Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-09-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday was the second consecutive morning to rally despite the prior session's rally not having gained traction. The consequence of that setup is failure, and once again all of the morning's gains were returned. Despite finally closing above the rally's objective (2110.75 Jun, 2102.00 Sep), the next higher thoroughly tested resistance held once again (2116.00-2119.00 Jun, 2107.00-2110.00 Sep). No higher objective was put into play, and "unfinished business below" was left outstanding at the morning's bias-down signal (2106.50 Jun, 2098.00 Sep) -- like a slow-leaking helium balloon that is now adding ballast. Overnight action's new info... Only trending down since yesterday's close, yesterday morning's low (2111.25, 2102.50 Sep) is being probed down to 2109.25 Jun, 2100.00 Sep). That's still a couple of points short of fulfilling yesterday's "unfinished business" at the prior night's low. If, then... [The front-month rolls forward at the open from Jun to Sep. Bias values have been updated on the blog and below.] While the last two morning rallies were doomed to failure, consequences have been limited to retracing only the gains. Typically, there is also punitive damage to the chart, reversing back under some prior lows -- even if only intraday. A more powerful upward undercurrent should have been obvious quickly if it were the cause of this current instance's different outcome. Each overnight dip under the intraday low wouldn't be appropriate. So the likelier scenario continues to be that the ultimate consequences are being pent-up into a larger topping pattern. All of which has yet to be triggered by sellers actually retaking control -- which could unfold quickly at this stage of the template. Not already trending down into the noon hour would make another rally leg likely into the weekend. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2100.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2121.50 2111.00 ...would target 2126.50 2116.00 Bias-down: under 2113.50 2103.00 ...would target 2107.25 2097.75

Weak open holds support. For now. Yesterday morning's no-bias environment had left outstanding the objective to test its bias-down signal. This morning's 2098.00 low just neutralized it.

That also fulfills this morning's bias-down target to within 1 tick. It was put into play by holding the 2103.00 bias-down signal through 10:15.

Now bouncing 4 points to 2102.25 confirms the area's influence. But it doesn't reverse momentum up. Still being a bias-down environment, the morning's upper-end should still be defined by the 2103.00 bias-down signal - even if its probe were to attack 2106.00. And bouncing during a bias-down environment is likely sponsored by weak hands, refueling sellers. Back under 2100.00 would signal the decline's momentum remains intact, and targeting lower lows down to the 2094.00 area.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2114.00 2104.00 ...would target  2119.00  2109.00 Bias-down: under  2106.50 2096.50 ...would target  2101.25  2091.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Thursday was owned by the tick. The single tick. The afternoon's 2104.00 bias-up signal held its grace period by a single tick. Its 2109.00 bias-up target becomes "unfinished business above." Meanwhile, buyers may have gained traction by exiting the bias environment 1 tick above the noon hour's high, and entering the final hour 1 tick above the bias environment's high. The session was otherwise pessimistic for gapping down, probing a prior low and spending the entire session in negative territory. But it was "ineffectual pessimism" since relevant lows held through the close. Friday Factors were relevant last week in exacerbating the gap down. They could be relevant this week, too. Resolving the unfinished business above at 2109.00 overnight can reverse back down before Friday's open. The quasi-traction could invert to trend down through the morning. Friday Factors can cut either way. Fresh highs could extend relentlessly into the close -- as the pattern remains vulnerable to the upside so long as relevant lows are held through the close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2119.50 2109.50 ...would target 2126.25  2116.25 Bias-down: under 2108.50  2098.50 ...would target 2103.25  2093.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.