Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 06-18-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Despite an overnight rally, despite gapping up, and despite triggering bias-up, Wednesday morning ranged sideways, supported by its 2090.75 bias-up signal. That launched a decline which expended a lot of selling pressure during the weak-handed noon hour window, touching the afternoon''s 2080.00 bias-down signal''s support. So, optimistic buyers had been retrained and then weak-handed buyers had been expended. The afternoon''s FOMC statement easily surged to fresh highs at 2098.50, dipping into the close back down to 2091.25.

Overnight action''s new info...
A late sell signal had triggered under 2093.00, targeting 2085.00 or 2082.00. Both were met. In fact, 2082.00 was touched by a blip-down that spiked back up into a rally back to 2093.00. Its reaction was recovered back up to 2096.50, which is reacting back down now to 2093.00.

If, then...
Yesterday''s pre-open and post-open optimism had only one bullish effect -- it allowed a lot of selling pressure to be expended without damaging the chart. Yesterday''s FOMC reaction seems to have had that reaction, too. But that may depend on restraining optimism before the open. Gapping up would be vulnerable to repeating yesterday''s pattern of reacting down deeply. Yesterday afternoon''s 2098.50 high printed too late to form a reliable "session-long rally" setup, but it would be credible. Just getting through 2100.00 can make the difference between pointing to new highs, or else retesting yesterday''s lows.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2096.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2095.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Post-open surge extends through air pocket.

Opening at 2097.00-2098.50 surged up to 2102.75, before dipping to 2100.00. That was the lower-end of an air pocket we began discussing yesterday afternoon, which the FOMC reaction stopped short of touching.

It compensated for its delay.

A deeper dip to 2098.25 would have been optimal. But reacting down to 2100.00 launched another surge to 2105.75. Its reaction down held its 2103.50 pullback limit to launch yet another surge to 2109.00.

2111.00 was just touched, taking 1-minute and 3-mijnute RSIs overbought again to protect against a reaction down from gaining traction. But back under 2108.00 could still dip to 2103.50 or 2101.00 without reversing the trend down.

A couple of notes:

First, gapping up today above yesterday afternoon''s high rejected the dip into yesterday''s close. Yesterday afternoon''s high printed after the bias environment began lapsing, and a little earlier would have allowed today''s gap up to form a session-long rally. Nevertheless, we''re going to compare today''s price action to the session-long rally template. It would expect only each timing window to probe above the prior timing window''s high, with one exception -- usually the noon hour.

Second, gapping up today above yesterday afternoon''s high also served by proxy to update WedEX to late-active bullish. Timely active would be more reliable, but the template for an upward bias Friday afternoon and Monday morning will be applied.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2124.50
2116.25
...would target 2130.25
2122.00
Bias-down: under 2117.75
2109.50
...would target 2112.50
2104.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar SepContract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the outstanding requirement for a third higher close Wednesday helped to trigger an Ascending Triangle pattern that had formed. Extending higher Thursday tried confirming Wednesday''s breakout with a second consecutive higher close, which would require another eventual third higher close. Regardless of the confirmation, just having gapped up Thursday above all prior highs does undermine an immediate reversal attempt.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While awaiting a break under the 1175.00 sell signal, two big bounces held their maximum limits. But Wednesday''s post-close surge in reaction to the FOMC statement extended sharply higher overnight to test 1999.00-1204.00 where the early-Jun surge peaked. This retest may be as temporary, and back under 1197.00 would reverse momentum down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting higher Wednesday to the FOMC statement extended higher overnight to test the upper-end of the 16.15-16.35 resistance range. Reacting down sharply to the range''s lower-end can''t afford to close any lower, or else new lows would be in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Wednesday from only attacking it 149-16 pullback objective had undermined the recovery attempt. Extending the bounce overnight to 151-29 still reversed down Thursday to thoroughly test 149-16 by another quarter-point. Closing back above 150-10 would resume the rally.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from Jul to Aug which is at a 40-cent premium] A failed overnight rally had tested the 61.20 buy signal. Bouncing into Thursday''s open spent the session ranging narrowly flat-to-higher around 60.70 resistance. There is no new setup to initially target 63.55.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength above prior lows and having probed fresh highs. The knee-jerk reaction from 2.83 support up to 2.88 reacted down anyway to test 2.77 support. Back above 2.83 would signal the rally resuming.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2124.50
2116.25
...would target 2130.00
2122.00
Bias-down: under 2117.50
2109.50
...would target 2112.50
2104.25
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.