Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 11-02-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Rejecting the overnight probe above 2124.25-2125.00 was likely to launch a downleg back to the prior low. But Tuesday's plunge from its 2125.00 open was much more productive than that. The morning's 2111.26 bias-down target was fulfilled, along with the prior low's retest objective at 2105.00, and the long outstanding 2095.00 objective. The latter was probed down to support at 2091.00 where a bounce to some degree was likely -- it eventually attacked 2109.00. A hold-long was indicated at the close, with a pullback limit of 2104.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low, along with the next lower objective at 2182.00. Overnight action's new info... The rally never touched 2109.00, let alone exceeded it. The 2104.00 pullback limit was tested almost immediately. The drop extended relentlessly until touching 2095.00 -- and this morning's 2094.75 bias-down signal. Choppy ranging gradually firmed, and now has surged, testing 2104.00 as resistance If, then... Not dipping back under 2104.00 would have enabled Tuesday's hold-long.to reach 2111.25, then the 2115.00 and 2121.25-2122.00 areas. They could still be met, if today's open were to reject the overnight probe under 2104.00 as yesterday's open rejected its overnight probe above 2125.00. Otherwise, the overnight low's retest down to oversold RSIs at yesterday's 2091.00 low would be likely. So would an extension down to 2082.00, with room for noise down to 2077.50. Trending or any aggressive move would become more difficult as the afternoon's FOMC statement nears. Anxiousness ahead of its likely hawkish statement, or in reaction, could be followed by a relief rally for having the event become history.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2100.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2111.25 would be likely to trigger the 2109.50 bias-up signal.

Opening dip recovered in time, attacked too late. The open's dip to 2099.50 was also a test of the 2100.50 bias-down signal. Its reaction probed above overnight highs to 2106.50. Triggering no-bias after holding the bias-down signal's test through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2109.50 bias-up signal. A pullback into 10:30's EIA announcement became a plunge as the announcement triggered Crude Oil dropping further. The 10:30 bar probed under the bias-down signal, and under the opening low. But it also overlapped the bias-down signal, and didn't qualify for invalidating no-bias. So, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal remains the likely resolution after the current dip is done. And it could be done after testing only 2093.50, not necessarily testing yesterday's 2091.00 low required by its oversold RSIs. Back above 2101.25 would signal the late plunge had ended already. A very aggressive move to fresh highs would be likely. Otherwise, a fresh low under 2097.00 would target 2093.50 and potentially also probe under 2091.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.75 2103.75 ...would target  2115.50  2109.50 Bias-down: under  2199.50  2093.50 ...would target  2094.00  2088.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open reversal down hasn't recovered, with FOMC looming. This morning's 2100.50 bias-down signal held its test to signal no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2109.50 bias-up signal. Attacking it to 2106.50 does not satisfy it. It could have been rejected by breaking under 2100.50 by 10:30, but it was still being overlapped. Probed, but overlapped. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2094.75 bias-down target could have invalidated it, too. But despite the bias environment developing under the opening range, it didn't trend down to the bias-down target, let alone break it. A test of this morning's 2109.50 bias-up signal has become "unfinished business above" that requires eventual test. Meanwhile, an opportunity to isolate the bias environment's dip was not exploited. Exiting the noon hour and entering the afternoon's bias environment above a prior high like 2102.50 may yet trap shorts. Otherwise, fresh lows at 2093.50 are likely, and a retest of yesterday's 2091.00 low would likely break lower to 2082.00 or deeper. The FOMC policy statement is a wild card. A negative reaction is likely since pessimism hasn't been fulfilled or rejected -- price simply remains depressed. The statement isn't likely to raise rates, but it is likely to speak in hawkish tones. There's reason for a knee-jerk reaction down, and little reason not to recover it.

The ongoing series of lower intraday lows persisted Wednesday, with yet another lower close, as well. Keeping the decline intact had been maintained by oversold RSIs at Tuesday's 2091.00 low. Oversold RSIs accompanied  Wednesday's 2087.75 low -- which formed when retesting Tuesday's low and fulfilling Wednesday's 2088.00 bias-down target. It's a circle of life that keeps the decline intact. And the decline is targeting 2082.00 with room down to 2077.50. Testing the lower target(s) Thursday before Friday's payrolls would allow a reaction up to greet the report in a position of strength. Not yet resolving the lower attraction could force a resolution down. The most bullish scenario might be to gap up Thursday and ignore the lower attractions altogether. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.50 2095.50 ...would target  2107.00  2101.25 Bias-down: under  2093.75  2088.00 ...would target  2088.00  2082.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.