Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-24-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Sharply higher overnight highs at 2102.00 were retraced through Thursday's open down to 2089.75. That was the morning's bias-up target, and touching it as support launched an up leg that fulfilled its 2099.50 target. Shallow ranging through the afternoon waited until the last half-hour before resolving up from 2098.00, rallying sharply again to fulfill its 2106.00 target. No traction was gained for the effort. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's late surge wasted no time extending even higher, already extending to 2113.25 before the Globex open, and just as quickly extending to 2119.50 after it. And that was the end of that. Results began arriving, quite different from the intraday and post-close optimism -- a narrow win for Remain that should have been wide, a win for Brexit that was wider than anticipated. The first drop was technical, bouncing from 2104.50. The next drop plunged to Thursday morning's 2089.75 low. One more plunge touched 2050.00. Its 40-point bounce back up to 2089.75 was reversed entirely, too, and kept reversing. Last week's ~2041.00 low was ignored on the way down to 2025.00, and then to limit-down at 1999.00. Now a bounce up to 2043.50 has retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to 2016.00. If, then... Long night. In some ways, it has seemed like a reunion. The above overnight re-cap lists so many levels that were so pivotal during the rally that is now being retraced. So, is this a correction? There's no "unfinished business above," since 2115.00 was met, by a singular non-complex probe which doesn't qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme." Is the trend reversing down into a bear market? Duplicating last night intraday would not be recovered for a very long time, and Friday Factors could facilitate that move. Remember that gapping from one end of a range to the other tends to react instead of extending, so this may be only the lower-end of a trading range. That principle certainly will be put to a test today, as the range's lower-end is being approached at 1993.50, with potential to 1980.00. Bouncing first to 1950.50-1955.50 would be too much optimism, too soon to be sustained.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels apply (the understatement of the year)..

Post-open rally refuels sellers. Rallying through the open became likely early enough to identify a 2038.25 buy signal. Its 2055.50 objective was met during the first half-hour. And then it was exceeded to attack 2065.00. Recovering 2055.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have signaled the overnight selling pressures were absorbed. Instead, this morning's bounce is more likely refueling sellers for a more substantial downleg. Overnight lows should be retested down to 1993.50. The question is when. Today is possible, but the morning bias environment should begin lapsing in decline. Late-afternoon is possible if the open's rally has only hovered through the afternoon bias environment. Otherwise, trending up further this afternoon could delay fresh lows until next week.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2065.25 2056.25 ...would target  2071.25 2062.25 Bias-down: under  2049.75  2040.75 ...would target 2044.00 2035.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Opening surge largely retraced. Few weeks have the action offered already by today's post-open range. Rallying 33 points off of the 2031.50 opening print. Reversing down 29 points through the noon hour's exit. Things can get noisy with ranges a small fraction of this size. This afternoon's 2040.75 bias-down signal was last touched 5 minutes before 1:20, triggering bias-down. It was soon probed up to 2045.25, but that reacted down to 2039.50. This is a bias-down environment. A bigger corrective bounce to 2049.00 can't be discounted. But neither can a last-hour decline that probes last night's lows down to 1993.50. Only exiting this afternoon's bias environment above the noon hour's 2050.00 high would make a rally leg likely.

Friday afternoon's gained traction in a hard fought battle that barely probed 2035.00 and 2036.00 relevant prior lows at the bias environment exit and the final hour's entry. The 3:10-3:20 timing window was much more decisive, dropping more than 10 points to fresh session post-open lows at 2022.25. That retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the 66-point rally from overnight lows. And then some, suggesting that lower price would be met -- at least, undermining the sponsorship of any reaction up. Undermining the reaction's sponsorship didn't prevent attacking 2040.00, 17 points off the low. That was similar in principle to the earlier blip-up to 2038.00. The afternoon's bias-down detour was similar, too. Hope springs eternal. The reaction's resolution was similar, too. Already retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} into the cash session close, fresh lows were probed down to 2016.25. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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