Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 12-02-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Even just threatening to attack 2192.00 was likely also to visit 2187.50, which was the decline's minimum downside target. Thursday's open at Wednesday's late 2202.00 resistance did reverse down to probe fresh lows, extending through the session until touching 2187.50. A fresh low was probed briefly down to 2186.00. The late dip was isolated to the final hour, again suggesting the decline is by weak-handed sponsorship. A last-minute bounce targeting 2192.25 was met and held. Overnight action's new info... Fulfilling last-minute buying pressure had required the bounce to extend immediately, if at all. And it didn't. Slowly trending back down to 2187.50 became steeper at Europe's opens, dropping to fresh lows at 2184.25. Now a bounce is testing 2187.50 as resistance. If, then... Extending down any deeper after the open would likely also visit "lower prior highs" at 2181.00. Probing lower overnight doesn't yet mandate this lower objective. But probing lower overnight does open the door to a recovery setup other than gapping up. And that would be accomplished by isolating a post-open test of the 2184.25 overnight low, already rallying back above prior lows coming out of the open. Otherwise, holding 2181.00 or breaking under it will be vulnerable to Friday Factors that are influenced by the weekend's impending illiquidity. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered before an Employment Situation report.

REMINDER: I'm unavailable during today's last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review. The open was greeted nearly unchanged from yesterday's 2192.00 futures close. Post-open action was initially hesitant to trend either way, not until being halfway through -- exactly halfway through -- the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The timing could have been more abrupt to qualify as the characteristic a morning rally required. It certainly couldn't have been less abrupt. So, fresh highs got up to 2195.50 stopping short of the 2197.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 2197.00 through 10:30 could still invalidate that it wasn't recovered in time to trigger. Meanwhile, it should now define the morning's upper-end if tested. Neither recovery path was followed at the open, so a morning rally is likely to be only temporary. In fact, a reaction down is now testing 2191.75, whose break would start to signal that the post-open hesitation is exerting its influence. The 2187.50 bias-down signal should define the morning's lower-end, unless broken through 10:30. Retesting the overnight lows would likely extend deeper to also test 2181.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2198.50 2197.75 ...would target  2204.25  2203.50 Bias-down: under  2189.75  2189.00 ...would target 2183.50  2182.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

UPDATE: I'm unavailable during today's last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review. It seems my connectivity has already become limited, and only the Daily Spot will be updated. The 2191.75 sell signal held its test this morning. Probing it down to 2190.50 bounced back above 2194.00 to resume the morning rally. Room up to the 2197.00 bias-up signal was fully utilized. And despite the bias environment already lapsing when tested, its resistance held. The morning rally, and the morning, both have ended. And another sell signal triggered under 2192.75. Now this morning's 2187.50 bias-down signal no longer need hold as support. But it's trying. This afternoon's 2189.00 bias-down signal triggered, putting into play its 2182.75 bias-down target. But touching 2187.50 has bounced to test 2189.00 as resistance. The drop is likely to resume if the reversal isn't recovered as the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 (when I will no longer be in front of the screens). And the bias-down target is just interim support on the way down to 2181.00. Meanwhile, Gold (and Silver) and the Euro are threatening to bottom, if their earlier recoveries from this morning aren't derailed. Could be very interesting into the close... Have fun!