Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 01-18-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... It was a loooong time coming. Tuesday's open had isolated Friday's range, creating an objective to retest the 2257.50 overnight low. But the meat of the session only hovered choppily under Friday's 2266.25 low. Then the afternoon bias environment exit plunged from 2265.00 to fulfill the 2257.50 objective. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively, but that proved sufficient to trigger a 2260.25 buy signal. Potential for the setup to probe fresh session highs was only able to firm into the close and test 2263.00. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's late recovery soon extended higher, and relentlessly. Testing the plunge's 2265.00 origin produced a 3-point surge, probing 2 points above Friday's low. Already reacting down was accelerated by Europe's opens back down to 2265.00. Consolidating there has resolved down 2 points to touch yesterday's last-minute bounce high at 2263.00. If, then... Extending higher overnight wasn't required, and not likely enough to merit a hold-long. But it was the likely bullish resolution to the late-afternoon buy signal, and it was fulfilled. Probing back into Friday's range would be bullish for today, if maintained through the open. The current reaction down is threatening to isolate at least that part of the recovery to the overnight. The reward for rallying today is to also probe above Friday's 2273.50 high, and probably fulfill the outstanding requirement for a new trend high close. Otherwise, resuming Tuesday's drop would at least retest last Wednesday's 2255.00 low -- its break could point sharply lower.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2260.00 would be likely at least to test the 2256.00 bias-down signal.

Wide opening range triggers only no-bias. The overnight rally to 2268.50 had reacted down to 2263.00, where yesterday's late bounce had ended the day. The 2268.50 overnight high was retraced to within 1 tick. Despite being 2 points back above Friday's lows, the recovery failed again. Greeting the open 1 point under the 2266.00 bias-up signal slid quickly to 2258.25. The opening 15 minutes of volatility began lapsing back at the overnight reaction's 2263.00 low. Firming further eventually attacked the 2266.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick.But only after triggering no-bias. Not touching the bias-down signal post-open, no offsetting test of the 2256.00 bias-down signal is required. Touching the bias-down signal 1 minute prior to the open should be noted, regardless of the opens' slide already having expended a lot of selling pressure.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2272.25 2267.00 ...would target  2277.50  2272.50 Bias-down: under  2265.50  2260.50 ...would target  2260.50  2255.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another narrowing range. This morning's recovery had attacked the 2266.00 bias-up signal. It didn't trigger, but did define the window's upper-end. Its lower-end was a dip down to 2261.50. Several more bounces each have returned down to 2261.50. The interim bounces are lower and lower, forming a Descending Triangle. The pattern was free to break lower coming out of the noon hour. That window came and went, with 2261.50 holding as support. Beige Book is scheduled at the top of the hour. I can't attribute the hesitation to its impending release, since it hasn't been that influential for awhile. Anyway, the narrowing range began too early for it to be associated directly. Maybe it's the final hour's scheduled appearance by Fed chair Yellen. Finally releasing the Beige Book data could be enough to allow some reaction. But I would be concerned about the lack of volatility if the session ends with this range persisting.

Wednesday's frustratingly narrow 3-4 point range finally started breaking as the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window opened. And it wasn't only noise, as fresh post-open highs were probed up to 2267.25. The breakout's late timing and its shallow measurement undermine its credibility. But maintaining through the close suggests it's not a false breakout. Regardless, the proof of a false breakout, or not, will be similar to conditions established for the prior close. The bullish scenario is likely to be an overnight rally, gapping up to extend to new highs intraday targeting 2278.25. The alternative is likely to have stretched the rubber band, so that Thursday morning can snap back and trend down to fresh lows under 2248.50. WedEX did not form a setup. Its several inputs seldom all present, but a signal can be derived anyway. Its basis is required, which can be trending or intraday probing of a relevant prior high or low. That has not formed in this week's narrow range so far. Gapping open substantially on Thursday could qualify by proxy. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2274.50 2269.25 ...would target  2280.25  2275.25 Bias-down: under  2266.50  2261.50 ...would target 2261.75  2256.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.