Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 08-15-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's open was just 1 point under Sunday night's 2455.50 high. The overnight rally resumed immediately, up to the morning's 2466.50 high. Narrow ranging was supported by the recovery's 2463.00 likeliest objective. Closing above it would have put into play the next higher objective at 2471.00-2473.50 -- which it was, but not decisively. However, 2459.00 was recovered, which jeopardizes Thursday's trend change signal. Overnight action's new info... Not being triggered decisively didn't prevent the 2471.00-2473.50 target from being met, but it might ensure its resistance holds. A surge began simultaneously with Asia's opens. It extended without hesitation up to 2473.25. The trend didn't delay reversing back down, into and out of Europe's opens, piercing yesterday's highs down to 24165.00. A reaction has bounced up to 2470.00, retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the reversal down. If, then... Thursday's trend change signal would be saved either by Tuesday's open breaking back under 2459.00, or by closing under Tuesday under Monday's 2454.00 low. Overnight action suggests that the open is safe, unless the reversal down were to resume soon. Retesting the overnight high would still encounter the same resistance, with no greater likelihood of exceeding it. Even if sellers aren't controlling the open, just exiting the morning bias environment in negative territory would keep alive the downside potential. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2469.25 would be likely to trigger the 2467.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2466.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday's morning market tour interesting the next tire objective after 63 which was actually supportive yesterday if you can see on the three minute chart supportive and then pierced very late in the day momentarily before returning to the ranges upper end and closing above sixty three overlapping it's on a consolidation utilizing it to not decisively recovering and not to the point where we could reliably expect the next hour objective de me mad at 7173 50 but still being recovered at least led to with ages opens a test of 7173 actually 7350 which was test to do with in three Tix at the 24 also tested was the bias of Target and have the same outcome involved in that means today is and add pound had an opportunity pretty good opportunity here to hold the same 1:30 support but this Gap outstanding that wants to be filled really taking its time explaining that yesterday's inside session didn't indicate necessarily that the pattern was breaking lower that's ineffectual pessimism that as I described yesterday it really stopped short of being optimal ineffectual pessimism because there was no actual test of a prior load Gap Town and spent the entire session negative territory that was but it didn't Trend down so ineffectual pessimism could have been a little more so if one other feature that is probing April oh and then recovering were present but it wasn't so the dollar is been rallying overnight pretty much on again less North Korea or less bearish Outlook from North Korea testing support it doesn't help the Bears case for the purpose of the top but it does require if there is no topping here for there to be almost immediate recovery open this morning a new one got to get back out above 1285 and above 1290 so absent an immediate pretty much immediate recovery above 1290 the risk is that this test of 12 8150 the support weird that might happen once again 1305 leaving a gap so the burden of proof is on overnight they're not testing support how much.

Overnight rally fulfills target, attracts sellers. Any influence of overnight price action on intraday must be obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. So, meeting the 2471.00-2473.50 objective overnight and already retracing it left the open two divergent options.

The first option was to repeat the rally. The 2471.00-2473.50 objective is still resistance, but it can at least be retested intraday. The challenge was a pre-open bounce that already had retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to the overnight high. That's significant resistance. And it held.

The second option was to extend the overnight reversal down. More so, not to allow the opening 15 minutes to create any reversal setup, let alone to recover any relevant resistance.

The latter option developed, dipping back into yesterday afternoon's range. And then deeper to its lower-end at 2462.50. Bounces have resolved down, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2459.00 bias-down signal, which has now been attacked to within 1 point. By the way, testing 0the 2472.50 bias-up signal overnight doesn't equate to testing it intraday. So, it wasn't rejected intraday, and an offsetting test of the 2453.00 bias-down target is not required. But it's still likely if 2459.00 is broken going into or coming out of the noon hour. Otherwise, we can't yet rule out  a bigger recovery.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2468.00 2466.75 ...would target 2473.00  2471.75 Bias-down: under 2461.00 2459.75 ...would target 2454.50 2453.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering above the trend change signal. Last Thursday's trend change signal triggered by closing under 2459.00. That is the interim low between the rally's last two highs. Closing above it yesterday threatened to invalidate the signal, which would be done by a second consecutive close above it. Opportunities to reconfirm the trend change signal have been slipping by. Opening back under 2459.00, and entering or exiting the noon hour back under it, both have failed. But each window did attack 2459.00. Closing back under 2459.00 would still be valid, but would not allow any delay to extending down Wednesday. Back under 2461.50 would at least target a test of 2459.00, but not necessarily close under it. Meanwhile, back above 2464.50 and 2467.00 would increasingly point higher.

"Break" may be too harsh a word for describing Tuesday's late-afternoon break higher. It was more of a gentle snap, as the elements forming it were less than optimal. Its potential to test the morning's 2468.50 high was attacked to within 1 point. Further upside potential didn't just fail to materialize. It was rejected by a sudden, steep and substantial reaction down to 2463.00. That's a second consecutive session of failing to close decisively above 2463.00. It's also a close under Monday's highs. And it's all that, after having tested 2471.00-2473.50 overnight. Tuesday's intraday attempt to reject Thursday's trend change signal failed. But it remains at risk of failing since sellers didn't recapture 2459.00, despite its test being "unfinished business below" from the morning's bias parameters. No bearish resolution prevents an interim retest of Tuesday night's 2471.00-2473.50 high -- but its retest must be rejected aggressively if at all. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2470.00  2468.50 ...would target  2475.50  2474.00 Bias-down: under  2462.25 2460.75 ...would target  2455.25  2453.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.