking, almost 4 points above the bias-down signal. Reversing down into and through the noon hour retested 2418.00 support, still off the morning's 2416.75 low and its 2415.50 bias-down target. the noon hour's exit bounced 4 points into the afternoon bias environment's entry. That's 2422.25 again. But this afternoon's bias-down signal is 2420.00. And it didn't trigger. So, the market is stuck between several rocks above and several hard places below.

The most bearish scenario would remain proximate to the 2420.00 bias-down signal, then break lower when the bias environment begins lapsing. At least a retest of Friday's 2412.50 low would be in-play, potentially down to 2496.00.

The most bullish scenario would ignore this afternoon's 2420.00 bias-down signal, which should define the bias environment's lower-end. Probing under it anyway would be "no-bias trending" that requires being recovered. Probing under it deeply enough to fulfill "unfinished business below" at this morning's 2415.50 bias-down target would neutralize its attraction. The recovery requirement would do the rest.

An alternative bullish scenario would exit the bias environment rallying back above 2425.00 and higher. At least exit the bias environment above 2423.75, preferably above 2427.25. The recovery template loses that scenario if 2418.00 is retested as support.

Don't confuse narrow ranging with stability. Not that Monday's range was narrow. But it developed entirely within Friday afternoon's range, without touching either end of it. The mood is anxious, with the market afraid to step on its own shadow(s). That often produces a false break in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Breaking lower first would help to form a bottom that launches a probe of new highs. Assuming the low's retest were to hold, which at this point would still be likely -- preferably after neutralizing Monday's "unfinished business below" at 2415.50. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday's open and Friday's close in the 2428.00 area would be credible for extending higher. Otherwise, bouncing first would not be assured of retesting the highs before reversing back down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2431.75 2429.25 ...would target  2437.25  2434.75 Bias-down: under  2424.00  2421.50 ...would target 2418.00  2415.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.