Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 01-03-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's decline didn't find an air pocket. But selling pressure was relentless, and traversed the entire 2230-handle, anyway. And it trended, in a series of lower lower lows and lower highs. Starting at the morning's 2248.00 bias-up signal, with its sights set 2230.00-2232.00, the target was met, even probed by more than 1 point. A bounce tested the target range's upper-end into and out of0 the cash session close up to 2237.25. No new objectives were created that weren't also met intraday. Overnight action's new info... Strong economic news from China and limited terrorist incidents over the holiday have combined to start off the new year strongly. Monday night's open gapped up above Friday afternoon's highs to 2241.00 and extended immediately to 2245.00. A 5-point pullback was recovered to fresh highs before midnight as the rally resumed into Europe's opens. Peaking at 2251.50 was pessimistically short of Friday's 2252.00-2253.00 pre-open highs. Resuming the rally again has extended to 2255.25, testing Wednesday morning's "lower prior highs." If, then... Attractions below at 2215.00 would have been in-play if today's open were anything weaker than a gap above Friday afternoon's 2239.00 high. Globex opened above it, extending far above it. Friday's late drop is rejected, along with the traction sellers had gained, and its momentum is reversed up. Extending higher through the open could form a "session-long rally" setup targeting new highs. That's not assured, as the open is currently indicated to test "higher prior lows," and not extending higher through the open would more likely resolve in backing-and-filling through the morning. Regardless, a gap back at Friday's 2236.50 close is now left outstanding below.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2249.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2245.25 bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2246.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal.

Rally's extension retraced, and reversed. Gapping up to 2252.00 wasn't immediately attractive. Blipping-down before probing higher still peaked 5 ticks short of the 2255.25 pre-open high. And even that was reversed down to a fresh low. But the fresh low stopped 1 tick short of even touching 2248.00.

Its break would have marginalized buyers -- instead, its attack dumped all available sellers. So, momentum reversed up. More than 11 points.

That probed "higher prior lows" above 2255.00 for the first time intraday. And 2257.50 was being tested. Both held, and both were rejected. A simple correction would target 2251.00, and it was quickly tested.

2251.00 was also quickly broken, and soon this morning's 2254.25 bias-up target was being tested down to 2244.00. It was too late for probing under 2248.00 to marginalize buyers. And too early. It's still being tested now, as the bias environment comes within view of lapsing. The open gapped up, and extending higher made it a productive gap up. Exiting the bias environment under the open's productive gap up is not bullish. Not unless another rally leg exits the noon hour back above the open. Oversold RSIs at the low still require a retest, but I would start giving that a benefit of the doubt back above 2248.00. Otherwise, nothing prevents filling the gap back down to Friday's 2236.50 close, or even resuming the decline next targeting 2215.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2252.25 2246.75 ...would target  2257.50  2252.00 Bias-down: under  2245.00  2239.50 ...would target 2239.50  2234.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning reversal has settled into a range. The reversal from 2259.50 ultimately touched this morning's 2239.50 bias-up signal as support. That was back when the bias environment started lapsing at 11:30. Its reaction up touched 2244.25 resistance, which reacted down to 2240.25 support. More than just support and resistance, these are buy and sell signals that would have extended 6 points if triggered. Neither was triggered, and the range persists. Now the afternoon bias environment has triggered no-bias. The 2240.25-2244.25 signals remain intact. Delaying a recovery in this pattern tends instead to extend the decline. Probing either way would be credible for extending, but fresh lows is likelier. Anyway, RSIs are oversold at this morning's low. An attempt at neutralizing it stopped optimistically short by 1 tick from even touching it. The gap back down to Friday's 2236.50 close can be filled, and if not held, then a deeper decline targeting 2215.00 can resume.

It shouldn't be surprising that 2240.50 essentially defines Tuesday's afternoon's low. Breaking under it on Friday had put into play a complete drop through the entire 2230-handle. A multitude of elements require that it break again -- not necessarily all the way back to Friday's lows, and not necessarily holding Friday's lows if tested. None of which prevented breaking higher during Tuesday's 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window. Sharply higher. Potential to 2252.25 was reached by the final bar. Price still sits there now. Neither sellers nor buyers had gained traction before the late surge, so gapping down under Tuesday afternoon's 2240.00 low could form a "session-long decline" setup. Any shallower opening dip could extend the recovery Wednesday morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2258.00  2253.50 ...would target  2263.00  2258.50 Bias-down: under  2250.00 2245.50 ...would target  2243.25  2238.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.