Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 11-27-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's pre-Thanksgiving session followed tradition by almost literally dying on the vine. Volume and participation evaporated, leaving no sponsorship for trending away from 2088.00. The only thing at all surprising was the limited trending attempt that morning down to 2083.25. Overnight action's new info... The window for a correction having ended, the rally was free to resume. Seemingly, it did so Wednesday night. Price had firmed by ranging flat-to-higher. But Europe's opens Thursday triggered a 10-point rally to test 2098.00. Thursday night's Globex session retraced that surge, to 2083.25 into Europe's opens. A bounce is ranging narrowly between 2088.00-2091.00. If, then... If the rally is ready to resume, then Wednesday night's action into Thursday should be resumed today. But the open should behave as if Wednesday night's attempt was premature, and not delay repeating it. Light volume traditionally allows price to drift in one direction or the other into the early 1:00pm ET close. Although not as likely, that could still be down if the bias-down were to trigger. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2084.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2090.00 bias-up signal.

There are two paths to higher prices. The premise was that this morning wouldn't trend down, and that the rally can resume. Influences included light volume and participation, and greeting the open from a bounce back into the 2088.00-2091.00 range instead of above or below it That outlook had two possible templates -- either to trigger bias-up, or to hold a test of the bias-down signal which would put into play an attraction back up to the bias-up signal. It wasn't the former. The open dipped under 2088.00 to test this morning's 2084.50 bias-down signal down to 2081.50. The grace period was invoked, but recovering to 2087.00 helped to trigger a late no-bias. So, it might be the latter. Late bias signals are less reliable than timely signals. But thinner participation hasn't changed. It's only gotten more so. If the opening crowd couldn't break the range's lower-end, post-open sponsorship is less likely. Price can rise without sponsorship, simply for gravitating back up to the bias-up signal's resistance. None of which dictates remaining long regardless. But the burden of proof is on sellers, which requires pullbacks to hold 2084.50.

Bias objective met. Seasonal objective in-play. With two path higher, the market took the one more difficult. Testing this morning's 2084.50 bias-down signal by 3 points, and invoking the grace period, ultimately held. Its offsetting test of the 2090.00 bias-up signal was met before the bias environment began lapsing. It has been probed by 5 ticks. Historically, trending tends to persist into the post-Thanksgiving close. Not aggressively, but simply gravitating in its prevailing direction. So, there is potential for extending the recovery through 2091.00 to 2094.00 or higher. But extending higher isn't required. Reacting back down isn't likely, but it's possible. I'll continue tracking pullback limits in the chaRTroom. There is no afternoon bias parameter to apply today.

The vulnerability to trending through post-Thanksgiving's close, if not the likelihood, is based on there being no counter-trend sponsorship to reverse the prevailing trend. There wasn't much of a prevailing trend, only a test of the bias-down signal that fulfilled its offsetting test of the bias-up signal. That recovery wasn't extended high enough to actually be considered trending. Nevertheless, no counter-trend sponsorship emerged, as the session ended by hovering at its highs. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsrbmp

REMINDER: No Saturday Review this weekend... I'll be sending you a description of the new chaRTroom software which we'll start adopting next week. Access to the other platforms will phase out by week's end. Their single replacement allows: o All devices access o 24-hour connectivity o Cloaked attendance o Public chat o MP4 recording (iPad friendly) o WinXP compatible ...Thanks to all who have been providing me their feedback. More info to follow.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2096.50 2094.00 ...would target  2104.00  2101.75 Bias-down: under  2086.75  2084.50 ...would target 2081.50  2079.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.