Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 11-30-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's bounce came to within 1 point of neutralizing "unfinished business above" at 2210.50. Then the afternoon bias environment began lapsing, and proximity didn't matter. The unfinished business was left outstanding. Reversing down sharply to 2201.25 probed back within the morning's "lower prior highs." The late low stopped just several ticks optimistically short of natural support at unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00. Firming into the close held 2203.75, which had been the morning's bias-up signal. Overnight action's new info... Remnants of Tuesday's late slide were barely visible after the close. A slightly lower low only touched 2200.75, and only eventually. It was beneficial to still be trading in sympathy with Crude Oil, which required an almost immediate rally, and has produced it. Already retracing up to 2205.50 into Europe's opens, the recovery has extended to probe yesterday's high up to 2210.25. If, then... A similar setup to yesterday's open is trying to resolve today in the bullish way that yesterday's had failed. Both prior sessions' late drops closed back under relevant support. In both setups, gapping up above the prior afternoon's highs was the only path to marginalizing sellers for the day. Yesterday's open was greeted by a failed overnight rally, and its intraday rally failed, too. Last night's rally may yet fail by this morning's open, but currently it's probing fresh highs. Extending higher this morning would be likely at least to attack 2220.00 intraday. Not marginalizing buyers at the open could resume the decline with a vengeance. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2208.50 would be likely to trigger the 2207.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2205.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Divergent post-open actions. Gapping up above prior highs was maintained at least halfway thorough the opening 15 minutes of volatility to establish an anchor. An anchor provides a recovery in case of a corrective dip. We'll see. Maintaining the gap up above the prior afternoon's high -- after having trended down into the close -- formed a "session-long rally" setup. But it is at risk of inverting down, so that each timing window probes the prior timing window's low, instead of probing the prior timing window's high. That risk of inverting down comes because bias-up didn't trigger. The 2207.75 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to invoke the grace period. And extending down to 2204.00 didn't recover in time to trigger late. Its reaction up is testing 2207.75 now, but it's too late to trigger. Instead, an offsetting test of the 2199.75 bias-down signal is in-play. An offsetting test of the 2192.75 bias-down target is almost in-play, too. It would be in-play officially had the 2113.25 bias-up target been touched. It was probed by 2 ticks pre-open, and attacked by 1 tick post-open, but not touched when its rejection would matter. Unofficially, be aware of the potential for extending down to 2192.75, anyway -- which would likely also visit 2187.50.

Meanwhile, I'm concerned that this morning's timing window influence is 10 minutes delayed. Perhaps the onslaught of OPEC headlines has concussed the market. Price action 10 minutes following each of the 9:45, 10:15 and 10:30 windows would better explain why the we're currently under yesterday's highs. Rallying this morning above 2208.75 would confirm it. The trend is otherwise down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2211.75 2210.50 ...would target  2216.50  2215.50 Bias-down: under  2202.50  2201.50 ...would target 2196.25  2195.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Only one attraction above, but plenty below. This morning's bias environment did not probe the opening range's high, but it probed the opening range's low. And now the noon hour has probed the bias environment's low. If the gap up were capable of forming a "session-long rally" setup, then it has inverted into a session-long decline. So, either this afternoon's bias environment or the final 60-90 minutes is likely to probe lower, too.

A test of this morning's 2199.75 bias-down signal was put into play for ultimately holding a test of the 2207.75 bias-up signal. It has become "unfinished business below."

An offsetting test of the 2192.75 bias-down target was not triggered, but only because the 2213.25 bias-up target was missed by a single tick post-open. It had been probed pre-open.

Even threatening 2192.75 would suggest that 2187.50 will be retested, too.

Meanwhile, the open's gap up above prior highs was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. It created an anchor that suggests the 2211.25 opening print will be retested, regardless of the interim dip. The only other unfinished business above continues to be the 2220.00 objective put into play by recovering 2192.00 last week.If somehow tested prior to neutralizing attractions below, it would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply, as has been the case with each other attraction above.

2199.75 was put into play Wednesday morning. The afternoon bias environment fulfilled it. RSIs diverged positively on its retest. Its probe under the prior low was isolated to the proxy window, which was exited above the 2202.00 prior high. that's all bullish enough to establish a low, which would be relevant if broken. It was broken. But it wasn't broken until coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. And that's not often a relevant break. So, there is potential for rejecting the late dip, but only by gapping up above the afternoon's 2208.00 high (forming a "session-long rally"). Otherwise, not rejecting Wednesday's late break would likely trend down Thursday morning. It's the third consecutive session ending on the brink of rolling over. The anchor that formed during Wednesday's open suggests any reaction down will be recovered. But not yet recovering at Thursday's open would next target 2187.50 below. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2207.50  2206.50 ...would target  2212.25  2211.25 Bias-down: under  2198.50  2197.50 ...would target  2193.00  2192.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.